Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/Ondrejcsak/status/1497524166160965636
Slovakia punching way above its weight.

Meanwhile Germany gave 5,000 helmets.

Russia hasn't been adverse from sabotaging Western Arms depots in the past, including one right over the Slovakia border during the 2014 Ukraine War...

https://www.rferl.org/a/czech-expulsions-bulgaria-gebrev-russia-gru-intelligence-explosion-spy-scandal/31209960.html

[NOVA Green]

Illegal anti-war protests have continued in Russia with at least 325 arrests made in 30 cities and towns yesterday according to the Washington Post:

"...And others played a game of cat and mouse with police. Instead of massing in one place — difficult in Moscow or St. Petersburg, given the massive deployments of riot police — many protests were smaller, some just a few dozen people, moving from place to place to avoid arrest.

Even so, more than 325 protesters were arrested in 30 cities and towns across Russia on Saturday, almost half of them in Moscow, according to the rights group OVD-Info. In the three days since the invasion of Ukraine began, more than 2,776 people have been arrested in protests across the country..."



https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/26/russia-ukraine-war-news-updates/#link-NDNXJEQL3RBSLOCS4I64VZ4AAU

[NOVA Green]

Putin's actions in Ukraine are undermining far right political parties, including in France and Italy:



https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/26/world/europe/russia-putin-matteo-salvini-marine-le-pen.html

[NOVA Green]

Good profile of the rising strength of civilian volunteers and militia groups in the defense of Kiev.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/26/world/europe/ukraine-russia-civilian-military.html

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile.... cyber attacks continue to hit Russian Government websites Saturday:

"Russian Government Websites Suffer Disruptions

The main Kremlin website and other Russian government websites were inaccessible Saturday amid reports of cyberattacks targeting Moscow in retaliation for its invasion of Ukraine.

“Various #Russia government websites including the Kremlin, State Duma and Ministry of Defense are again down,” Netblocks, an internet observatory that monitors global traffic outages, said on Twitter. Network data was “consistent with previous cyberattacks,” it said.

It wasn’t immediately clear who was responsible for the disruption or what caused the outages. Anonymous, a loosely organized group that claims to engage in activist-oriented hacking campaigns, said on Twitter it had “ongoing operations” against Russia’s government websites and took credit for other hacking activity

... "




https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-02-26/card/russian-government-websites-suffer-disruptions-UpQXfZO7yIMCDR5yY4g9

[NOVA Green]

Some additional info from the Wall Street Journal on the Battle for Kiev and elsewhere...

"...A Russian column that attempted to advance from the West, on the highway linking Kyiv to Lviv, was destroyed in nighttime fighting inside Kyiv, witnesses said. Bodies lay on the ground, amid the smoldering remains of armored vehicles and trucks. Presumed Russian infiltrators, traveling in civilian vehicles, were also gunned down by Ukrainian troops as they tried to approach the Ukrainian Parliament building, the witnesses said. Intense firefights were reported in other locations throughout the capital.

After daybreak on Saturday, Ukrainian regular troops and volunteers of the newly formed Territorial Defense force regained the upper hand, erecting roadblocks, firing positions and other fortifications around the city, particularly in the government district and near bridges spanning the Dnipro river. Trucks accompanied by police ferried ammunition as civilians lined up patiently in grocery stores, at pharmacies and teller machines.

A large supermarket on Kyiv’s Antonovycha street was well stocked, with fresh bread, pineapples and Italian cheese, and some of the checkout lanes still accepted Apple Pay. A handful of basement bars reopened as makeshift shelters, serving espressos before the 5 p.m. curfew kicked in. At one bar, customers were asked to show their passports to prove that they weren’t Russian citizens.

The biggest lines in the Ukrainian capital were at the recruitment centers for the Territorial Defense. At one sports facility converted for this purpose, several hundred volunteers, commanded by career military officers, loaded crates of ammunition into civilian vehicles and sped off to their positions...

...

South of Kyiv, Russian airborne troops attempted a landing in the strategic town of Vasylkiv, the location of a Ukrainian military airfield. Firefights broke out during the night but by morning hundreds of Ukrainian troops and irregular volunteers armed with assault rifles patrolled Vasylkiv’s main road. Along the highway running between Kyiv and Odessa near Vasylkiv, security forces and local volunteers wearing armbands were looking for stray Russian troops who might be hiding in the woods.

