Minutes to Midnight

[Edgeofnight]

Oh boy, what about obstruction cases?

Democrats are taking things as a "one step at a time" manner.  Basically, they are trying to force Trump in front of them as many times as they can for a variety of different reasons. One, it increases the amount of bad press around the President, and two it increases the odds that he screws something up. Democrats also don't want to overshoot without a comfortable senate majority. They still need to keep Manchin and McCaskill and now Bredesen on board with their approach.

I see, but 2020 is a favorable map correct? And how is Sen. Warner doing as Chairman of Senate Intelligence Committee? Did they ever release their findings?

Yes, but even with a favorable map, they aren't gonna gain the 16 seats needed. Also no, the Senate Intelligence Committee has never released any findings to the public.

[Edgeofnight]

SUPER TUESDAY 2020 RESULTS

DEMOCRATIC:
Alabama: Harris (34), Biden (11), Sanders (4), Gillibrand (4)
Arizona: Harris (30), Sanders (18), Biden (14), Gillibrand (13)
Arkansas: Harris (19), Biden ( 8 ), Gillibrand (5), Sanders (0)
California: Harris (240), Sanders (117), Biden (67), Gillibrand (51)
Colorado: Sanders (32), Biden (17), Harris (9), Gillibrand ( 8 )
Massachusetts: Sanders (50), Gillibrand (26), Biden (12), Harris (11)
Minnesota: Sanders (26), Gillibrand (26), Biden (14), Harris (11)
Oklahoma: Sanders (23), Biden (9), Gillibrand (3), Harris (3)
Tennessee: Biden (29), Harris (17), Sanders (16), Gillibrand (5)
Texas: Biden (98), Harris (53), Sanders (42), Gillibrand (29)
Vermont: Sanders (16), Biden (0), Gillibrand (0), Harris (0)
Virginia: Biden (31), Gillibrand (28), Sanders (21), Harris (12)




Current Primary map, shaded according Winner's popular vote percentage.
Current Delegate Count:
2,382 Needed for the nomination
Sen. Kamala Harris --470 Delegates
Sen. Bernie Sanders -- 406 Delegates
Fmr. VP Joe Biden -- 354 Delegates
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 203 Delegates
Sen. Elizabeth Warren -- 19 Delegates
Sen Cory Booker -- 15 Delegates

[Edgeofnight]

SUPER TUESDAY 2020 RESULTS

REPUBLICAN:

Alabama: Trump (37), Flake (13)
Arkansas: Trump (27), Flake (10)
California: Trump (102), Flake (70)
Colorado: Trump (30), Flake (7)
Georgia: Trump (51), Flake (22)
Massachusetts: Trump (25), Flake (17)
Minnesota: Trump (29), Flake (9)
North Dakota: Trump (28), Flake (0)
Oklahoma: Trump (30), Flake (10)
Tennessee:  Trump (35), Flake (23)
Texas: Trump (102), Flake (54)
Vermont: Trump (9), Flake (7)
Virginia: Trump (27), Flake (22)
Wyoming: Trump (11), Flake (0)

 Delegate Count:
1,237 Delegates Needed
Pres. Donald Trump -- 653
Fmr. Sen. Jeff Flake -- 287

[Edgeofnight]

2020 Republican Primaries Wrap Up:

There isn’t much that else to say about the Republican Primaries. Flake won his first victory in the DC primary, taking 59% of the vote to the President's 40%.  He then pulled off another victory later in the Utah Caucus, taking 54% of the vote to Trump’s 46%. The only other contest he would win would be the Puerto Rico Caucus, with an overwhelming 73%. But that was all for the insurgent Senator. His candidacy was weak from the start, but all things considered, Flake’s challenge to Trump over performed expectations. After Spending 15 Million, Flake walked away with the third of the vote and a third of the delegates.

