AP Poll: Support for SSM closely divided; majority prioritize religious freedom (user search)
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  AP Poll: Support for SSM closely divided; majority prioritize religious freedom (search mode)
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Author Topic: AP Poll: Support for SSM closely divided; majority prioritize religious freedom  (Read 1870 times)
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shua
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« on: July 20, 2015, 11:35:33 AM »

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/a688e500e35e4cd0a7f927e02c33b8ea/ap-poll-sharp-divisions-after-high-court-backs-gay-marriage
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🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
shua
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E: 1.29, S: -0.70

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« Reply #1 on: July 20, 2015, 12:24:40 PM »

Which contradicts virtually all other polls on the matter.

This is the first poll taken post Obergfell v. Hodges though.

Yes, we can expect there might well be an impact.  The last poll in April from Ap-GfK had a 12 point gap in favor - I think that was not too far off from other polls at the time - as opposed to a 2 now point in favor now.  Admittedly, I'm not aware of what GfK's track record is on polling.  Here's (.pdf) the detailed results for any who want to investigate this poll. 
The results from the religious liberty questions were within the general range of what I've seen elsewhere.
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shua
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Posts: 25,708
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Political Matrix
E: 1.29, S: -0.70

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« Reply #2 on: July 20, 2015, 02:50:57 PM »

It's all about the spin. 47% saying someone with religious objections should be required to perform an SSM is shockingly high IMO.

But yea, AP's poll looks to be behind others anyway if it was only at 48% support SSM prior to the ruling. Gallup shows the support at 58-40 right now.

I'm not sure what you mean by spin here, if you look at how the questions were worded. When lawmakers in various states have tried to say that local officials did not have to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples if they had a religious objection, it was considered extreme and many Republicans even would not have any part of it.

Gallup poll it is clear pushes leaners a great deal more than GfK does.  I've seen some numbers that suggest those who don't have a strong opinion tend to go in the direction of supporting SSM when pushed to come down one way or another.
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🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
shua
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Posts: 25,708
Nepal


Political Matrix
E: 1.29, S: -0.70

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« Reply #3 on: July 20, 2015, 08:29:04 PM »
« Edited: July 20, 2015, 08:31:53 PM by shua »


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Well, we know what this means. 42-40 means that they don't push leaners at all, if 18% of the public doesn't answer. What that means is that the poll is showing 42% more or less solid support of SSM, 40% opposition, and 18% wavering. This is totally believable to me, working under the assumption that, when push comes to shove the 18% will go "meh" and walk away rather than passionately oppose it. Post-Obgerfell, apathy is de facto support of SSM, much like pre-Obgerfell, apathy was de facto opposition to SSM: status quo is the result of apathy and national SSM is the status quo now.

40% of the population strongly opposing SSM makes sense alongside earlier polls.

If you compare the polls, the trend for leaners, when pushed, to support it, has been there for a year or more.  It's not a post-Obgerfell phenom.

The poll in April had opposition in the mid-30s, so this poll is a return to the results they found in January.


I wouldn't consider issuing a license to be equivalent to officiating at the ceremony.

This.

Especially if your job is to issue licenses to people according to the law of the land, as opposed to performing marriages according to the doctrines of your church. People keep trying to elide these two.

Who is trying to elide these two?
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