🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[S019]

My results for the StemWijzer:

VVD: 70%
SGP: 60%
D66: 57%
GL-PvdA: 57%
Splinter: 57%
CDA: 53%
Volt: 53%
JA21: 50%

My results for the KiesKompas:



D66/VVD swing voter sounds about right, and I imagine that means I'd support the VVD this time with D66 looking irrelevant, I guess it also means I'm one of very few people happy with the current government (which I am).

[DavidB.]

D66/VVD swing voter sounds about right, and I imagine that means I'd support the VVD this time with D66 looking irrelevant, I guess it also means I'm one of very few people happy with the current government (which I am).

The outgoing government is about where your Kieskompas pin is, so that makes sense.

This was my result. No surprise. Not voting for any of the pair that I'm "closest to" though. Kieskompas doesn't filter for the things that make them a non-starter.

[Vosem]

Are you also PVV then presumably, David?

[YL]

The Kieskompas, which uses a two-dimensional model and places you within it instead of comparing your % of agreement with parties, has now also been launched. The parties motivate their positions with at least one, but sometimes also multiple sources. Filling out your e-mail isn't mandatory, just don't do it. Enjoy.

I came out very close to GroenLinks/PvdA, which is about what I'd have expected.

[Mike88]

Ipsos published a new poll and VVD holds on to the lead, while NSC loses one seat. GL/PvdA gains two seats, PVV loses one and BBB maintains the 12 seats of the previous poll.

[Flyersfan232]

Almost 100% identical to BBB for me. Slightly surprising

Note that this could be happenstance - this is always the danger of any spatial model. It could be that you landed on this position by answering questions differently from BBB but ended up in the same place. This is why I would always look into the positioning of the parties per question, which Kieskompas allows you to do.

However, based on what I know of your posting history, I don't find this to be too surprising. BBB have become broader than just a farmers' interest party and hold views somewhere between the center-right and the nationalist right 'blocs' of parties.

how do you know that timmerman reads this thread?

[DavidB.]

how do you know that timmerman reads this thread?

I believe that was a joke I made in a different post, right? Regarding the student loans. I'm quite sure he doesn't, but he decided to address the exact same issues I had outlined in this thread something like one day after I made the post, that's why I joked about it.

Ipsos published a new poll and VVD holds on to the lead, while NSC loses one seat. GL/PvdA gains two seats, PVV loses one and BBB maintains the 12 seats of the previous poll.

Indeed, I had missed this. Slightly counter-intuitive changes, but mostly within the margin of error. Ipsos already had GL/PvdA surprisingly low, their gains (probably outside the MoE) seem to be a bit of a correction. Here is the entire poll:
https://twitter.com/Politieke_B/status/1719343519695786467?s=20
They also made an interesting flowchart, published here. But they included "don't know"/"won't vote", those are the 14.5 seats under "SN".

[Intell]

Basically am where christian union is but would be a critical NSC/PVDA-GL/D66 swing voter

[Zinneke]

I was in Rotterdam to remind myself how a semi-functional city works...are individual party posters banned now? There used to be loads of posters with either the party slogan or the list leader? You could barely tell there was an election on.

[DavidB.]

I was in Rotterdam to remind myself how a semi-functional city works...are individual party posters banned now? There used to be loads of posters with either the party slogan or the list leader? You could barely tell there was an election on.

I was in the Netherlands last weekend and had the same impression. But I think it's still a little too early - usually the campaign only goes in the highest gear in the last 2.5 weeks.

Over the last years, many places where parties could put up their posters have been replaced by pre-printed billboards which are set up by the municipalities, which include small versions of all parties' posters. This also prevents incidents of vandalism as the billboards tend to be quite high, beyond the level where you can reach them. A typically Dutch solution that 'works', but does take away some of the charm and volunteer engagement in campaigns. But you'll still find 'unpaid' campaign posters and advertisements around trees and lampposts (I suppose those are technically illegal, but still tolerated) - in addition to paid advertisement at bus stops, train stations, regular billboards etc.

Of course, Rotterdam is notorious for low turnout and low political engagement in general, so if there is any place where 'election visibility' is low, it's there.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There are less posters in most countries these days. I suppose it reflects that there's less absolute loyalty towards particular political parties now.