The President’s campaign was not without stumbles. Campaign Chairman Kris Kobach was a controversial character. Chris Christie announced that he would depart from his position as White House Chief of Staff after the end of the Convention. Trump’s continued legal battle with Congressional Democrats continually dragged the President down. But above all was a memo published in the NYT, allegedly authored by Kris Kobach, that advocated for the replacement of Vice President Mike Pence. The memo alleged that Pence’s “personal ambition” got in the way of the President, and alleged that Pence was “disloyal” to the president. The memo suggested Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Secretary of Defense James Mattis, fmr. Governor Rick Scott, among numerous others.

Trump called the memo a complete falsity, Kobach said that he had never seen the memo before,  and Pence himself said “there was 0 doubt he would be renominated.” But Pence’s exclusion from the “Campaign’s inner Circle” only fueled the fire. Regardless,Pence’s fate would be decided at the convention.

Trump Approval Rating -- May 2020 Average:
Disapprove -- 59.3%
Approve -- 35.6%
Unsure/Other -- 4.8%

[Edgeofnight]

2020 Democratic Primaries Wrap Up

Kamala Harris came out of Super Tuesday as the third major Democrat. Gillibrand’s exit from the race, and Harris’ slight lead in the delegate count, where both thought to be points in the California Senator’s favor. But many pundits noted that her lead was weak, all things considered. She captured a large amount of delegates from a victory in her home state, but her lead over Sanders was double digits. Harris and Sanders would trade wins with each other, with Biden placing second or third in every race. The only March contest that Biden would walk away with a win in was North Carolina, where he won a surprising and narrow victory over Harris. Pundits and analysts noted that what kept Biden in the race where his strong second place showings in many states. He took second in Ohio, Maine, and Mississippi. But he trailed the other two in delegate count throughout the race.

April would be the deciding moment in the race. Sanders opened the month with Victories in Wyoming and Wisconsin, finally and narrowly surpassing Harris as the leading Candidate. All three candidates heavily targeted New York. In the end, Sanders carried the Empire State with 41% of the vote, to Harris’ 30% and Biden’s 29%. The victory was stronger than expected, and widened Sanders lead over Harris. On the April 29th contests, Biden stumbled his way to a victory in Pennsylvania, yet another upset win for the former Vice President. He also carried his Home state of Delaware, while Sanders carried Connecticut and Rhode Island, two minor prizes, and Harris took Maryland. But, with most of the Contests done, Sanders still carried the lead in delegates, albeit by a narrow margin. The remaining contests would almost certainly favor him.

Sanders rolled through with four decisive victories in Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky, and Oregon. His streak was only interrupted by Biden wins in the territories.As the contests rolled into June, Vice President Biden ended his campaign, and released his delegates. He made this decision, he claims, to avoid a protracted convention fight. “There are more important things at stake in this election.” Kamala Harris withdrew, but did not release her delegates. Not that it mattered in the end. 

Senator Bernie Sanders was the presumptive Democratic nominee.

[Edgeofnight]

New poll time! How do you all want to see the General election unfold?

https://www.strawpoll.me/16505202

[Edgeofnight]

BREAKING NEWS: Fmr. Ohio Governor John Kasich Announces entry into 2020 Election.

John Kasich has confirmed rumors that he will run a third party presidential campaign. The former Ohio Governor has long styled himself as a critic of President Trump, and made it clear in his announcement speech that he was no fan of either candidate. The Ohio Governor has branded himself as the choice for “average” Americans and a “get things done moderate.” The campaign is currently searching for a Vice Presidential candidate to run with them.

[KaiserDave]

President Sanders then

[Cold War Liberal]

Iiiiiiiick Sanders...

Guess I'll vote for him, but part of me wants to vote for Kasich out of spite. He's too conservative tho, so Sanders it is.

[OBD]

The Republican party split can only help Sanders, unless Kasich takes a significant amount of the moderate vote.

[Edgeofnight]

Bernie Sanders campaign releases Vice Presidential Shortlist:

First on the list is Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown. For obvious reasons, Brown is considered a strong potential VP pick. He is a strong liberal who is deeply popular in a critical swing state. But there are also concerns about putting two old men on the same ticket together.

