Top 40 House races of 2008

[InsideTheBeltway]

EDIT:  I have added what I could fit from my other post here-since this one had far more views.

The races are ranked from least likely to change hands to most likely.

40) IL-06 Pete Roskam (R) Bush won 53%-47%.  This was the only open seat in a "marginal" district won by the Republicans in 2006.  Democrats have easier targets in 2008 than Roskam.

39) WY-AL Barbara Cubin (R) Bush won 69%-29%.  Cubin's 48%-47% win this year shows how astonishingly bad a politican she is.  She only won 61% in 2006 against a token primary opponent.  If any prominent WY Republican wants a House seat (and eventually a good shot at the Senate), here's your chance.

38) OH-02 Jean Schmidt (R) Bush won 64%-36%.  This situation is virtually identical to the situtation in WY-AL.  Seat should be safe GOP, but crazy lady keeps it competitive, could be beaten in a primary...

37) FL-08 Ric Keller (R) Bush won 55%-45%.  Democrats barely targeted Keller, and he won just 53%-46% in 2006.  He already has a primary challenger.

36) VA-02 Thelma Drake(R) Bush won 58%-42%.  Drake won only won her second term in 2006 very narrowly, but she is starting to get a little more entrenched.  Should be in good shape if 2008 if a better GOP year.

35) IA-01 Bruce Braley (D) Kerry won 53%-46%.  If 2008 is like 2006, Braley is in great shape.  Otherwise, the district is competitive enough that he should have a real race.

34) IN-08 Brad Ellsworth (D) Bush won 62%-38%.  On the one hand, Bush did great in this district.  On the other hand, Ellsworth won by almost as much, and this district likes socially conservative Democrats.

33) AZ-05 Harry Mitchell (D) Bush won 54%-45%.  Mitchell ran as a pretty moderate Democrat, and should be OK if he votes like one.  This is the only AZ district where Kerry did better than Gore.

32) CO-04 Marilyn Musgrave(R) Bush won 58%-41%.  Musgrave's 46% this year shows how unpopular she is, Paccione's 43% shows how Republican this district is.

31) PA-04 Jason Altmire (D) Bush won 54%-45%.  This race would be ranked higher if Hart was 100% running again, but as it stands, a Pro-Life Democrat can do OK here (see Ron Klink).

30) NY-25 James Walsh (R) Kerry won 50%-48%.  Hard to believe Democrats didn't even bother opposing him in 04, and he came very close to losing just two years later.  This time, Democrats may be more aggressive here, but Walsh won't be caught off guard.

29) AZ-01 Rick Renzi (R) Bush won 54%-45%.  Rumors are floating around of ethics issues for Renzi, and this district is marginal enough that if Democrats seriously target him for a whole cycle, he'll be in real trouble.

28) IA-03 Leonard Boswell (D) Bush won 50%-49%.  Boswell's 52%-46% win in a Democratic lanslide (especially in IA) isn't so impressive.  There's a real chance he could retire, but this seat should be hotly contested either way.

27) MI-09 Joe Knollenberg (R) Bush won 51%-49%.  Democrats came reasonably close despite barely spending any money here.  Eventually Democrats will look at that 9-6 GOP majority in MI and try to win some seats in this area.

26) IL-08 Melissa Bean (D) Bush won 56%-44%.  Bean won with just 50% in 2006, but that was with a left-wing challenger taking 5%.  This district is probably too Republican for the GOP not to take a shot at her again.

25) NH-01 Carol Shea-Porter (D) Bush won 51%-48%.  How much of 2006 was a fluke in NH?  If there's any swing back towards the GOP here, former Rep. Jeb Bradley should make it competitive.

24) NV-03 Jon Porter (R) Bush won 50%-49%.  Porter won this year just 48%-47%.  Safe to say this district is pretty competitive.

23) FL-13 Vern Buchanan (R) Bush won 56%-43%.  Buchanan won by some 300 votes this year (although Democrats might disagree with that premise).  Jennings' calls for recounts and lawsuits may hurt the Democrats' chanes in 2008, and this district is naturally Republican.

22) NY-19 John Hall (D) Bush won 54%-45%.  This was one of the most surprising results of 2006, not because this district is so Republican, but because Sue Kelly seemed like a really good fit for this district.  Anyway, a moderate Republican in the Kelly mold would have a very good shot here, especially if Hall compiles a liberal voting record.

21) OH-15 Deborah Pryce (R) Bush won 50%-49%.  Surprisng that Pryce won in 2006.  Mark Foley won't be an issue for her in 2008, though, and she's no longer in the leadership and should have more time for her constitutents the next two years.

20) PA-08 Patrick Murphy (D) Kerry won 51%-48%.  I won't go into this district too much, as I can see people are very passionate about it.  Suffice it to say, if Fitzpatrick runs again, there's not much reason to believe it won't be very competitive again.

19) CA-04 John Doolittle (R)  Bush won 61%-38%.  He could have a serious primary challenge in 2008, and Democrats will have a good shot if Doolittle is the GOP candidate, despite how Republican the district is.

18) NJ-07 Mike Ferguson (R) Bush won 53%-47%.  Ferguson won just 49%-48% in 2006, and he isn't as moderate as most of the other NJ Republican Representatives.

17) PA-15 Charlie Dent (R) Kerry won 49.9%-49.7%.  As competitive a district as they come, but Dent, a moderate, wasn't targeted by the Democrats in 2006.  That makes Dent's 53%-44% win look pretty weak, and Democrats could have a shot here with the right candidate.