[Zinneke]

There are less posters in most countries these days. I suppose it reflects that there's less absolute loyalty towards particular political parties now.

Ah, might be why there are still so many in Wallonia and Brussels then, sadly. They don't even bother with slogans. Just the last name and the colour of the party is usually enough.

[adma]

There are less posters in most countries these days. I suppose it reflects that there's less absolute loyalty towards particular political parties now.

But also, in our polarized times, more concern over the consequences of displaying one's allegiances out in the open.

[Tintrlvr]

The Kieskompas, which uses a two-dimensional model and places you within it instead of comparing your % of agreement with parties, has now also been launched. The parties motivate their positions with at least one, but sometimes also multiple sources. Filling out your e-mail isn't mandatory, just don't do it. Enjoy.

Just a hair to the right of Volt and a bit above D66, which seems about right. I did try to tune my answers on economics to where the Netherlands is now, so in other contexts I'd probably be more left-of-center economically. I'd probably vote for Volt unless they seemed like a lost cause for hitting the threshold (which they don't).

[DavidB.]

What is becoming clearer and clearer is that Volt have silently shifted their position somewhat. In 2021, they seemed like the less 'ideological', 'woke' version of D66, slightly to their right and slightly less progressive. You would need a microscope to see the differences and they're more about focus and vibes than about actual policy (the only difference was that D66 didn't support nuclear energy back then while Volt already did), but still - it was more about pragmatism, optimism, innovation etc. Basically a party for young, 'socially responsible' consultants who graduated a few years ago and now make a lot of money but still live in a big city. But - perhaps inevitable due to the young crowd they attract - they are now the more socio-economically left-wing and more radical version of D66, which is accurately depicted in the Kieskompas chart.

I expect D66 to have a more suburban-based electorate this time (in the Green Belt; voters who are too progressive for the VVD but too rich for GL-PvdA and too old for Volt), with relatively less support in the cities; a shift that was already happening but will now accelerate.

[DL]

I find it fascinating how the presence of such a low threshold to win any seats in the Netherlands keeps leading to the proliferation of these teeny-weeny parties that have only the most microscopic differences from other parties. I mean seriously - why do you need a Party for the Animals AND a Green party? Why have D66 and Volt and PvdA etc... in any other country these parties would be factions within larger parties.

Not saying its necessarily good or bad - it just "is"

[Intell]

I find it fascinating how the presence of such a low threshold to win any seats in the Netherlands keeps leading to the proliferation of these teeny-weeny parties that have only the most microscopic differences from other parties. I mean seriously - why do you need a Party for the Animals AND a Green party? Why have D66 and Volt and PvdA etc... in any other country these parties would be factions within larger parties.

Not saying its necessarily good or bad - it just "is"

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but my understanding was the Party for Animals and the Greens have different bases of support?

[crals]

It's quite remarkable how there's such a large number of parties and yet they only occupy 2 quadrants of the graph. What is the difference between the left/right and progressive/conservative axis supposed to be?

[Zinneke]

It's quite remarkable how there's such a large number of parties and yet they only occupy 2 quadrants of the graph. What is the difference between the left/right and progressive/conservative axis supposed to be?

It's always been an axis designed for American politics so I'm still not sure why people apply it to European. I imagine if there were a European-style axis, SP would be "Left-Conservative", and D66 somewhat more "Right-Progressive" but even then it's not really clear cut.

[YL]

I find it fascinating how the presence of such a low threshold to win any seats in the Netherlands keeps leading to the proliferation of these teeny-weeny parties that have only the most microscopic differences from other parties. I mean seriously - why do you need a Party for the Animals AND a Green party? Why have D66 and Volt and PvdA etc... in any other country these parties would be factions within larger parties.

Not saying its necessarily good or bad - it just "is"

I would think of the difference between PvdA and D66 as being roughly analogous to that between Labour and the Lib Dems, and the latter just about manage to remain relevant in the majoritarian UK.  But Volt are a different matter: they are supposedly a pan-European party, but in most European countries they are essentially irrelevant in terms of actually winning seats, while in the Netherlands they have managed to find a niche.