Next on the list is fmr. Hud Secretary Julian Castro. Castro is widely seen as an up-and-comer in the party, and it’s easy to see why. He is young, Charismatic, and Latino. He would also be seen as an olive branch to the Democratic establishment. However, there are concerns over Castro’s experience. His only positions of Government have been in Mayoral Politics and as Obama’s HUD secretary.

The next candidate is an obvious one: Hawaii Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard. Gabbard has long been a vocal Sanders supporter, and brings the advantage of a young, female voice to the ticket. She also has a military background that may assist Sanders. But there are concerns over some of her more controversial actions, and some see her as being cozy with Dictators like Assad, that may bring controversy to the ticket.

Kamala Harris is also an obvious choice. The runner up in the primaries, she brings many of the same advantages that Tulsi Gabbard brings, but without a lot of the controversy. She is not without her flaws. Her campaign struggled to reach out to the Rust Belt voters, a concern that may translate to the General election.

Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar was widely seen as a strong candidate for President, but a mismanaged campaign and a crowded field stalled her chances from the start. Still, she is popular in a state that Swung hard to Trump in 2016, and could help with Women Turnout. But there are concerns that she is a bit too “boring” for the ticket. She isn’t a firebrand like Gabbard and others, but that isn’t always a bad thing.

Virginia Governor Ralph Northam might be surprised that he is being considered, and he is a bit of an odd ball pick. Still, the Two-year Governor of Virginia has had a strong first half of his term, and his record of successes is nothing to scoff at. There isn’t much bad about Northam, but there are some who are concerned that he would be branded as “Tim Kaine 2.0”, but those are likely overblown.

Louisiana Congressman Cedric Richmond could be another pick to help boost black turnout. He isn’t really well known, but so are many VP picks. He is young and fairly charismatic, and would represent the growing Democratic Strength in the Southern US. But, he is seen as unlikely to accept, even if he was offered, because of his position of Leadership in the House.

Rounding out the list is Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren. A strong Sanders ally, she is seen as a strong pick to boost turnout among the Democratic base. Still, there is concern that she doesn’t bring enough geographic or ideological balance to the ticket.

Not sure when the next update will be. I've had this one written for a while now, but just never got around to posting it. These next few weeks are gonna be crazy for me, but I'm gonna try and post one update a week at least.

[America Needs R'hllor]

I hope Sanders picks Klobucher. Anyway, I'd be very unenthusiastic about the Democratic ticket and would probably support it but reluctantly.

[Lord Admirale]

I hope Sanders picks Klobucher. Anyway, I'd be very unenthusiastic about the Democratic ticket and would probably support it but reluctantly.

[scutosaurus]

I hope Sanders picks Klobucher. Anyway, I'd be very unenthusiastic about the Democratic ticket and would probably support it but reluctantly.

I agree with this, although I'd support Kasich if Sanders were to pick Gabbard as his running mate.

[Edgeofnight]

Forgot to include this:

2020 Presidential Polling: Nationwide
MOE -- 3%
Bernie Sanders -- 49%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence* -- 33%
John Kaisch -- 9%
Undecided -- 9%

2020 Presidential Polling: Pennsylvania
MOE -- 4%
Bernie Sanders -- 47%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence* -- 36%
John Kaisch -- 10%
Undecided -- 7%

2020 Presidential Polling: Michigan
MOE -- 3%
Bernie Sanders -- 46%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence* -- 35%
John Kaisch -- 11%
Undecided -- 8%

2020 Presidential Polling: Ohio
MOE -- 4%
Bernie Sanders -- 35%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence* -- 30%
John Kaisch -- 26%
Undecided -- 9%

[KaiserDave]

Northam!!!!

[Edgeofnight]

I've decided to split up updates into shorter pieces to get them out quicker. Otherwise, the gap between them might grow to be a week or more between updates. With the shortened updates, I should be able to get one out every three days or so. At least thats my hope.

Kasich picks Fmr. New York Congressman Richard Hanna as running mate

In a campaign that has struggled to find a running mate, John Kasich has finally settled on Fmr. New York Congressman Richard Hanna. Hanna is most famous for endorsing Hillary Clinton in 2016 and John Delaney in 2020, before becoming a prominent advocate of Senator Jeff Flake’s bumbled insurgency.


