MI: Trump +2, +3 (Emerson)

[Redban]

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/michigan-2024-poll-trump-46-biden-44/

Trump 46
Biden 44
Unsure 10

Trump 42
Biden 39
RFK Jr 6
West 1
Stein 1
Unsure 11

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Inside MOE and it's RV not LV

[Hollywood]

Emerson swung 4 points to Trump. 

It also came in line with the Morning Consult Poll that has Trump winning MI with over 75% of the vote. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol it's MOE

[Tekken_Guy]

This is the same lead he has in PA, which is way more realistic than Trump+5 MI, Biden+1 PA.

[Redban]

Emerson swung 4 points to Trump.  

It also came in line with the Morning Consult Poll that has Trump winning MI with over 75% of the vote.  

They swung 4 points away from Trump. It was Trump +6 last time

[Reactionary Libertarian]

Trump will get 46.
Biden won’t get 44.

[Redban]

Trump will get 46.
Biden won’t get 44.

I agree, as RFK Jr will get at least 10% (and Stein + Libertarian + West will get a few percentages). So Biden and Trump will likely get less than those percentages

[Tekken_Guy]

Emerson swung 4 points to Trump.  

It also came in line with the Morning Consult Poll that has Trump winning MI with over 75% of the vote.  

They swung 4 points away from Trump. It was Trump +6 last time

That Trump+6 poll was never published though.

[Sir Mohamed]

How many different polls did we have over recent weeks and months now with Trump leading in MI? I know the state's polls were off in the past and in both directions, but it's worrisome regardless. I'm beginning to doubt it's really the most likely Trump 2016/Biden 2020 state to stick with Biden. It's a tossup at best, probably even Tilt R as of today.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

How many different polls did we have over recent weeks and months now with Trump leading in MI? I know the state's polls were off in the past and in both directions, but it's worrisome regardless. I'm beginning to doubt it's really the most likely Trump 2016/Biden 2020 state to stick with Biden. It's a tossup at best, probably even Tilt R as of today.

Do you know it was Biden plus 10 CNN IN DEC ITS MOE 2 pts, Graholm is visiting MI the energy Secretary

This isn't Hogan 17 or lead in MD

[Tekken_Guy]

How many different polls did we have over recent weeks and months now with Trump leading in MI? I know the state's polls were off in the past and in both directions, but it's worrisome regardless. I'm beginning to doubt it's really the most likely Trump 2016/Biden 2020 state to stick with Biden. It's a tossup at best, probably even Tilt R as of today.

If we’re going by Emerson, Trump is leading in all the other battlegrounds as well by 2 or more points.

[Sir Mohamed]

How many different polls did we have over recent weeks and months now with Trump leading in MI? I know the state's polls were off in the past and in both directions, but it's worrisome regardless. I'm beginning to doubt it's really the most likely Trump 2016/Biden 2020 state to stick with Biden. It's a tossup at best, probably even Tilt R as of today.

If we’re going by Emerson, Trump is leading in all the other battlegrounds as well by 2 or more points.

Yup, but in MI we had other pollsters as well showing Trump ahead. I don't even recall the latest MI poll in which Biden was leading. There were at least a few polls from other battlegrounds since January that had Biden ahead (like in PA).

[South Dakota Democrat]

How many different polls did we have over recent weeks and months now with Trump leading in MI? I know the state's polls were off in the past and in both directions, but it's worrisome regardless. I'm beginning to doubt it's really the most likely Trump 2016/Biden 2020 state to stick with Biden. It's a tossup at best, probably even Tilt R as of today.

I have PA and AZ as the easiest Biden holds.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

How many different polls did we have over recent weeks and months now with Trump leading in MI? I know the state's polls were off in the past and in both directions, but it's worrisome regardless. I'm beginning to doubt it's really the most likely Trump 2016/Biden 2020 state to stick with Biden. It's a tossup at best, probably even Tilt R as of today.

There was a target insyght one a month back, but there has largely been a drought of polling here plus undecideds

[Tekken_Guy]

How many different polls did we have over recent weeks and months now with Trump leading in MI? I know the state's polls were off in the past and in both directions, but it's worrisome regardless. I'm beginning to doubt it's really the most likely Trump 2016/Biden 2020 state to stick with Biden. It's a tossup at best, probably even Tilt R as of today.

If we’re going by Emerson, Trump is leading in all the other battlegrounds as well by 2 or more points.

Yup, but in MI we had other pollsters as well showing Trump ahead. I don't even recall the latest MI poll in which Biden was leading. There were at least a few polls from other battlegrounds since January that had Biden ahead (like in PA).

Every pollster that has done both states has shown Trump up in both and by similar margins. PA’s in-house pollsters (F&M, Susquehanna) seem very favorable for Biden and MI’s (EPIC-MRA, Glengarriff) for Trump.

[Spectator]

No Senate numbers…annoying

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

LOL what kind of crack are people on where they seriously think RFK is getting double digits in November?

[DrScholl]

Biden wouldn't even need all the undecideds to win, so you don't have to do your usual essay, Redban. Trump is basically at his ceiling here, but Biden once again has room to grow. Biden has soft support that will turnout but they aren't plugged in right now.

[Devils30]

If you use election shuffler and shift Oakland, Grand Traverse, Leelnau, Kent, Ottawa 4% left, shift Wayne, Washtenaw 5% right and shift all the rurals including Saginaw, Genessee, Macomb 5% right you get a statewide result of Dem +0.48%.

This alone should demonstrate how tough it will be for Trump to actually win MI again.

[wbrocks67]

Emerson's own graph has shown how messy their polling here has been. Biden +2 in Nov to Trump +6 last month to now Trump +2.

[kwabbit]

If you use election shuffler and shift Oakland, Grand Traverse, Leelnau, Kent, Ottawa 4% left, shift Wayne, Washtenaw 5% right and shift all the rurals including Saginaw, Genessee, Macomb 5% right you get a statewide result of Dem +0.48%.

This alone should demonstrate how tough it will be for Trump to actually win MI again.

If Trump were to win Michigan by 3 points, it's possible that no counties swing against him and the ones that do would only swing slightly. Trends exist but if there's a substantial swing to one direction it will outweigh those trends. Take 1996-2000 where Gore gained in only a handful of counties and 2004-2008 where McCain only gained in counties with a lot of conservadem unedcuated Whites, or even 2008-2012 where Obama improved in only select counties.

In your example, at least, you are definitely being too favorable to Biden in Oakland and Wayne. Oakland is more varied demographically and has weaker trends than the others you mentioned, plus it also has a pretty sizeable Middle Eastern population as well. The Arab vote in Wayne could shift it up to five points on its own, plus with declining Black turnout and a swing it could be eight points easily. That sounds like a lot, but Wayne shifted nearly 10 points from 2012 to 2016 so it's definitely possible. Shifting both of those 3 points to the right gets you to a Trump +0.5 or so.