New Zealand political discussion thread

[Pericles]

After so much grim news from the new government, we finally got some good news yesterday-

The YIMBYs win big in Wellington

There is no other way of putting it. The new Wellington District Plan is the biggest, fattest W in the history of the pro-housing movement in this country. For the Yimbys, the New City, the progressives, the urbanists, a City for People, for anyone who wants to own a townhouse or apartment in Wellington, this is an enormous, unprecedented victory.

In the stroke of a pen (and a six-hour meeting with many tedious amendment votes), Wellington has moved from the most restrictive housing market in New Zealand to the most permissive.

There were 26 proposed amendments on Thursday, and the Yimbys won every single one of them. Even watching from inside the room, it felt unbelievable, almost impossible. Wellington is a city that has been dominated for decades by the Old Town, a faction of powerful, wealthy residents who will do anything to prevent density and stop any change to the neighbourhoods they hold so dear.

There’s actually very little to analyse here. The meeting wasn’t subtle. It wasn’t complex. The Labour, Green and pro-housing independent councillors romped home. The independent hearings panel’s recommendations were so anti-housing they inspired a backlash, giving progressive councillors political cover to push for even denser housing than would have previously been possible. It was an overwhelmingly one-sided affair. But there are a few points that are worth a deeper dive.

[Pericles]

Now that Labour's vote has been halved, maybe Chris Hipkins has grown a spine.
Labour leader Hipkins lambasts 'inequitable' tax system in State of the Nation speech

Hipkins said: "Our current economic model celebrates those who live off wealth over those who live off work. In the modern economy, contribution and reward aren’t as linked as they used to be.

"Hard work is no longer the ticket to getting ahead it should be. While some earn a lot more than they are worth, the majority are worth a lot more than they earn. Success and aspiration should be celebrated. But when hard work no longer pays off, it’s time for a rethink of the system."

Hipkins later continued: "Now is the time to have that debate. After the election, I said that all options around changes to the tax system were back on the table, and I meant it."

He explained his position: "Our current tax system is inequitable, and it’s unsustainable. We have one of the least diversified tax systems in the world, meaning public investment into things like health, education, welfare, housing and infrastructure is more reliant on income tax than most other countries we compare ourselves to.

"In other words, those who earn their living through their salary and wages are contributing a greater share than those who earn income through wealth. Under this government, those with multiple investment properties are getting huge tax breaks while those on salary and wages pay tax on every dollar they earn."

We've seen a bunch of this behaviour from Labour. Grant Robertson and the new Finance spokesperson suggesting the government should have borrowed more to fund infrastructure, and MP Deborah Russell even had the audacity right after the election to say they should have done a capital gains tax.

Who knows though, maybe they'll have to put their money where their mouth is sooner than we think?
The new government already gets rated just 4.6 out of 10 by the public

[Pericles]

We're so back!
Latest poll result projects a Labour-led government


NZ First fall below the 5% threshold and are assumed to win no electorates.

[CumbrianLefty]

Just makes Hipkins fumbling the ball last year all the more frustrating.

[Dr. Cynic]

That’s quite a bit of buyer’s remorse already. It’s not that common for New Zealanders to toss out a government after a single term. It’s happened to Labour twice (the first time due to their own incompetence, and the second time due to a combination of shell shock after Norm Kirk died and some things beyond their control). I guess it could be the Nats’ turn.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The Nats strategy seems to be to frontload every single unpopular policy within the first year of government, and given just how much bad press they've had the polling has held up fairly well. This poll only has a Labour majority bc NZF has been rounded down to 4% instead of up to 5%.
If the coalition successfully pivots to governing more normally and the tax cuts start funnelling back to voters I doubt they'll struggle for re-election. Particularly given the stench hanging around Labour.

[CumbrianLefty]

Indeed, but such "clever" plans have come unstuck plenty of times in the past.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Indeed, but such "clever" plans have come unstuck plenty of times in the past.

The sticking point is clearly the lightweight businessman whose only experience of government is begging for subsidies for his airline. And this is the man entrusted with herding cats led by a libertarian ideologue and the most experienced man in Kiwi politics. The tail is very much wagging the dog which is already causing problems as ACT and NZF are remarkably out of touch with the swing voters who actually elected this government.

[Fubart Solman]

The Nats strategy seems to be to frontload every single unpopular policy within the first year of government, and given just how much bad press they've had the polling has held up fairly well. This poll only has a Labour majority bc NZF has been rounded down to 4% instead of up to 5%.
If the coalition successfully pivots to governing more normally and the tax cuts start funnelling back to voters I doubt they'll struggle for re-election. Particularly given the stench hanging around Labour.

Yeah, NZF making the threshold is what makes or breaks Labour’s chances at this point.

[Pericles]

The Nats strategy seems to be to frontload every single unpopular policy within the first year of government, and given just how much bad press they've had the polling has held up fairly well. This poll only has a Labour majority bc NZF has been rounded down to 4% instead of up to 5%.
If the coalition successfully pivots to governing more normally and the tax cuts start funnelling back to voters I doubt they'll struggle for re-election. Particularly given the stench hanging around Labour.

Yeah, NZF making the threshold is what makes or breaks Labour’s chances at this point.

On that poll, Labour + Green + TPM add up to 48% while National + ACT + NZF add up to 47%. So given that the government parties won by 11 points in October last year, that would suggest there has been a big swing against them.

Obviously it is very early, and governments do tend to recover from polls like this. Hopefully this is also a low point in the economic cycle. I don't think it is a good result for the government though, since governments historically have had more likable Prime Ministers and longer honeymoon periods.