2020 Presidential Polling: Nationwide
MOE -- 4%
Bernie Sanders -- 48% (-2%)
Donald Trump/Mike Pence* -- 33% (-1%)
John Kaisch/Richard Hanna -- 11% (+2%)
Undecided -- 8% (-1%)

2020 Presidential Polling: Maine
MOE -- 3%
Bernie Sanders -- 45%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence* -- 38%
John Kaisch/Richard Hanna -- 10%
Undecided -- 7%

2020 Presidential Polling: New Hampshire
MOE -- 2%
Bernie Sanders -- 44%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence* -- 38%
John Kaisch/Richard Hanna -- 12%
Undecided -- 6%

2020 Presidential Polling: New York
MOE -- 3%
Bernie Sanders -- 51%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence* -- 32%
John Kaisch/Richard Hanna -- 11%
Undecided -- 6%

2020 Presidential Polling: Utah
MOE -- 2%
John Kaisch/Richard Hanna -- 32%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence* -- 32%
Bernie Sanders -- 29%
Undecided -- 7%

2020 Presidential Polling: Ohio
MOE -- 4%
Bernie Sanders -- 33% (-2%)
Donald Trump/Mike Pence* -- 30% (--)
John Kaisch/Richard Hanna -- 30% (+4%)
Undecided -- 7% (-2%)

Senator Bernie Sanders (D-VT) -- ~308 Electoral Votes
President Donald Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN) -- ~155 Electoral Votes
Fmr. Governor John Kasich (SAM-OH)/Fmr. Congressman Richard Hanna(SAM-NY) -- ~0 Electoral Votes

538 Chances of Winning:
Bernie Sanders -- 68.8%
Donald Trump -- 27.4%
John Kasich -- 2.8%
No Winner -- 1.0%

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Sanders/Klobuchar

[Edgeofnight]

Sanders Shortlist narrowed down to 3 Names: Klobuchar, Castro, and Gabbard

Reports indicate that the Vermont Senator is still strongly considering three names: Tulsi Gabbard, Amy Klobuchar, and Julian Castro. Those close to the Senator suggest that he is leaning towards Gabbard, but note that his mind is far from made up.

[KaiserDave]

Picking Gabbard would screw up an otherwise shoo-in victory

[Edgeofnight]

House Passes Congressional Censure of Trump

The House of Representatives has passed a formal congressional censure of President Trump today over his connection to his Personal Attorney’s payoff to porn star Stormy Daniels. Congressman Cummings has said that the House is still “seriously considering impeachment,” and that he is in active communication with the President's attorney's to call on him to testify.

[Edgeofnight]

Sanders picks Gabbard for Vice President.

The Democratic presidential nominee has tapped Hawaii Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard as his running mate ahead of the Democratic National Convention. The Sanders campaign released a statement, praising Gabbard's record, and calling her a "consistent and vocal advocate for the American people."

2020 Presidential Polling: Nationwide
MOE -- 3%
Bernie Sanders/Tulsi Gabbard -- 49% (+1%)
Donald Trump/Mike Pence* -- 34% (+1%)
John Kasich/Richard Hanna -- 10% (-1%
Undecided/Others -- 7% (-1%)

2020 Presidential Polling: Alaska (Tossup)
MOE -- 4%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence* -- 42%
Bernie Sanders/Tulsi Gabbard -- 39%
John Kasich/Richard Hanna -- 9%
Undecided/Others -- 10%

2020 Presidential Polling: Arizona (Tossup)
MOE -- 2%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence* -- 40%
Bernie Sanders/Tulsi Gabbard -- 40%
John Kasich/Richard Hanna -- 11%
Undecided/Others -- 9%

2020 Presidential Polling: Florida (Lean D)
MOE -- 3%
Bernie Sanders/Tulsi Gabbard -- 43%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence* -- 36%
John Kasich/Richard Hanna -- 13%
Undecided/Others -- 8%

