Can we hone in on the "tipping point" for Florida?

[DS0816]

Cubans swung Democratic, as their voting patterns are becoming more similar to other urban groups and self-deportation rhetoric wasn’t appreciated. It still leans R; we must remember Obama won nationally by 4 points but Florida by just 1, which makes it an R+3 state. In 2008 it was R+4; in 2004 it was R+2; in 2000 it roughly corresponded to the nation (rounds to R+0).

Florida’s demographics, I thought were remaining pretty constant; it’s just that the various groups are slowly shifting allegiances over time, making them ‘difficult’ to figure out.

^^^^^^^
But Dems need to keep their eye on Palm Beach, where things are moving the other way.
Winning margin (in percent rounded to nearest whole number) for Dems
Miami-Dade
2000 6
2004 6
2008 16
2012 24

Palm Beach
2000 27
2004 21
2008 23
2012 17

Republicans are in trouble in Duval County (Jacksonville).

Since after 2000, it has trended away from the party.

DUVAL COUNTY VS. FLORIDA
2000: R+16.74
2004: R+11.15
2008: R+4.71
2012: R+4.48

You mentioned Democrats and Palm Beach County (West Palm Beach). It too has trended away from the party.

PALM BEACH COUNTY COUNTY VS. FLORIDA
2000: D+26.97
2004: D+26.31
2008: D+20.05
2012: D+16.15


Some of the counties in Florida favoring one party over the other have been trended away from preferred party. (That’s relative to the statewide outcome.) Some have been see-sawing, with not too much difference, but notable ones (in some cases).

I did a little research. (Hopefully my numbers are correct.)

The Top 15 populous counties in Florida are:

1. Miami-Dade County (Miami)
2. Broward County (Fort Lauderdale)
3. Palm Beach County (West Palm Beach)
4. Hillsborough County (Tampa)
5. Orange County (Orange)
6. Pinellas County (Clearwater)
7. Duval County (Jacksonville)
8. Lee County (Fort Myers)
9. Polk County (Bartow)
10. Brevard County (Titusville)
11. Volusia County (DeLand)
12. Pasco County (Dade)
13. Seminole County (Sanford)
14. Sarasota County (Sarasota)
15. Marion County (Ocala)

Here are the tendlines for rest of the Top 15 counties since 2000:

MIAMI-DADE COUNTY VS. FLORIDA
2000: D+6.29
2004: D+11.29
2008: D+31.87
2012: D+34.01

BROWARD COUNTY VS. FLORIDA
2000: D+36.49
2004: D+26.31
2008: D+31.87
2012: D+34.01

HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY VS. FLORIDA
2000: R+3.10
2004: R+1.77
2008: D+4.30
2012: D+5.79

ORANGE COUNTY VS. FLORIDA
2000: D+2.05
2004: D+5.22
2008: D+15.81
2012: D+17.32

PINELLAS COUNTY VS. FLORIDA
2000: D+3.68
2004: D+4.96
2008: D+5.41
2012: D+4.75

LEE VS. FLORIDA
2000: R+17.66
2004: R+15.90
2008: R+14.14
2012: R+17.39

POLK COUNTY VS. FLORIDA
2000: R+8.95
2004: R+12.80
2008: R+8.92
2012: R+7.31

BREVARD COUNTY VS. FLORIDA
2000: R+8.19
2004: R+11.10
2008: R+14.18
2012: R+13.56

VOLUSIA VS. FLORIDA
2000: D+8.15
2004: D+6.58
2008: D+2.85
2012: R+2.04

SEMINOLE COUNTY VS. FLORIDA
2000: R+12.01
2004: R+11.75
2008: R+5.59
2012: R+7.33

SARASOTA COUNTY VS. FLORIDA
2000: R+6.35
2004: R+3.30
2008: R+2.91
2012: R+8.28

MARION COUNTY VS. FLORIDA
2000: R+8.15
2004: R+12.18
2008: R+14.37
2012: R+17.09