Ireland 2009

[Kevinstat]

Who gets to decide when the special election to replace the late Independent TD Tony Gregory is held?  The Taoiseach?  I know the party of a late or resigned TD gets to decide when to call a by-election and (at least roughly) when the election is held, but I don't know who in the party gets to make that decision.  Does Taoiseach Brain Cohen have the descretion over the timing of by-elections to fill both vacancies, through his position as leader of the party of late Fianna Fáil TD Séamus Brennan and though his position as Taoiseach in the case of Tony Gregory?  Could he (or whomever gets to make the decision) keep the seat vacant for the rest of the 30th Dáil if he wants).  Is a by-election is likely in either constituency?  When will one likely be held in either constituency (Séamus Brennan's constituency Dublin South and Tony Gregory's constituency Dublin Central)?  What are people's predictions regarding the by-elections if they are held?  I remember reading on this site that Fianna Fáil was expected to hold Brennan's seat in Dublin South, but I haven't read speculation on the possible Dublin Central by-election or checked out the 2007 results.

[Kevinstat]

Following Labour deciding to move the writ for a by-election in Dublin South, the matter has been approved by the Dáil. It will be held on the same day as the Euopean and Local elections, 5 June.

- The Irish Times

So when do you (Jas, and also Gully Foyle - I mean The Man Machine) now think the Dublin Central by-election will be held?  As Finian McGrath was an anti-Government Independent the Government might not have the credibility to delay the calling of that election like they did in Dublin South.  Perhaps Fianna Fáil is concerned that if Fine Gael or Labour or a Gregorite independent win both by-elections (as seems likely), expelled (caucus-wise) Fianna Fáil TD Jim McDaid will come out against the government, the Greens will withdraw from the government, ex-Fine Gael TD Michael Lowry will come on board and the non-Sinn Féin opposition (the current Fine Gael (51), Labour (20) and Green (6) TDs, the two TDs elected in the special elections, McDaid, Lowry, Joe Behan (who resigned from Fianna Fáil on 17 October), Finian McGrath (who withdrew his support from the Government on 20 October according to ElectionsIreland.org)) will have 83 TDs, enough to form a government of their own unless John O'Donoghue resigns as Ceann Comhairle which would put a sure second seat in Kerry South for Fianna Fáil in serious jeopardy.  How cozy are the Greens in government now, by the way?

[Kevinstat]

Satisfaction with the Government?
14-82

Prefer a change of Government?
62-28

Translated into the colors Jas used for the two non-dissoliving Government parties and the two main opposition parties :

Satisfaction with the Government?
14-82

Prefer a change of Government?
62-28

[Kevinstat]

If Fine Gael becomes by far the largest party after this election as both of you presently predict (there doesn't seem to be much doubt now about them surpassing Fianna Fáil, but the final result could be closer), is there any chance Fianna Fáil and Labour could form a coalition government (Jas predicts the two parties to have 84 TDs between them, just enough for a majority alone if the Ceann Comhairle comes from one of those two parties; some of Jas's projected four Independents or the Greens could give the government a cushion) as I've heard a Fine Gaal-Labour government might be "too large"?  I remember someone saying that about a Fianna Fáil-Labour government with 98 TDs counting the outgoing Ceann Comhairle, whereas Jas projects Fine Gael and Labour to have 109 TDs between them and Gully The Man Machine projects those two parties to have 116 seats between them (although I imagine he would have projected Fianna Fail to elect 2 TDs in Kerry South if he knew about the FF Ceann Comhairle being automatically reelected, which would mean "only" 115 TDs for Fine Gaal and Labour before the new Ceann Comhairle was elected; please correct me Gully if I'm mistaken).

[Kevinstat]

(Your addition of our coalition numbers is a bit off btw, my numbers would give FG/Lab 101 TDs, Gully 109.)

Oops.  I added FG and FF by mistake.  101 and 109 are still above the FF/Lab figure for this last election, but I understand the circumstances would be different.

