Will this year's "October surprise" be a conviction of Trump in one or more cases?

[Obama24]

I am not a lawyer, so forgive me if I come off ignorant, but given the timeline of justice, is it possible Trump will be convicted in one or more trials right around October?

I feel that such would do a fatal blow to his campaign and would allow Biden to cruise to a second term.

[Progressive Pessimist]

A conviction in the New York trial might come earlier than that.

[Obama24]

A conviction in the New York trial might come earlier than that.

If the trial's ending could be delayed til the fall somehow, even say until September, you'd have an equivalent of James Comey's 2016 moment, I feel - a decisive blow to the campaign.

If the trial concludes in June, I feel to the low attention span voter it'll be old news by November.

If it concludes in June and Biden spends the next five months making the conviction the centerpiece of his campaign, it won't be a good look. It'll look to your average American like the incumbent kicking the opponent while he's already down. Also, 6 months of hearing "Trump is a felon" will get old after a while to your average Joe, non political voter.

But if it concludes in September or October and it becomes the focus from then to November, it could enable Biden to win.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I think a more likely October Surprise will be Cannon dismissing the charges against him (with or without prejudice) during the last week of October, so that he can claim he was "found completely innocent" right before Election Day.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Couldn’t defeat Trump without the Covid hysteria, and Big Tech suppression in 2020.

And still can’t defeat Trump without more shenanigans in 2024.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A conviction wouldn't really be a surprise, although it would undoubtedly be bad news for Trump's electoral prospects.

My candidate for an October (or earlier) surprise is the long-delayed release of the Epstein grand jury files in Florida, which is slated to take place some time after July 1.  Given Trump's known history with Epstein and Maxwell, there's a decent chance that he's named in them in some fashion.