Ukrainian soldiers said they had driven off most of the Russian landing force in Vasylkiv. Kyiv also said Ukrainian forces had downed a Russian Il-76 transport plane full of airborne troops near Vasylkiv. That claim couldn’t be independently confirmed. In the late morning, contrails of two jet fighters engaging in a dogfight could be seen in the blue skies above the town.

..."





https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-assault-on-ukraine-presses-forward-as-street-battles-rage-in-kyiv-11645864200

[NOVA Green]

Some dude on an emo Facebook group actually went through a lot of trouble to reach out to members of a Ukrainian emo band, and confirmed that they are all safe and OK for now. They have fled to Western Ukraine.

Happy to hear they are well...

Still might be interesting had they chosen to join the volunteer resistance.

"Russian Battalion overrun by Ukranian Emos with guns" after being deafened by disturbing musical barrage"

[NOVA Green]

Russia strikes Moldovan and Panamanian owned / registered ships in the Black Sea:

"Missiles strike ships in the Black Sea, Ukrainian company says

By Marisa Iati3:22 p.m.

A cargo ship and an oil tanker off the southern tip of Ukraine in the Black Sea were struck by missiles Friday, sparking fires, a Ukrainian shipping company said.

At about 12:10 p.m. local time, missiles hit the bunker of the Moldovan-registered vessel Millennium Spirit, according to a statement from Vladimir Ivantsov, manager of Stark Shipping Ukraine.

The ship was targeted, Ivantsov said, because it was carrying about 600 metric tons of fuel for Ukrainian forces.

...."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/26/russia-ukraine-war-news-updates/#link-7K2JK66TAJAXTK5GF7OBO6XA5U

[NOVA Green]

And the boycott of Russian owned activities is now impacting British Football...

"Chelsea’s Owner Distances Himself From Club Amid Scrutiny of Russian Investments

LONDON—Roman Abramovich, the Russian billionaire owner of English soccer club Chelsea FC, said Saturday that he would turn over “stewardship and care” of the team to the trustees of the club’s charitable foundation as the U.K. cracks down on Russian investment.

Mr. Abramovich, who has owned Chelsea since 2003 and turned it into one of the juggernauts of European soccer through lavish spending, made the decision to distance himself from his most public asset just days after the U.K. announced initial sanctions against Russia following the country’s invasion of Ukraine. Under the arrangement, he would remain Chelsea’s owner.

“I believe that currently they are in the best position to look after the interests of the club, players, staff and fans,” he wrote of the trustees in a brief statement.

Though Mr. Abramovich wasn’t one of the Russian oligarchs targeted by the U.K. government this week, he did butt heads with Prime Minister Theresa May’s administration in 2018, when it blocked his British visa renewal. That led Mr. Abramovich, who is no longer based in London, to cancel plans to spend more than $1 billion on building Chelsea a new stadium in the British capital.

...."


https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-02-26/card/chelsea-s-owner-distances-himself-from-club-amid-scrutiny-of-russian-investments-946GhhzayNRz0o5YC25g

[NOVA Green]

Just heard on CNN that Russia has destroyed the dam northwest of Kiev.

Haven't seen anything confirmed on that, although Russia did destroy a dam that was built in 2014 to block off water to Crimea earlier today.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-02-26/russian-troops-destroy-ukrainian-dam-that-blocked-water-to-crimea-ria

[NOVA Green]

We should sanction the hell out of Belarus too and fund a potential coop there

Doesn't Belarus still have farmer cooperatives from the old Soviet days?

[NOVA Green]

So the saga of "Snake Island" and the valiant Ukranian defenders continues:

Courtesy of CNN from 1 hour and ten minutes ago:

"1 hr 10 min ago
Pentagon denies Russia's claim that it's "highly likely" US used surveillance drones to help Ukrainian navy

From CNN’s Nathan Hodge and Vasco Cotovio in Moscow and Oren Lieberman at the Pentagon

The Pentagon has denied a claim from the Russian Ministry of Defence saying it is "highly likely" that the United States used some of its surveillance drones flying over the Black Sea to help the Ukrainian Navy attack its vessels.