2020 Presidential Polling: Georgia (Tossup)
MOE -- 2%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence* -- 41%
Bernie Sanders/Tulsi Gabbard -- 41%
John Kasich/Richard Hanna -- 11%
Undecided/Others -- 7%

2020 Presidential Polling: Iowa (Lean D)
MOE -- 4%
Bernie Sanders/Tulsi Gabbard -- 46%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence* -- 36%
John Kasich/Richard Hanna -- 13%
Undecided/Others -- 5%

2020 Presidential Polling: Maine's Second Congressional District (Lean D)
MOE -- 3%
Bernie Sanders/Tulsi Gabbard -- 42%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence* -- 37%
John Kasich/Richard Hanna -- 12%
Undecided/Others -- 9%

2020 Presidential Polling: Michigan (Lean D)
MOE -- 4%
Bernie Sanders/Tulsi Gabbard -- 45%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence* -- 37%
John Kasich/Richard Hanna -- 10%
Undecided/Others -- 8%


2020 Presidential Polling: Missouri (Lean R)
MOE -- 3%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence* -- 42%
Bernie Sanders/Tulsi Gabbard -- 38%
John Kasich/Richard Hanna -- 12%
Undecided/Others -- 8%

2020 Presidential Polling: Montana (Lean R)
MOE -- 3%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence* -- 44%
Bernie Sanders/Tulsi Gabbard -- 40%
John Kasich/Richard Hanna -- 9%
Undecided/Others -- 7%

2020 Presidential Polling: New Hampshire (Lean D)
MOE -- 4%
Bernie Sanders/Tulsi Gabbard -- 46%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence* -- 40%
John Kasich/Richard Hanna -- 8%
Undecided/Others -- 6%

2020 Presidential Polling: North Carolina (Lean D)
MOE -- 3%
Bernie Sanders/Tulsi Gabbard -- 44%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence* -- 41%
John Kasich/Richard Hanna -- 9%
Undecided/Others -- 6%

2020 Presidential Polling: Ohio (Tossup)
MOE -- 3%
John Kasich/Richard Hanna -- 33%
Bernie Sanders/Tulsi Gabbard -- 31%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence* -- 29%
Undecided/Others -- 7%

2020 Presidential Polling: Pennsylvania (Lean D)
MOE -- 5%
Bernie Sanders/Tulsi Gabbard -- 46%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence* -- 39%
John Kasich/Richard Hanna -- 7%
Undecided/Others -- 8%

2020 Presidential Polling: Texas (Lean R)
MOE - 3%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence* -- 44%
Bernie Sanders/Tulsi Gabbard -- 39%
John Kasich/Richard Hanna -- 10%
Undecided/Others -- 7%

2020 Presidential Polling: Utah (Tossup)
MOE -- 2%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence* -- 32%
Bernie Sanders/Tulsi Gabbard -- 30%
John Kasich/Richard Hanna -- 29%
Undecided/Others -- 11%

2020 Presidential Polling: Wisconsin (Lean D)
MOE -- 4%
Bernie Sanders/Tulsi Gabbard -- 43%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence* -- 37%
John Kasich/Richard Hanna -- 11%
Undecided/Others -- 9%

Sen. Bernie Sanders/ Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- ~329 Electoral Votes (188 Safe, 40 Likely, 101 Lean)
Pres. Donald Trump/Vice Pres. Mike Pence -- ~154 Electoral Votes (71 Safe, 32 Likely, 51 Lean)
Fmr. Gov. John Kasich/Fmr. Rep Richard Hanna -- ~0 Electoral Votes
Tossup -- 55 Electoral Votes

538 Chances of Winning:
Bernie Sanders -- 71.2%
Donald Trump -- 27.0%
John Kasich -- 1.4%
No Winner -- .4%


Next Part: DNC

[OBD]

That's it voting Kasich

[KaiserDave]

K I be voting Kasich now. Sanders I can do, Gabbard, nope.

[America Needs R'hllor]

This ticket is just too dangerous for me. Kasich in states where he can win, Trump in Trump vs Sanders states.