[Kevinstat]

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Full Irish Times Story

I went one paragraph over "fair share" (if that limit even exists in Ireland), but I doubt the Irish Times will sue.

[Kevinstat]

Sunday Independent/Quantum Research poll:

Dublin South:

George Lee (FG): 49%
Alex White (Labour): 12%
Shay Brennan (FF): 9%

Dublin Central:

Paschal Donohoe (FG): 28%
Ivana Bacik (Labour): 20%
Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind): 18%
Maurice Ahern (FF): 10%

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/fine-gael-storming-ahead-in-vote-poll-1734621.html

Are the results with all candidates included in the poll and the other and undecided (or Other/Undecided grouped together) available somewhere?  I imagine the Undecided vote in Dublin South is greater than 2%, which would give George Lee a majority of the decided vote.  On these numbers Lee would at least win on the second count, and probably the first.  Dublin Central seems likely to take at least three counts, but I'm not sure if Ahern would be eliminated on the first count of three on these numbers or on the second count of four (as I don't know how strong candidates further down are polling).  The article you cited said that "Mr Donohoe will need to poll strongly on first preference" if he is to be elected "as he is likely to suffer from a lack of transfers."  I'm not sure if an 8% margin over the Bacik or a 10% margin over O'Sullivan is enough.  The Ahern vote might determine whether the final head-to-head runoff is between Fine Gael and Labour or between Fine Gael and the Gregoryite Independent, which could be decisive if the non-first preference Fine Gael vote heavily favors Labour and/or O'Sullivan over Fine Gael.  Which of the second- and third-place polling candidates in Dublin Central do resident Irish political experts think is likely to do better head-to-head against Donohue in a final count?

[Kevinstat]

but I'm not sure if Ahern would be eliminated on the first count of three on these numbers or on the second count of four (as I don't know how strong candidates further down are polling).

I'm quite sure Ahern won't be bumped out on the first count. The Trot will likely go out first obviously, then I'd expect the Greenie to go out on the second count. I just don't see the Greenie polling more than Ahern.

I'm not sure if Sinn Féin is running a candidate, but they would pretty much certainly be out before Ahern.

Wouldn't the "Trot" (I assume you mean the Workers' Party candidate), the Sinn Féin candidate (if there is one), the Greenie and Ahern all be eliminated on (by which I mean as a result of) the first count if their votes combined are less than that of the next highest polling candidate?  If only one candidate can be eliminated per count no matter what (unless all candidates had met the quota, which is a simple majority here), then I definitely take that back about Ahern potentially being eliminated on the first or even the second counts.  I wasn't saying that I thought Ahern would finish lower than forth, but I thought the first count result might make Ahern being among the top three candidates after all candidates receiving fewer votes than Ahern were eliminated (and their votes redistributed to the top preference among those candidates not yet eliminated) a mathematical impossibility that would result in all but the top three candidates being eliminated as a result of the first count.  Even if there were enough votes for candidates polling worse than Ahern for Ahern to theoretically get into third place or better based on the first count results, I imagine those candidates combined would poll worse than Ahern and I assumed that in that case those candidates would all be eliminated on the first count and that their eliminations and trasfers would leave Ahern in last place out of the remaining four candidates whereby he would be eliminated.  Again (well, I'll be a little more broad in my description this time), that assumes that if, after any count in a one-winner STV (equivilent the the American Instant Runoff voting) Dáil by-election in Ireland, starting with just the leading candidate on that count, then the leading two candidates, then the leading three candidates and so on, if the last of those candidates in terms of votes in that count has more votes in that count than all further behind candidates combined, all of those candidates will be eliminated and their votes transfered before the next count (if there isn't only one candidate left, which would mean that candidate had attained a majority of the vote in that count).  Perhaps Jas or Gully Foyle can educate me on the STV counting procedures in Ireland (or at least those that would apply in a one-winner election with no surplusses from already elected candidates).

[Kevinstat]

The Greens have no candidate in the East (Irish) European Parliamentary constituency?

