2018 Senatorial Elections

[IceSpear]

Republicans will retain or regain the Senate, unless 2016 ends up becoming a complete Democratic tsunami. And even then they still might retake it.

This is why Hilldawg needs to pack the courts as quickly as possible if Dems win the Senate in 2016. If by some miracle they take the House, apply that double with legislation. The Republicans would be swept in regardless 2 years later, so you might as well go balls to the wall.

[IceSpear]

Those are definitely realistic scenarios, I wouldn't underestimate how awful 2018 can be for Democrats after they nearly maxed out the class last time.

B-b-but anything can happen in politics™

Apparently a lot of people in this thread think anything can happen in politics. Including a state that sees the Democrats as an anti-white hate group voting for a Democrat.

[IceSpear]

Those are definitely realistic scenarios, I wouldn't underestimate how awful 2018 can be for Democrats after they nearly maxed out the class last time.

B-b-but anything can happen in politics™

Apparently a lot of people in this thread think anything can happen in politics. Including a state that sees the Democrats as an anti-white hate group voting for a Democrat.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_West_Virginia,_2012
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_special_election_in_West_Virginia,_2010
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_West_Virginia,_2008

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Virginia_gubernatorial_election,_2012
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Virginia_gubernatorial_special_election,_2011
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Virginia_gubernatorial_election,_2008

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Alabama,_1992

Alabama = safe D!

[IceSpear]

Those are definitely realistic scenarios, I wouldn't underestimate how awful 2018 can be for Democrats after they nearly maxed out the class last time.

B-b-but anything can happen in politics™

Apparently a lot of people in this thread think anything can happen in politics. Including a state that sees the Democrats as an anti-white hate group voting for a Democrat.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_West_Virginia,_2012
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_special_election_in_West_Virginia,_2010
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_West_Virginia,_2008

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Virginia_gubernatorial_election,_2012
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Virginia_gubernatorial_special_election,_2011
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Virginia_gubernatorial_election,_2008

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Alabama,_1992

Alabama = safe D!

6 elections in the past eight years =/= 1 election twenty four years ago

Richard Shelby =/= Jay Rockefeller, Joe Manchin, or Tomblin

Of nine statewide elections in the past eight years, the Democrats won six of them. They lost President in 2008 and 2012 and Senator in 2014.

Of the lower offices(SoS, AG, Treasurer, Auditor, and Agriculture Commissioner), Democrats have won 9/10 elections in the past eight years.

Okay, how about this one?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Arkansas,_2008

I'm sure if I said Pryor was doomed in 2012 you could easily counter with that in the same way, along with the statewide office statistics. The point is, even 2012 was an eternity ago in terms of WV's extremely rapid political evolution. Manchin is already dead and buried. If you don't believe me, that's fine. You'll see for yourself in 2 years. Or not, since there's a good chance he'll see the writing on the wall and retire and Atlas will forever pretend he would've won had he run.

[IceSpear]

Got it. I mean, sure, 2006 was a landslide for Democrats and Pryor didn't have a GOP opponent, but who needs all the facts when you can cherry pick them?

It was 2008 not 2006, and he didn't have a GOP opponent because they knew he was safe, not because they decided to throw away a winnable seat for funsies. And you're cherrypicking facts as well. Where was the mention of WV Republicans sweeping the legislature when nobody expected them to take both chambers in 2014?

And here's one during a GOP wave, which is irrelevant anyway since gubernatorial races are inherently less partisan: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arkansas_gubernatorial_election,_2010

Again, there's really no point in arguing this. Feel free to bookmark this thread and come back to it in 2 years to gloat if you're so sure I'm incorrect. I'll do the same.

[IceSpear]

Speaking of Arkansas 2014:

Even if he loses by 10 points it still wouldn't be a Blanching, considering she lost by like 23 points or something ridiculous.

[Pryor+2] is unreliable. But Harper, Vox Populi, and Larry Hogan's internals are proof of the incoming GOP landslide. #hack

It's a good thing Pryor outperformed Blanche Lincoln by 3%.

You're really good at calling in the midterms now solid R states that voted Democratic until 2000, aren't you?

I genuinely have no idea what you're trying to prove here. Did you just randomly go into my post history and pluck those out with zero context? LOL. The first post was referring to a hypothetical, and earlier in that same thread I said Pryor was doomed (in fact, I always thought he was going to lose, I just wasn't sure of the margin.) The second post was obviously a joke about how certain hacks believed pro-Republican outliers but not pro-Democratic outliers. That in no way implies I believed the latter.  In fact, here's a great example of that:

New Poll: Arkansas Governor by Other Source on 2014-11-01

Summary: D: 43%, R: 39%, I: 5%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

We're really including this in the database? I think that's pretty dumb. I mean, Pryor is clearly doomed, but our final map is gonna show it as a "toss up"?

So yeah, you might want to work on your reading comprehension before you attempt another "gotcha!"

By the way, even if I did think Pryor was going to win, then that would mean I simply learned from my mistake, something many Atlas posters seem incapable of doing.

[IceSpear]

You overestimated Pryor by ten points with a week left.

Let's not kid ourselves. 2018 is essentially a combination of guesses, recent political trends, and recent experience. That's because we are two years out.

My only point is this: your 2014 predictions were pretty off, and let's not try to pretend we know what will happen in 2018.

I don't recall ever predicting how much Pryor would lose by. I had no idea. That post you quoted was referring to a hypothetical situation (if he did lose by 10, it wouldn't be a Blanching since a Blanching is a 20+ point loss. That was my point.) I wasn't predicting he'd lose by 10. And even if I did it makes no difference. It's not like I said Pryor would DEFINITELY lose by <insert whatever margin> with 100% certainty. It would've just been a random guess which people make here all the time. I'm sure I could very easily find a few dumb guesses you made if I decided to scour your posting history.

There's a pretty big difference between randomly guessing something and making a prediction with 100% certainty. Just as I said with 100% certainty that Hillary was inevitable in the primary which caused me to take a lot of heat here over the past 2 years, I will say with 100% certainty that Manchin will either retire or be Blanched. Time will tell which of us is correct. If Manchin is re-elected, then you'll get the last laugh.

As for my 2014 predictions, considering I predicted Republicans would take the Senate, I wouldn't say they were bad. If you mean I underestimated the size of the GOP wave, sure, I'll take the heat for that one, along with nearly every other poll watcher/political pundit in 2014.

[IceSpear]

IceSpear is absolutely right, though. The idea that Manchin can get reelected in what will be the most anti-Clinton state is really cute. Lincoln Chafee lost in RI in 2006 despite having a 60%+ approval rating. Manchin's approval ratings will be way worse on election day. If the Republicans nominate a strong candidate like David McKinley, he's going to get Blanched.

Yeah. And he's not even popular. The latest poll has him with a 41-42 approval rating. And that's before any attack ads! IIRC, Pryor and Landrieu actually had very strong approval ratings before the attack ads, and then they collapsed. Manchin's is already mediocre. Not to mention the fact that even if Trump wins and is a complete disaster, WV is one of the few states where he'll probably stay somewhat popular, so it really is a no win situation for Manchin.

[IceSpear]

West Virginia: Tossup (considering Rahall got crushed but Justice is winning by double-digits, who the hell knows)

Justice will lose.