Then there's the mass of virtually indistinguishable tedious populist right parties.  And, perhaps more interestingly, the parties which have quite a clear niche but one which wouldn't be big enough to win seats in most electoral systems: PvdD, DENK, 50Plus (though they seem to be on the way out), and to some extent the SGP (though perhaps the concentration of support they have in some areas would win them seats under other systems too).

[DavidB.]

Maurice de Hond just published this weekend's Peil.nl poll. According to De Hond, BIJ1 gaining one seat (from 0 to 1) is due to former GL voters crossing over. These are likely far-left voters thinking Timmermans is too pro-Israel; Hamas could well save BIJ1. GL-PvdA still gain, because they gained more voters than they lost to BIJ1. NSC, CDA and CU lose seats. All of these shifts are within the MoE, though.



Below is a chart of the percentage parties gain within certain segments of the electorate (as self-identified) in 5 categories: left-wing, relatively left-wing, centrist, relatively right-wing and right-wing. Note that the size of these five groups is not equal. De Hond points out the electorate is clearly more right-wing than 15 years ago and that GL-PvdA's room to gain is limited: they already gain 60% of voters self-identifying as left-wing. Currently, when categorized in 3 segments, 29% of voters self-identify as left-wing, 22% as centrist and 49% (!) as right-wing. 15 years ago, 35% identified as left-wing, 24% as centrist and 41% as right-wing. This shows how difficult GL-PvdA's mission is. One more thing worth noting here is how left-wing the PvdD's electorate has become due to their ideological transition.

NSC is an important competitor in the "relatively left-wing" category. It is interesting to see that GL-PvdA are almost absent in the "centrist" category with only 3% of the vote, clearly proving why Timmermans is pivoting to the center. I don't have any comparable statistics for the 2021 election, but this must have been the segment where VVD and D66 'won' the election back then. This time, NSC is taking this segment with a massive margin - this is also where the D66 -> NSC voters must be.

Moving further right, it is interesting how D66 has completely lost voters identifiying as 'relatively right-wing'; this was never a segment they did extremely well in (cynics would say they would rather do well with people who are center-right but identify as more left-wing...), but in 2021 they probably still did a lot better here. VVD and NSC are big here, with PVV and BBB following.

The right-wing segment is dominated by the PVV, followed by VVD and FVD. I wonder how big this segment actually is (and it's a shame De Hond isn't offering these percentages); I think the vast majority of 'right-wing' voters (the two categories combined) identified as 'relatively right-wing'.



This is a chart of party preference by party most voted for in the last 5 general elections (2006-2021). PVV and GL-PvdA are best at retaining their voters this time. The CDA is losing almost half its formerly loyal voters to NSC and another chunk to BBB. The VVD is mostly losing voters to NSC, PVV and BBB - 24% of "loyal" VVD voters now vote for NSC or BBB. Also note the large percentage of SP voters moving to NSC, the fact that NSC voters literally come from everywhere, and the rather considerable transfer of "loyal" SP voters to the PVV (7%) this time.

[Estrella]

Below is a chart of the percentage parties gain within certain segments of the electorate (as self-identified) in 5 categories: left-wing, relatively left-wing, centrist, relatively right-wing and right-wing. Note that the size of these five groups is not equal. De Hond points out the electorate is clearly more right-wing than 15 years ago and that GL-PvdA's room to gain is limited: they already gain 60% of voters self-identifying as left-wing.

Is this just a change in how voters see themselves because #globaltrends, or does the electorate support more right-wing policies now? It seems like 15 years ago we were already living in a post-Fortuyn world, PvdA was a fairly urban middle-class party, the SP surge was a one-off, all sorts of right-wing populists were already doing well with the people who now vote PVV and the Rutte governments were very right-wing both on economics and immigration... so it doesn't seem like that much should've changed for either reason.

Also, it's interesting that PVV gets literally 0-1% with left-wing voters. I know this is more complicated in the Netherlands because the Catholic working class wasn't left-wing to begin with, but I'd have expected that there'd be at least some voters in like rural north who now vote for PVV but still see themselves as left-wing, plus the SP > PVV switchers you mentioned.