Also, since it is part of the island of Ireland (many would say more than that), can you (after North-West and South) do a candidate list for an analysis of the Northern Ireland constituency?

[Kevinstat]

Tomorrow's Sunday Business Post/RedC poll...

General Election

	31 May	29 May	17 May	2007
	RedC	TNSmrbi	RedC	Election
Fine Gael	34	36	34	27
Fianna Fáil	21	20	24	42
Labour	18	23	18	10
Sinn Féin	10	8	7	7
Green	4	3	5	5
Ind/Other	13	10	12	9

Largely consistent with the TNSmrbi poll of the other day, except with a 5% spread on the Labour vote. Guess we'll have to wait and see on that.

They're probably be more details on locals/Europeans tomorrow.

So, are there any more recent polls?  Has polling for the local, European, and Dail by-elections stopped by now?  (I know those elections are on Friday)  What's the latest buzz?

[Kevinstat]

In South, Crowley (FF) and Kelly (FG) are more than likely safe. The final seat seems to be Sinnott (SF Ind) v Kelly (Lab) and maybe even Ferris (SF). Possibly the toughest call of all the Euro elections here. I think Kelly, might just make it.

Corrected (I know Sinnott is also endorsed by Libertas)

[Kevinstat]

Dáil By-Election: Dublin Central

	8th Count
Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind Gregoryite)	13,739	(+2,677)
Paschal Donoghue (FG)	10,198	(+2,318)
Ivana Bacik (Lab)	-	(-6,537)
Christy Burke (SF)	-
Maurice Ahern (FF)	-
David Geary (Grn)	-
Patrick Talbot (ICP)	-
Malachy Steenson (WP)	-
Paul O'Loughlin (CSP)	-

   

O'Sullivan elected without reaching the quota.

Wouldn't the quota be considered at this point to be 11,969 (50% + 1 (or technically + 1/2) of the non-exausted, non-spoiled ballots in the 8th count).  If these same results by party occured in Kerry South in the next general election, with one candidate running for each party (substitute "Ind Gregoryite" for "Ind Healy-Rea-ite" - and yes I know they're not the same, with Healy-Rea supporting the Government while Tony Gregory never did in this Dáil at least) with Ceann Comhairle John O'Donoghue being automatically returned (so the constituency would be a functional 2-seater as is likely to happen), would Healy-Rea or his prodigy be declared elected as a result of the 6th count (or as a result of the 3rd count if the bottom-four candidates were excluded in one go, as a result of whichever count the Fianna Fáil candidate's vote was redistributed) when he had more than a third of the non-exausted ballots in that count but less than a third of the total 1st count vote?  It probably wouldn't affect the count in this case, as his/her surplus if the quota was deemed to be 8,987 (one vote more than one third of the non-exhausted ballots in the 6th (or 3rd) count) would not be enough to push the Shinner over the Labourite candidate even if it all went to the Shinner so his/her surplus would probably remain undistributed until after the Sinn Féin 6th count vote was redistributed, by which time the Healy-Rae-ite's vote would be greater than one third of the 1st count vote and the next count would have his or her surplus distributed either way.  I imagine that surplus would be 2,568 (or 2,569 if he or she was to be brought down to exactly a third of the 7th count vote rather than a third + 1), rather than only 1,591 or 1,591 1/3 (the 1st count quota in this case being 9,471).

[Kevinstat]

New composition of the Dáil:

Fianna Fáil	75
Fine Gael	52
Labour	20
Greens	6
Sinn Féin	4
Progressive Democrats	2
Independents	6	(+1)
Ceann Comhairle (Speaker)	1

Government (FF, Green, PD + Indies) = 86
Opposition (FG, Lab, SF + Indies) = 79
Government Majority of 7

Have the PDs not finished their dissolution?  I read somewhere in May that it was expected to be finished later in that month.  Also, which 3 Indies (besides the two ex-PDs if they are indeed ex-PDs and are Independents as I've read they both will be) are considered to support the Government?  Jackie Healy Rae, Michael Lowry and Jim McDaid?  That's what ElectionsIreland.org has in their Changes during 30th Dáil page (which will probably be updated soon to reflect yesterday's by-elections), and that may be where you're getting your data from (no complaints there, as I've had e-mail correspondence with the person whose site that is and he seems very knowledgeble).