“On the evening of February 25, during the evacuation of 82 Ukrainian servicemen who voluntarily laid down their arms from Zmeiny [Zmiiny] Island, 16 boats of the Ukrainian Navy, using the 'swarm tactics,' tried to attack the ships of the Black Sea Fleet,” Russian defense ministry spokesperson Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said in a statement on Saturday. “During the attack by Ukrainian boats over the provocation area, US strategic unmanned aerial vehicles RQ-4 'Global Hawk' and MQ-9A 'Reaper' were overhead.”

“It is highly likely that it was American UAVs that directed Ukrainian boats at the ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet,” Konashenkov said.

Pentagon press secretary John Kirby denied the claims:

“Russian claims that the United States was involved in any way with Ukrainian naval operations near the Zmiiny Island are false. We did not provide ISR or any other support. Chalk this up to just one more lie by the Russian Ministry of Defense,” he told CNN.
Konashenkov also said that six boats of the Ukrainian navy were destroyed but that none of the 82 Ukrainian servicemen from the island, also known as Snake Island, were injured.

..."


https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-26-22/index.html

[NOVA Green]

Just heard on CNN that Russia has destroyed the dam northwest of Kiev.

Is there another Source?

Haven't seen anything yet on my regular subscription outlets (NYT, WP, WSJ) nor on the CNN website.

Could be that I misheard or it was framed as a hypothetical or misinformation crept in from Ukranian gvt sources?

Would imagine if true we would see this story gain more traction....

Take with giant bucket of salt, but certainly if Russia were to destroy the dam would be significant civilian impacts...

[NOVA Green]

We should sanction the hell out of Belarus too and fund a potential coop there

Doesn't Belarus still have farmer cooperatives from the old Soviet days?

Wouldn't surprise me.
Lukashenka has long tried to maintain stability relative to the Soviet status quo.

Speaking of Belarus, one drunk Belarusian soldier (accidentally?) walked into Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1497508010926690312?s=20&t=cUwMMC...

Someone had too much vodka...

Good thing that Ukranian Vodka these days are all going towards molotov cocktails and not into the gullets of the Ukranian Military and Civilian and Paramilitary defenders.

[NOVA Green]

Just heard on CNN that Russia has destroyed the dam northwest of Kiev.

Is there another Source?

I think I already read this earlier this morning or heard it on radio.

Well sounds like a Russia missile headed for the dam was shot down 11 hours ago... so not implausible since sounds like Russia has it on their target list of acceptable military options.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/ukraine-says-russian-missile-headed-for-water-reservoir-near-kyiv-shot-down/

[NOVA Green]

Ten people of "Greek origin" were killed by airstrikes per New York Times:

Ten civilians “of Greek origin” were killed by Russian airstrikes near the city of Mariupol, on Ukraine’s southeastern coast, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis of Greece said on Twitter. “Stop the bombing now!” he wrote. Earlier Saturday, Greece’s Foreign Ministry summoned Russia’s ambassador in Athens.

[NOVA Green]

New UN Vote upcoming calling for a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine:

"5 min ago

"U.S., Allies Consider New United Nations Vote Targeting Russia

By William Mauldin

The U.S. and its allies are seeking to bring a vote to the United Nations General Assembly calling on Russia to withdraw from Ukraine, according to Western diplomats, after Russia vetoed a similar resolution at the U.N. Security Council.

The Security Council, presided over by Russia this month, has scheduled a meeting for Sunday at 3 p.m. There, some council members are expected to press for an emergency special session of the General Assembly beginning Monday. Russia wouldn't be able to veto the emergency session because the vote would be procedural, according to the diplomats.

Unlike at the Security Council, resolutions that come before the members of the General Assembly aren't binding. Still, a successful vote can send a clear international message, and Russia wouldn't be able to veto a resolution at the General Assembly.

....

"



https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-02-26

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/MaxKennerly/status/1497643853851021314?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...

You know I just got back from having a cig after a few shots with my wife and was telling her my personal opinion that Putin likely isn't that good a chess player after all, despite all anecdotal evidence on his impressive CV.

I was "when was the last time you saw Putin playing a live chess game on Russian TV? His actions in Ukraine appear to be strategic and tactical blunder after blunder.... "

[NOVA Green]

US Military assessments of Russian Ukranian invasion update per CNN:

Apologies if it's an overquote, but CNN doesn't have a paid subscription and link is at bottom of post.