16) MI-07 Tim Walberg (R) Bush won 54%-45%.  This district leans GOP, but I'm guessing more people in this district were comfortable with Joe Schwarz then they are with Walberg.

15) WI-08 Steve Kagen (D) Bush won 55%-44%.  The question is whether or not Mark Green, who won 70%-30% in 2004, wants his old house seat back.  Kagen, who can self-finance ("Dr. Millionaire"), is probably a slight favorite if Green passes.

14) NC-11 Heath Shuler (D) Bush won 57%-42%.  Sure,  a socially conservative Democrat isn't a bad fit for this district, but Shuler would've probably lost if (a) Charles Taylor wasn't a terrible candidate and (b) 2006 wasn't such a great year for the Democrats.  He needs to keep a moderate record to win again.

13) NM-01 Heather Wilson (R) Kerry won 51%-48%.  Wilson would've probably lost if Madrid hadn't made those gaffes during the debate.  Republican spin:  2008 can't be as bad as 2006, and Wilson won in 2006.  Democratic spin:  Whoever the Democrats run in 2008 won't be as bad a candiate as Madrid.

12) WA-08 Dave Reichert (R) Kerry won 51%-48%.  Reichert has won two straight close elections here, and his anti-anti-surge vote won't help in this district.

11) NC-08 Robin Hayes (R) Bush won 54%-45%.  Hayes won by some 360 votes by the final tally and Larry Kissell has already said he's running again.  It's also possible Hayes could run for Governor, but I'm not sure an open seat would be easier for the Democrats than beating Hayes.

10) GA-08 Jim Marshall (D) Bush won 61%-39%.  Marshall was one of only two House Democrats to vote against the anti-surge bill, which may be and indication that he knows he's vulnerable.  In a Presidential election year, Marshall will be in big trouble in 2008.

9) OH-18 Zack Space (D) Bush won 57%-42%.  Did Space win 61%-39% because of the circumstances of this district, or is he actually that good of a candidate?  Probably some of both, and Republicans are hoping the memories of the Bobs-Ney and Taft-fade in the next two years.

8 ) CT-04 Chris Shays(R) Kerry won 52%-46%.  Shays didn't win by a tiny margin in '06, and the district seems pretty comfortable with him.  It sounds like former NY Rangers goalie Mike Richter might be interested.

7) CA-11 Jerry McNerney (D) Bush won 54%-45%.  No one is rooting harder for Richard Pombo to run again and win the GOP primary than Jerry McNerney.  If he doesn't Republicans should have a pretty good shot, and even Pombo would stand a fair chance.

6) KS-02 Nancy Boyda(D) Bush won 59%-39%.  Even Dennis Moore had some close calls in the neighboring 3rd after he won his first term, and this district is more Republican.  The GOP primary looks like it could get really nasty, but this being a Presidential Election (and not a Gubernatorial Election) year should help the GOP.

5) IN-09 Baron Hill (D) Bush won 59%-40%.  It sounds like Mike Sodrel is running again, and if I lived in this district, I would be really sick and tired of seeing ads from these two guys.  Anyway, a presidential election year, again, should help Sodrel.

4) PA-06 Jim Gerlach (R) Kerry won 51%-48%.  It's kind of like the DCCC is the coyote, and Jim Gerlach is the roadrunner.  This should be a big battleground again in 2008 for this race, and in the Presidential election.

3) FL-16 Tim Mahoney (D) Bush won 54%-45%.  OK, so the name "Mark Foley" got 48%.  Would any other Repubican actually get a lower percentage than that?

2) PA-10 Chris Carney (D) Bush won 60%-40%.  So a guy who runs as a "values Congressman" cheats on his wife, gets sued for choking his mistress, and has to run an ad saying he didn't in the worst GOP year in decades, and still gets 47%?  Carney's just renting this seat.

1) TX-22 Nick Lampson (D) Bush won 64%-35%.  The question is:  Is there any way the Repubicans don't get this seat back?

As always, I welcome all comments, questions, criticisms, "you moron"s, etc.

[InsideTheBeltway]

I don't know if Jim Marshall should be that high up on the list.  Georgia was the one state where the Republicans made gains in 2006.  Democratic turnout was very poor and Marshall faced the best challenger he could have possibly faced.  Bush did win 61%/39% here in 2004, but that is not uncommon in Southern districts to have a district voting quite Republican at the Presidential level but sending a Conservative Democrat to Congress.

I don't know if Zach Space should be that high either.  He did get 62% of the vote there, which shows that he didn't win by default. 

I put a lot of stock, perhaps too much, in the Presidential Election voting, particularly in a Pres. election year (look at John Thune, David Vitter, and Mike Sodrel in 04, for instance).  I'm not sure how strong of a challenger Collins was at the end of the day-he ran quite poorly for Senate in 2004. 

By the way, I realized after making this list that I forgot about Mark Kirk of IL-10.  He won 53%-47% this year after winning with 64% in 2004.  He could be vulnerable, but his voting record is quite moderate.

[InsideTheBeltway]

By "Top" House races do you mean the most competitive or most likely to switch?

Certainly TX-22 is the most likely to switch, but it's almost definitely not going to be the most competitive (which will probably be PA-06 if Democrats throw everything against Gerlach again or IN-09 if Sodrel runs against Baron Hill)

Yeah, that's what I meant.