GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Young Conservative]

Even with Scott Holcomb, I don't think this seat flips and given what a poor fit Osoff is for this district, I don't think it's a particularly good test of the national mood either.  With Holcomb, the margin would tell the tale.  What you'd want as a test-case for the down-ballot effect would be a strong Democrat against a weak Republican in an open seat race (a suburban or exurban version of Jean Schmit vs. Paul Hackett).  I don't think Handel is as weak as Schmit or even Oberweiss, but I agree with Maxwell that she's capable of running a "does everything wrong" campaign.  Holcomb could probably turn that into a razor-thin loss and there's a former (?) state representative here who'd won a very Republican district in a special not too long ago.  He might work too, but Osoff is simply the wrong guy and he may not even make the run-off.  If the Republicans win the run-off by single-digits against someone as weak as Osoff, they should be absolutely terrified, but I don't think we can read too much into it if Osoff loses by a large margin.  

MT's seat depends on the candidates, but is a potentially a decent sign of how non-rust belt rural whites are feeling.  If Curtis is nominated, it won't tell us anything, but a Quaist vs. Giafonte (or however the name is spelled, I'm in a rush ) could be very instructive about the aforementioned group, especially if the DCCC gives Quaist the support he needs.  Like Handel, Gianforte is no Mean Jean, but he is still very capable of running a piss-poor campaign (it's part of why he lost the Governor's race ).  

Anyway, hopefully we'll get some better test-cases down the road as even Montana is hardly an ideal district.  If the Democrats win either of these, it should terrify Republicans as neither should really even be close on paper.

Regarding your point on rust best democrats, all the special elections than happened in IA and MN: the democrat nominee massively overperformed Clinton and Obama.

Indeed and while it is too early to say for sure, I'll be surprised if the Democrats don't gain a massive amount of ground in the rust belt barring weak candidate recruitment.

It's ridiculous how the left thinks their elitist strategy of attacking Trump voters as evil will amount to gains in states that voted for him....

[Young Conservative]

Handel and co are going to have a field day with ads from the debate. Best quote I saw on twitter: "Ossoff: 'There's far to much money in politics.'"  - the 20 million dollar candidate. But muh dark money!

Attacking a Democrat for saying there's too much money in politics? You must've thought the Han Solo ad was brilliant.

Theyve made it the most expensive house election ever... Do you see a trend?

You need to play the game to beat the game. Why do you think so many anti-government conservatives run for office? Not because they love it, that's for sure.

(Although it's usually a different story once they're in.)

Politicians like Jon Ossof have no intention of doing anything about campaign finance. (Not that I think they should, but I do think statesman should do what they say they will.)

[Young Conservative]

GOP pollsters Trafalgar Group have it: Ossoff 50 Handel 47

There polls were super Republican in 2016, but most ended up being pretty accurate.

Can we spot calling them super Republican when they were the most accurate state level polls?

Also, *their