"Russia's invasion of Ukraine is encountering "stiffer than expected" resistance from the Ukrainian military as well as unexpected difficulties supplying its forces, two senior US officials with direct knowledge tell CNN.

On the battlefield, Russia is suffering heavier losses in personnel, armor and aircraft than expected. This is due, in part, to the fact Ukrainian air defenses have performed better than anticipated in pre-invasion US intelligence assessments. In addition, Russia has yet to establish air supremacy over Ukraine, a senior defense official said, as the Ukrainian Air Force and air defense systems fight for control of the airspace.

Ukrainian air defenses, including aircraft, do continue to be operable and continue to engage and deny access to Russian aircraft in places over the country,” the official said.
Without uncontested control of the skies, it becomes more difficult for an army on the move to see and strike targets from the air.

Officials caution this picture of the battlefield is just a moment in time, and the situation on the ground could change very quickly as Russian forces keep up their assault.

The Ukrainian military has a number of different anti-aircraft weapons, including radar-guided and heat-seeking missiles, as well as anti-aircraft guns, according to IHS Janes. The US has also provided Stinger anti-aircraft missiles in recent weeks, as have other NATO allies.

As of Saturday evening, the US had not seen any indication the Russian military has taken control over any Ukrainian cities, the official said, even as Russian forces have moved to surround some population centers, including the capital of Kyiv.

Keeping Russia's large invasion force supplied with fuel and ammunition has also proven difficult. As one senior US official explained, Russia anticipated a fast victory and may have neglected to plan for sufficient resupply. Supply lines, this official explained, are a "definite vulnerability."

What we assess now is that [Russia] had to commit a bit more logistics and sustainment, in fuel specifically, than what we believe they had planned to do this early in the operation,” said one of the officials.
Together, these challenges have thus far prevented the quick overthrow of major Ukrainian cities including Kyiv, which US officials were concerned could play out in a matter of days. The city of Kharkiv near Ukraine’s border with Russia also has not fallen to invading forces, which officials worried could happen on the invasion's first night.

These officials caution, however, Russian forces still greatly outnumber Ukrainian forces and Russia continues to maneuver these forces into position around major urban centers. It’s also unclear how much of the slower movement can be attributed to the logistical challenge of moving such a large force.

Russia has spun its slow advance in Ukraine as a stop to allow time for negotiations, not a military setback.

On Saturday, the Russian Ministry of Defense said its troops have been ordered to resume their offensive “in all directions,” after a suspension was ordered for negotiations with the Ukrainian government. The ministry said the offensive was ordered to continue after Ukraine abandoned the consultations.

A Ukrainian presidential adviser denied in the early hours Saturday that Ukraine had refused to negotiate.

“They are having problems,” a NATO official explained, pointing to the alliance’s latest intelligence. “They lack diesel, they are proceeding way too slow and morale is obviously an issue.”

Asked whether Russians are likely to intensify their efforts, the official said they have no choice.

“They are way behind schedule,” he said. “This is getting out of hand for them, every additional day is very painful.”

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-26-22/index.html

[NOVA Green]

Map of the current situation:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg/3000px-2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg.png

My analysis:

1. Russia is not far from linking up its southern advance with the Donbas provinces. Mariupol and Berdiansk will be critical. If Russia can take those cities they control Ukraine's entire Azov coast and can push northward to Zaporizhia. Mariupol in particular was a very pro-Russian city during Euromaidan though I suspect less so now.

2. Kharkiv and Sumy are still holding out so far. These two eastern cities will be crucial to stopping Russia's advance from the eastern border. If they can maintain strong resistance and bog down Russia's forces that'll distract them from being able to quickly advance across the wide open tanker country to the west. If those cities fall there's very little between them and Kyiv.

3. Chernihiv remaining standing has been crucial to blocking Russian pathways toward Kyiv. As it stands, this forces them around to the northwestern approach through the Chornobyl zone, and the Kyiv Reservoir prevents them from using the northeast approach without first taking Chernihiv.

4. The southern advance has been the fastest of any front in part because it is the flattest, most wide open land of anywhere in Ukraine. However, the large reservoir along the Dnieper near Nikopol and Zaporizhia will be a major obstacle. I don't know if there are bridges across this reservoir but if so I expect Ukraine will be taking big stands there and ready to destroy the bridges if necessary. Hard to get tanks across a big body of water.