[Kevinstat]

Thanks for the explanation, Jas.  I can also see how some might think it worth noting that more voters either ranked Donoghue over O'Sullivan or didn't rank either of them than ranked O'Sullivan over Donoghue, making Sullivan arguably less than a majority winner even in the final count.  I would calculate the percentages in each count to add up to 100%, making the final count result a 57.4% to 42.6% win for O'Sullivan.

Thanks also for the clarification of the Progressive Democrats' status and which Independent TDs support the Government.

[Kevinstat]

So there seems to be a chance that FG might lose its second seat in one European Parliamentary constituency (East) but at the same time gain a second seat in another constituency (South)?

[Kevinstat]

I had a rather sorry looking set of options for the locals.

FF lost the seat in Jas's local government constituency (Castleblayney in Mohaghan, which lost a seat to Monaghan (Town) in a local government redistribution since the last election (did the boundaries change at all Jas?) due to poor vote ballancing.  Five candidates (2 FF, 2 FG, and 1 SF, all incumbents except for one FF candidates (the one didn't win a seat)), ran for four seats.  The vote by party was 40.5% FF, 38.4% FG, and 21.1% SF.  But the two FG candidates received 21.2% and 17.2% of the vote respectively, while the FF incumbent topped the poll with 26.8%, leaving his runningmate with only 13.7%.  The quota must have been 1 vote or fraction thereof over 20% of the vote.  Count details aren't available but the second FG candidate was elected on the third count, so after two of the three candidates (the top FF and FG candidates unless some of the poll-toppers surplusses were allowed to transfer to the already elected Shinner) elected on the first count had their surpluses transferred.  The SF surplus might have narrowed the final margin.  You can view the results for Castleblayney here.  Don't ask me why I didn't mention any of the candidates' names.

[Kevinstat]

City and County Councils:

813 of 883 seats declared

Fine Gael	315	(Won 293 seats in 2004)
Fianna Fáil	194	(302)
Labour	125	(101)
Sinn Féin	50	(54)
Greens	3	(18)
Ind/Other	126	(115)

[Kevinstat]

Pat The Cope Gallagher (that's actually listed on the RTÉ results page) seems likely to get elected in North West[/url], which would create a new vacancy in the Dail that was a Fianna Fáil seat, for which I've read here there would likely eventually be a by-election that Fianna Fáil would be hard-pressed to win if their fortunes hadn't improved significantly.  Fine Gael under a quota in North West at 23.8% of the first count vote but their leading candidate Jim Higgins is in third with 16.2% with Libertas's Declan Ganley in fourth with 14.3% and Sinn Féin's Pádraig MacLochlainn in fifth with 9.2%, and there's a 5.8% vote for Labour's Susan O'Keeffe that together with FG "sweeper" Joe O'Reilly's 7.6% should see Higgins over the quota.  Still probably a dissapointing result for Fine Gael.

Fine Gael's Gay Mitchell has clinched a seat in Dublin (having over a quarter of the non-exhausted vote) after three counts but hasn't been declared elected as he isn't over a quota yet.

This analysis takes too long so I'll let others carry on from here (even if some of the "play-by-play" is after all seats have been awarded) and just ponder in some my spare time who might still be in contention.

[Kevinstat]

A good site to get results is http://www.rte.ie/news/elections/ .

[Kevinstat]

City and County Councils
Still on 862 of 883 seats declared

Having taken a look at the remaining seats, it looks like it'll end up something like as follows:

Fine Gael	339	(+46 seats)
Fianna Fáil	219	(-83)
Labour	132	(+31)
Sinn Féin	55	(+1)
Greens	3	(-15)
Ind/Other	135	(+20)

Pretty close.

