Seat redistribution in Canada

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, thank you Teddy. Too bad the Canada apportionment has gotten even messier than what it was before.

[Hatman 🍁]

In the case of the BC seats, probably a mix, although the Tories should get some safe ones, most likely in the Fraser Valley.  I also think the Liberals or NDP might pick up one in the downtown as I believe Vancouver Centre will probably be split and with Surrey and Richmond should get more seats so the Tories will probably take the Richmond ones unless the Liberals can somehow regain their lost support amongst the Chinese community while in Surrey it will probably be less of a battleground with safe Tory seats in the South and East and safe NDP in the North, much like it is provincially.  Ontario will probably help the NDP the least as asides from the condos downtown, most of their ridings are not growing.  Most the new seats will probably be in the 905 belt which can go either Liberal or Tory, while Central Ontario should gain some which should go Tory.  The only good news for the NDP is Bramalea-Gore-Malton depending on how it is drawn up may create a safe seat for the NDP.

Quebec will likely be in the Montreal area so definitely not favourable for the Tories, but the NDP gaining them will depend on the Bloc Quebecois not being revived and the Liberals not finding someone who really takes off in Quebec.  Lets remember Quebec is probably the least predictable province when it comes to how it votes, after all just a year ago if someone told me the Bloc would be wiped out and the NDP would have won 59 seats in Quebec, I would have told them they were nuts, yet look what happened.

No safe seat in Brampton. That was personal vote for Singh. Now that he's an MPP, the NDP will have to find another strong candidate to win the riding.

Growth areas in Ontario will benefit the Tories the most. In the Ottawa area, it will be the Tory strong hold of Nepean-Carleton that splits up into 2 safe Tory seats.  Much of the growth in the 905 is in York and Peel, which will mostly benefit the Tories, unless the Liberals come out of the wilderness. Perhaps a smaller Oshawa riding will make it competitive for the NDP, but I doubt it. Also, there's some growth in Scarborough which might help the NDP out a bit. The NDP should really be targeting Scarborough next election. All of this will be circumvented by a possible riding loss in northern Ontario.

[DL]

No safe seat in Brampton. That was personal vote for Singh. Now that he's an MPP, the NDP will have to find another strong candidate to win the riding.

Growth areas in Ontario will benefit the Tories the most. In the Ottawa area, it will be the Tory strong hold of Nepean-Carleton that splits up into 2 safe Tory seats.  Much of the growth in the 905 is in York and Peel, which will mostly benefit the Tories, unless the Liberals come out of the wilderness. Perhaps a smaller Oshawa riding will make it competitive for the NDP, but I doubt it. Also, there's some growth in Scarborough which might help the NDP out a bit. The NDP should really be targeting Scarborough next election. All of this will be circumvented by a possible riding loss in northern Ontario.

With regard to Brampton, I agree that no redrawing of boundaries will suddenly create a "safe" NDP seat. BUT, the fact is Brampton as a whole is a relatively homogeneous place. Now that the NDP has shown it can win there and now they have an MPP with staff etc...all kinds of possibilities could open up and while redistribution will not create any safe NDP seats there - any new seat created in Brampton could be a potential NDP seat. Jagmeet Singh's win in BGM could be like Mulcair's win in Outremont (also dismissed as just a personal vote - but proved to be an important beach head).

Another point, because of all the new condos and repopulation of the downtown core, two of the most over-populated Ontario ridings are actually Trinity-Spadina and Toronto Centre. If Ontario gets 13 new seats - it is very likely that a new one will be created in downtown TO as well.

[RogueBeaver]

Quebec gets 3 more, Ontario 13, Alberta 6, BC 5.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2011/10/26/pol-house-seat-distribution.html

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

ON - 119
QC - 78
BC - 41
AB - 34
MB - 14
SK - 14
NS - 11
NB - 10
NL - 7
PE - 4
NT - 1
YK - 1
NU - 1

[Meeker]

15 more for Ontario, 6 for B.C. and Alberta and 3 for Quebec

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2011/10/26/pol-house-seat-distribution.html

[Hatman 🍁]

What about the new census numbers? Wont all this change?

[MaxQue]

What about the new census numbers? Wont all this change?

Well, we don't need Census to know how much people is living in each province. Most provinces track it.

[DL]

We have a very good idea of how many people are in each province. The 2011 census data will be key to determining the population of all the current ridings within each province and figuring out where the new ridings should be located etc...

[Hatman 🍁]

But, the formula for adding seats is solely based on census data, not estimates.

[Smid]

An old thread on another site of which people may already be aware, but I just stumbled across this.

The second post has a map of Canada shaded by over/under-enrolled. Obviously it was created 18 months ago, so there may be some changes, but interesting regardless. The over-enrolment throughout Peel referred to by Earl is quite obvious in the map, as are the condo developments leading to an over-enrolment in Trinity-Spadinia and Toronto Centre, referred to by DL.

[Hatman 🍁]

Little do they know that they're using my outline

[Smid]

Little do they know that they're using my outline

I noticed that - further down, someone notes that he's "becoming quite proficient in Paint" and he says that he actually had re-coloured a map that "somebody" had traced as an outline, and I immediately thought of you. I know how you feel, though - I felt quite chuffed when I saw my Prince Edward Island outline map show up in a Google Image search, where the map was on a website that was not yours - then I realised that it was Hashemite's website, so I still felt good about it but I don't think anyone has used my outlines unless they also post here.