5. More generally, because Eastern Ukraine is so flat and wide open, resistance in the cities crucial to keep Russian forces held up because there is so little in the way of natural terrain to slow them down. The chain of reservoirs on the Dnieper, though, provides a strong line of defense for Ukraine to regroup if the eastern cities fall and Russia sweeps across that expanse. I would not be surprised to see a major engagement in Dnipro or Zaporizhia soon.

6. Looking much farther ahead on this one, but I can see a possibility of Russia taking Mykolaiv and then surging up the Southern Bug to attack Kyiv from the back door, especially if the eastern front turns into a stalemate.

I don't know much about urban warfare so I can't say much about the situation in Kyiv.

Fingers crossed that the crucial cities stay standing and that this broad advance from the southern and eastern fronts does not come to fruition.

#6: Just saw a live CNN report from Mykoliev and Ukranians blew up a bridge to stop Russians from advancing....

[NOVA Green]

Road Sign Campaign is now real official Ukranian Gvt Policy per Washington Post:

"Ukrainian agency, urging removal of road signs, posts fake photo with real message for Russia

"The Ukrainian government is planning to remove road signs in hopes of confusing Russian troops — and is encouraging citizens to help.

Ukravtodor, the government agency responsible for Ukraine’s national road system, announced the move on social media on Saturday, while sharing a fake photo of a road sign echoing the sentiments many hold toward Russian troops.

The photo of the blue road sign was altered to state, “Go f--- yourselves,” in three different ways.

“Let’s help them get straight to hell,” the agency wrote on Facebook. “Ukravtodor calls on all road organizations, territorial communities, local governments to immediately begin dismantling nearby road signs.”

A spokesperson with Ukravtodor did not immediately respond to a request for comment Saturday.

...."


https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/26/russia-ukraine-war-news-updates/#link-R2K3JOQR4BG6ZFMPF63DLLQLAU

[NOVA Green]

Regardless of the actual war situation, looks like ordinary people are contributing generously to help feed Ukranian refugees in and around the Polish border...

"Employees from a catering company, Viking Kitchen, delivered thousands of bagged lunches for refugees at the Przemysl train station near the border of Poland and Ukraine."



https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/26/world/ukraine-russia-war

[NOVA Green]

Side note.... please everyone can we keep it civil and leave some of the personal debates and disputes for elsewhere / later?

[NOVA Green]

Movement to boycott Russian products in the US gains increased traction among political figures...

Russian Vodka in particular being targeted which now includes Republican Governors of New Hampshire and Ohio, aside from Abbot's "request" in Texas...

"Azi Paybarah
Feb. 26, 2022, 6:33 p.m. ET5 minutes ago
5 minutes ago
Azi Paybarah

Putin’s critics call for boycotts of Russian vodka.

"Vodka, a drink that was popularized in the West by James Bond and that has long been one of Russia’s most visible exports, is now the target of international anger over the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

In New Hampshire, where liquor and wine are sold through state-run stores, Gov. Chris Sununu, a Republican, announced on Saturday the removal of “Russian-made and Russian-branded spirits from our liquor and wine outlets until further notice.” In Ohio, where the state contracts with private businesses to sell liquor, Gov. Mike DeWine, also a Republican, announced a halt to state purchases and sales of Russian Standard Vodka."



https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/26/world/ukraine-russia-war

[NOVA Green]

Ukraine Gvt now official requesting assistance from the "Fifth Brigade" in the form of computer hackers to target Russia per CNN (25 minutes ago)

Here is a link provided for anybody (including Atlas Posters) to help fight the cyberwar:

https://t.me/itarmyofurraine


Ukrainian official calls on "an IT army" to join the "fight on the cyber front"

"Ukraine Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov tweeted Saturday that Kyiv was “creating an IT army” to “continue to fight on the cyber front” as Russian forces continue their assault on Ukraine.

Fedorov tweeted a link to a channel on the messaging app Telegram that encouraged hackers to conduct cyberattacks on key Russian energy firms and financial firms. The proposed target list includes natural gas giant Gazprom and big Russian banks Sberbank and VTB. The Biden administration sanctioned the two banks on Thursday over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The Telegram channel promoted by Fedorov was translated into English to appeal to “all IT specialists from other countries,” the English version said.

..."


https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-26-22/index.html