CA-11

[Mr.Phips]

If Democrats lose this seat and win the White House, look for Democrats to get nothing done in 2009.  This is the exact kind of seat that Democrats are going to have to hold if they want to have a meaningful majority. 

[Mr.Phips]

While I'm obviously hoping for a McNerney hold, it'll be tough, and I think he'll lose 49-48. I just don't see him winning against a candidate riding on McCain's coattails (as opposed to association with Bush), without the sort of baggage Pombo had.

I agree, it'll be close, but McNerney will lose.

The Republican has nothing going for him other than party identification.  I can't see that alone being enough to pull him over the top.

It's a very Republican district. McNerney won only because 2006 was such a great year and Pombo hates the environment.

Its not that Republican of a district.  In the 2008 Democratic primary Democratic voters outnumbered Republicans by 16,000 and the voter registration is very close between Democrats and Republicans. 

[Mr.Phips]

While I'm obviously hoping for a McNerney hold, it'll be tough, and I think he'll lose 49-48. I just don't see him winning against a candidate riding on McCain's coattails (as opposed to association with Bush), without the sort of baggage Pombo had.

I agree, it'll be close, but McNerney will lose.

The Republican has nothing going for him other than party identification.  I can't see that alone being enough to pull him over the top.

It's a very Republican district. McNerney won only because 2006 was such a great year and Pombo hates the environment.

Its not that Republican of a district.  In the 2008 Democratic primary Democratic voters outnumbered Republicans by 16,000 and the voter registration is very close between Democrats and Republicans. 

Ah yes, I forgot the all important qualifier:

It's a very Republican district for that part of the state.

Its no more of a Republican district for California than NC-13 is a Democratic district for North Carolina. 

[Mr.Phips]

While I'm obviously hoping for a McNerney hold, it'll be tough, and I think he'll lose 49-48. I just don't see him winning against a candidate riding on McCain's coattails (as opposed to association with Bush), without the sort of baggage Pombo had.

I agree, it'll be close, but McNerney will lose.

The Republican has nothing going for him other than party identification.  I can't see that alone being enough to pull him over the top.

It's a very Republican district. McNerney won only because 2006 was such a great year and Pombo hates the environment.

Its not that Republican of a district.  In the 2008 Democratic primary Democratic voters outnumbered Republicans by 16,000 and the voter registration is very close between Democrats and Republicans. 

Ah yes, I forgot the all important qualifier:

It's a very Republican district for that part of the state.

Its no more of a Republican district for California than NC-13 is a Democratic district for North Carolina. 

But it hands the Republican easy victories in normal years.

Bush only won it 53%-46% in 2004 and Democrats have held seats in this general area in California in the past.  Tony Coehlo(1978-1988) and John McFall(?-1978) are two that come to mind. 

[Mr.Phips]

While I'm obviously hoping for a McNerney hold, it'll be tough, and I think he'll lose 49-48. I just don't see him winning against a candidate riding on McCain's coattails (as opposed to association with Bush), without the sort of baggage Pombo had.

I agree, it'll be close, but McNerney will lose.

The Republican has nothing going for him other than party identification.  I can't see that alone being enough to pull him over the top.

It's a very Republican district. McNerney won only because 2006 was such a great year and Pombo hates the environment.

Its not that Republican of a district.  In the 2008 Democratic primary Democratic voters outnumbered Republicans by 16,000 and the voter registration is very close between Democrats and Republicans. 

Ah yes, I forgot the all important qualifier:

It's a very Republican district for that part of the state.

Its no more of a Republican district for California than NC-13 is a Democratic district for North Carolina. 

But it hands the Republican easy victories in normal years.

Bush only won it 53%-46% in 2004 and Democrats have held seats in this general area in California in the past.  Tony Coehlo(1978-1988) and John McFall(?-1978) are two that come to mind. 

But "general area" does not mean "generally similar politics"; the 11th once covered much of Silicon Valley.

The districts they represented included all of San Joquain county and most of the rural areas connected to it. 

[Mr.Phips]

Dean Andal, McNerney's opponent, think our national defense is underfunded. Anyone who thinks Bush hasn't pushed for enough funds for the military probably isn't too aware of the post 9/11 defense budget. If he wanted to complain about the lack of body armor, he'd have a point. Saying that our anti-terror operations are underfunded is laughable.

I personally think that Dean Andal would be a very bad match for this district. 

[Mr.Phips]

Dean Andal, McNerney's opponent, think our national defense is underfunded. Anyone who thinks Bush hasn't pushed for enough funds for the military probably isn't too aware of the post 9/11 defense budget. If he wanted to complain about the lack of body armor, he'd have a point. Saying that our anti-terror operations are underfunded is laughable.

I personally think that Dean Andal would be a very bad match for this district. 

Yeah. Andal is probably too far to the right for this district. As long as McNerney can hold the middle, hell be in good shape here politically.

