VA-Gov 2021: Herring for AG after submitting to resident political overlord T-MAC

[Roll Roons]

The VA GOP still hasn't learned.

This race is Safe D regardless of who the Republicans nominate and which party controls the White House, but I’m of course looking forward to Democrats downplaying expectations and hyping this up as a bellwether for the 2022 midterms.

Anyway, there’s already a VA-2021 thread for the governor's race: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=351883.0

Given Dems have lost gubernatorial races in states like MD and MA, and off-year elections are weird, I don't think that is true. Maybe Likely D, but with a pro-Republican national environment, Republicans could get lucky in VA. I agree though that VA isn't a bellwether, though if the Democrats win by a surprisingly narrow margin or a surprisingly large margin that could be indicative for the 2022 midterms.

There's the rub. A Larry Hogan or a Charlie Baker-type could definitely carry Virginia state-wide. But the GOP primary electorate in VA is not the GOP primary electorate in MD and its on a different planet than the GOP electorate in MA. They don't want a Larry Hogan and they definitely don't want a Charlie Baker. They want a Corey Stewart, and they may even want an Amanda Chase. Needless to say, these fringe figures are not acceptable to swing voters in the urban crescent, which is where the state is decided.  Democrats will run a candidate from NOVA or Richmond (the current gov is from the Roads), and will win this race for the 5th time out of the last 6.

The problem for the VA GOP is half the state is Kentucky and half the state is New Jersey, and the New Jersey half has twice as many people.

The NJ half was run by people like Michael Steele, George Allen, Bob McDonnell, etc. That formula can win again.

Steele was from Maryland, Allen was an idiot and McDonnell is corrupt. Sure, the Virginia GOP can win if they realize that the majority of the state's is now more like the Northeast than the South, but these are not the people to win with.

At this point, I really think we're more likely to win New Jersey than Virginia in 2021.

[Roll Roons]

T-Mac will win this if he wants. I think he'll wait until after the November election and see what happens. If Biden is elected, he will probably consider his options on how the state of the race is and which, if any, job is offered to him. He'd make a great Chief of Staff, Treasury or Commerce secretary.

I actually think running McAuliffe is more important to VA Dems if Biden wins.  He's literally the only person who has won VA-GOV with a president of the same party in the 50 years since the Solid South days.  That's quite a calling card. 

Eh, that was more because of Cooch's weakness and extremism than any particular strength of McAuliffe's. Virginia (particularly NoVA and the Richmond area) has shifted left since 2013. Given the VAGOP's likelihood of nominating a crazy, anyone other than Fairfax should be able to win.

[Roll Roons]

I have long said that Republicans are more likely to flip New Jersey than Virginia in 2021, and I stand by that. Especially since there is minimal chance of Fairfax winning the primary and Amanda Chase is the likely GOP nominee. No state party is more self-defeating than the VAGOP. To think they once produced John Warner.

[Roll Roons]

I have long said that Republicans are more likely to flip New Jersey than Virginia in 2021, and I stand by that. Especially since there is minimal chance of Fairfax winning the primary and Amanda Chase is the likely GOP nominee. No state party is more self-defeating than the VAGOP. To think they once produced John Warner.

This is an exaggeration. As bad as things are for the GOP in Virginia, the situation in New Jersey is even more dire. And that's before the fact that the NJ GOP has insanely decided to run as the "open everything up" party.

New Jersey still has the highest per capita death rate in the country, in part due to the nursing home policy. It's not exactly smart or viable to run as the "pro-lockdown" party either. We'll see what happens when there's a vaccine.

[Roll Roons]

How likely is it that they pass legislation to get rid of the one-term limit? I really don't get why the governor is term-limited, but the LG and AG aren't.

[Roll Roons]

Endorsed. He got screwed over by a stupid system that shouldn't be in use anymore.

[Roll Roons]

Great,

Maybe we can stop pretending Amanda Chase will be the nominee. We will have to work harder under Biden to hold VA-Gov but we can certainly do it.

Knowing the VA GOP, they'll hold a convention and make her the nominee.