Kean wins because (no polls):
1.) His father is the most respected NJ politician (among all)
2.) His father is yet to hit the campaign trail
Kean Sr. has never announced plans to campaign.
3.) Menendez has no one to fall back on and help him (Corzine is death)
Corzine isnt death.
http://publicmind.fdu.edu/shakeoff/4.) Bush came much closer in 2004, state is moving rightward
Everyone knows the state is moving leftward.
5.) No Republican has run statewide since the 2002 fiasco not named Doug Forrester
All republicans lose elections here.
6.) Bob Menendez personally recommended Zelema Farber
Doesnt mean anything. Corzine fired her.
7.) Bob Menendez is involved in a scandal involving a house he rented
Up for speculation.
8.) He has negative approval ratings, and so does Lautenberg and Corzine
Untrue
http://publicmind.fdu.edu/shakeoff/ http://strategicvision.biz/political/newjersey_poll_081706.htm9.) NJ is MA and would rather elect a moderate than an extremist (Codey's high approval compared to Corzine) Corzine was elected and has elected liberal democratic senators for nearly 3 decades.
10.) NJ is ready for balance (hell LA broke a 100+ year streak in 04')
Opinion with nothing to back up. LA is nothing like NJ.
11.) Jim McGreevey is still in people's minds
Menendez is not McGreevey
12.) Jon Corzine is definetly in people's minds, along w/the budget fiasco
http://publicmind.fdu.edu/shakeoff/ 13.) Bob Menendez has never been elected statewide
14.) Bob Menendez's appointment by Corzine is direct link
And?
15.) There is no direct link between Tom Kean Jr. and Bush
Cheney and Laura? R next to his name and support for Iraq
16.) NJ is smart enough to see what links are there and what aren't
In Menendez's favor then
17.) Most New Jerseyeans were upset that Codey got canned
Yet we elected Corzine
18.) Tom Kean gives the base hope that they didn't have w/Forrester
19.) Most of NJ hates Hudson County politicians, and sees Menendez like Corzine as in that respect as well
Yet they continue to elect them and approve
http://publicmind.fdu.edu/shakeoff/ 20.) Ads don't have a huge effect in NJ liberal areas b/c of mixed markets (I've seen more Spitzer commercials than Kean)
They havent ran ads yet. But Corzines prove a lot.
21.) Menendez has not run close races because of his overwhemingly liberal area
22.) People think Tom Kean they think his father and Cristy Whitman, when was the last respectable NJ politician (except maybe Lautenberg)
Dick Codey, Bill Bradley. Our congressmen. Take away Whitman, she ruined the economy
23.) Bob Torricelli is fresh in people's minds
Nope
24.) Tom Kean is doing a great job and more scandals will emerge
Vice Versa too
25.) The overall state of GOP candidates is improving
Nope