City and County Councils
All 883 seats declared (perhaps with recounts not completed in Belturbet in Cavan and Portlaoise in Laois, but the fact that those LEAs weren't mentioned in the update on all 883 seats having been filled may indicate that those recounts are over)

Fine Gael	340	(+47 seats)
Fianna Fáil	218	(-84)
Labour	132	(+31)
Sinn Féin	54	(no change)
Greens	3	(-15)
Ind/Other	136	(+21)

Source: RTÉ

[Kevinstat]

European Elections in the Republic of Ireland:


Candidates elected by constituency (listed by constituency in order of election, or vote in the count in which the candidate was elected if two candidates were declared elected as a result of the same count):

Dublin: Gay Mitchell* (FG), Proinsias De Rossa* (Lab), Joe Higgins (Socialist) (Socialist and new EU nations gain from FF and SF)
East: Mairead McGuinness* (FG), Liam Aylward* (FF), Nessa Childers (Lab) (Lab gain from FG)
North West: only outstanding constituency in the Republic of Ireland, with no candidates elected yet; see below)
South: Brian Cowley* (FF), Seán Kelly (FG), Allan Kelly (Lab) (Lab gain from Ind (Kathy Sinnott))
Republic of Ireland: 3 FG (-1 from 2004 in constituencies with the count complete), 3 Lab (+2) 2 FF (-1), 1 Socialist (+1), 3 seats outstanding (Ireland lost one seat in the European Parliament)

* denotes incumbent

North West, through Count 5, with no candidates elected (and thus no surplus transfers):


Jim Higgins* (FG) 113,810 votes (24.26% of non-exhausted ballots)
Pat The Cope Gallagher (FF) 112,622 (24.01%)
Marian Harkin* (Ind) 112,210 (23.92%)
Declan Ganley (Libertas) 75,705 (16.14%)
Pádraig MacLochlainn (SF) 54,737 (11.67%)

Exclude MacLochlainn (SF)

The next (6th) count will probably be the last one, with Higgins (FG), Gallagher (FF) and Harkin (Ind) being elected (that will definitely be the end result).  Ganley (Libertas) has conceded and has said he will "bow out of public life."

[Kevinstat]

Government (FF, Greens, PDs, Jackie Healy-Rae, Michael Lowry, Jim McDaid) = 85
Opposition (FG, Lab, SF, Finian McGrath, Maureen O'Sullivan, Joe Behan) = 79
Government Majority of 6

Consider this:
Hypothetical Government (FG, Lab, Greens, Finian McGrath, Maureen O'Sullivan, Joe Behan, Michael Lowry, Jim McDaid, Ned O'Keefe) = 84
Hypothetical Opposition (FF (- Ned O'Keefe), SF, PDs, Jackie Healy-Rae) = 80
Hypothetical Government Majority of 4

I know the Greens don't want there to be an election anytime soon, but it may be getting closer to the point where a Government could be formed by Fine Gael, Labour, the Greens and supporting Independents.  An opposition win in the Donegal SW by-election would bring that hypothetical government's majority to 5, enough to lose (or not gain) the support of a couple Independents or independent Fianna Fáil TDs who currently support the Government.

[Kevinstat]

Second Lisbon Treaty Referendum will be on 2 October - Irish Times

Any speculation on whether or not the Donegal SW by-election will be held at the same time?

[Kevinstat]

Looking at Irish election law at an Irish government web site awhile back, I couldn't see any provision for a by-election where more than one TD was to be elected (although I know there were two such elections on the same day in the 1920, with both constituencies electing one CG and one Republican (precurser to FF)).  The language seemed to indicate a presumption that only one TD was to be elected.  I tried to write a question about that, but either I messed up in the submission form or the people who got the message didn't see any reason to reply to a demanding Yank.

[Kevinstat]

Here is the page I was talking about, from the Irish "eGovernment" website "Citizens Information": http://www.citizensinformation.ie/categories/government-in-ireland/elections-and-referenda/national-elections/the_by_election