[DavidB.]

Is this just a change in how voters see themselves because #globaltrends, or does the electorate support more right-wing policies now? It seems like 15 years ago we were already living in a post-Fortuyn world, PvdA was a fairly urban middle-class party, the SP surge was a one-off, all sorts of right-wing populists were already doing well with the people who now vote PVV and the Rutte governments were very right-wing both on economics and immigration... so it doesn't seem like that much should've changed for either reason.

The general public has consistently supported more income redistribution - it has absolutely not become more right-wing economically, probably quite the opposite. At the same time, voters have moved towards a more restrictionist position on immigration (and probably on 'national identity' issues in general) and simultaneously towards a position more supportive of policies to mitigate climate change. A blurry picture.

A plurality of voters can be found somewhere in the 'left-conservative' quadrant. But the policy we have gotten over the last 13 years is in the 'right-progressive' quadrant: 'woke neoliberalism', put crudely. As a result, voters have come to associate left-wing parties more with progressivism than with income redistribution (exacerbated by the PvdA's spectacular failure in Rutte-II, perhaps the most austerity-supportive post-war government of all) and right-wing parties more with cultural conservatism than with economic liberalism - with the exception of the VVD, but they have also been trying to de-emphasize economic issues for years now as they realize their stance is broadly unpopular (a level of self-awareness and pragmatism not found on the left, who also simply cannot be as flexible in 'dropping' or de-emphasizing cultural themes, although Lodewijk Asscher briefly tried).

My conclusion would be that voters have come to associate left and right less with economic issues and more with cultural issues, on which they are simply more conservative than the status-quo - hence the shift to right-wing self-identification. #Globaltrends indeed.

It is only over the last 10 years or so that the effects of immigration really started to become noticeable in many rural areas in the country. I think this has contributed to the 'depillarization' of their voting behavior (CDA losing the south, PvdA the north) and at least partially explains the difference with the Balkenende era (although especially in the south it's more complicated and the south is huge, with many different subregions; some, like Central Brabant, have actually become more 'progressive' - but it's a contributing factor).

Also, it's interesting that PVV gets literally 0-1% with left-wing voters. I know this is more complicated in the Netherlands because the Catholic working class wasn't left-wing to begin with, but I'd have expected that there'd be at least some voters in like rural north who now vote for PVV but still see themselves as left-wing, plus the SP > PVV switchers you mentioned.

My guess is that these PvdA/SP -> PVV voters in the north are exactly the type of voters whose self-identification has shifted, while their actual views on income redistribution haven't. They have simply come to identify the left with support for mass immigration, which is what the PvdA did support in 2012-17, and not with income redistribution, which is what the PvdA didn't support in 2012-17.

It is worth noting that the issue of immigration is especially salient in the northeast, as the only 'registration center' for new asylum seekers is located there and municipalities in the north (where left-wing and Christian parties are overrepresented) generally take in way more asylum seekers than the national average. This has been a big contributor to the north's rightward shift. Of course, due to its relatively small population, its electoral weight is quite low.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

PVDA-GL but willing to maybe support Volt seems about right?

[DavidB.]

There is more and more talk about a potential NSC-GL/PvdA-VVD coalition. This could happen, I suppose, but in addition to having no majority in the Senate (only 24 out of 75 seats) and facing fierce opposition from all sides, it has the potential to destroy the credibility of all three (or four...) potential partners and to break up GL/PvdA. An 1Vandaag poll also shows this would be an unpopular option with the general public: 28% think this option is acceptable, a whopping 65% don't. Remarkably, a right-wing option with PVV and BBB instead of GL-PvdA would be far more popular:

https://twitter.com/Nassreddin2002/status/1721458820457570614?s=20

Meanwhile, Omtzigt has expressed a preference for a minority government, but if this doesn't work he "could see" a center-right option without the PVV: NSC-VVD-BBB-CDA-SGP-JA21. I am not sure expressing this preference is a smart move given that he's won over a considerable number of center-left voters.

https://twitter.com/EwoudKieviet/status/1721499045154189544?s=20