This district will likely be made very safe for him in 2012.  All they would need to do is shed off the most Republican parts of San Joquain county and extend the district further towards the bay picking up more Hispanics and some African Americans. 

[Mr.Phips]

Dean Andal, McNerney's opponent, think our national defense is underfunded. Anyone who thinks Bush hasn't pushed for enough funds for the military probably isn't too aware of the post 9/11 defense budget. If he wanted to complain about the lack of body armor, he'd have a point. Saying that our anti-terror operations are underfunded is laughable.

I personally think that Dean Andal would be a very bad match for this district. 

Yeah. Andal is probably too far to the right for this district. As long as McNerney can hold the middle, hell be in good shape here politically.

This district will likely be made very safe for him in 2012.  All they would need to do is shed off the most Republican parts of San Joquain county and extend the district further towards the bay picking up more Hispanics and some African Americans. 

Agreed. Before he can be saved by gerrmandering, he needs is win in 2008 and 2010.

I think he may skate by in 2008, but he is one of those Democratic Congressman that is probably secretly hoping McCain wins so 2010 wont be a bad midterm year where he would likely lose. 

[Mr.Phips]

This district will likely be made very safe for him in 2012.  All they would need to do is shed off the most Republican parts of San Joquain county and extend the district further towards the bay picking up more Hispanics and some African Americans. 

Except that the population growth has been bigger in the Central Valley than in the Bay Area.  Unless California gets another seat in the House, this district or another one (the 10th? the 7th?) will be pushed eastward rather than westward.

I doubt it. There are several VERY safe districts in the East Bay that can be pushed eastward.

Exactly and that would be in exchange for moving CA-11 westward to take in some of those safe Democratic areas. 

[Mr.Phips]

I think he may skate by in 2008, but he is one of those Democratic Congressman that is probably secretly hoping McCain wins so 2010 wont be a bad midterm year where he would likely lose. 

The problem with this is that whomever assumes the Presidency in January 2009 will be "fortunate" enough to inherit a terrible, 1982-esque economic situation that will likely be either resolved or in the process of being resolved by November 2010.

I don't think there's going to be a whole heck of a lot of benefit to being the party opposing the president in 2010.  It may be more of a neutral 1990-esque environment.

1990 was actually a fairly Democratic year.  The only reason why Democrats picked up only eight seats in the House that year was because they already had 260 seats, leaving almost no more seats for them to pick up from Republicans. 

[Mr.Phips]

I think he may skate by in 2008, but he is one of those Democratic Congressman that is probably secretly hoping McCain wins so 2010 wont be a bad midterm year where he would likely lose. 

The problem with this is that whomever assumes the Presidency in January 2009 will be "fortunate" enough to inherit a terrible, 1982-esque economic situation that will likely be either resolved or in the process of being resolved by November 2010.

I don't think there's going to be a whole heck of a lot of benefit to being the party opposing the president in 2010.  It may be more of a neutral 1990-esque environment.

1990 was actually a fairly Democratic year.  The only reason why Democrats picked up only eight seats in the House that year was because they already had 260 seats, leaving almost no more seats for them to pick up from Republicans. 

And Democrats aren't going to be overloaded with vulnerable seats going in to 2010?  Especially if 2008 is decent enough so that people like McNerney scrounge their way to a second term?

Depends on how 2008 goes. 

[Mr.Phips]

The way I see it, if McCain wins, McNerney is defeated in 2008. If Obama wins, McNerney hangs on to 2010, where he has a hard fight. If he wins then, he's defeated in 2014.

If McNerney gets through 2010 he is likely to get a pretty solid Dem seat from redistricting. 

[Mr.Phips]

Andal will do best in the Stockton/Lodi area.

It's too bad Doug Ose isn't running in this district, though.

That's probably the only part of the district Andal will carry.  Whether it is enough to win remains to be seen, since San Joquain county does cast about half of the district's votes.  If McNerney can make it past 2010, he will likely be relieved of the most heavily Republican parts of SanJoquain and given some heavily minority territory to the west. 

[Mr.Phips]

In the case that Andal won, how would this seat be gerrymandered for him?

It would likely be gerrymandered to get rid of him or possibly place him in the same district as Rick Randovich.  Democrats are likely to control redistricting here and California is one of the few big states that they control. 

[Mr.Phips]

In the case that Andal won, how would this seat be gerrymandered for him?

It would likely be gerrymandered to get rid of him or possibly place him in the same district as Rick Randovich.  Democrats are likely to control redistricting here and California is one of the few big states that they control. 

Gerrymandering in California is bipartisan and designed to favor incumbents.

That's generally not true.  In 2002 Democrats draw the lines to protect incumbents because they had more of them in tough seats to defend.  The only states where gerrymandering is bipartisan are in Washington, Arizona, New Jersey, and Iowa.