SC, but both states will remain solidly Republican for a long time. I could see SC trending Democratic, but like I said it's a stretch at this point. MO is a lost cause for Democrats, and it will become even more obvious in 2018.
The fastest growing areas of SC are the most Republican, unlike the more Democratic rural ones. It's equally likely it trends R.
You keep saying this, but what areas are you talking about?
The fastest growing areas are in the Charleston MSA, and Charleston Cty both trended and swung D in 2016. Do you have some precinct level data that breaks it down better?
Also Richland and Lexington Counties (Columbia) trended/swung D. Greenville Cty swung/trended D....
So what exactly are you referring to?
If you're just talking about margin; well Clinton won Columbia and Charleston. Trump won Greenville but not by spectacularly better margins than rural areas... better than some, worse than others. I mean, sure, I get that Allendale Cty is 76% D, and Dems do well in the black belt, but not every rural county in SC is in the black belt, Tom.
1) Even though it fits the cultural grievances of many on this forum (on both sides) like a glove, I don't think 2016 signaled some type of political future of a Middle America GOP vs. a cosmopolitan Democratic Party. Politics has always been and will always be more complicated than that, and I think there are tons of areas that swung to Clinton that it's frankly laughable to consider "Democratic areas" or even remotely "ripe for gains."
2) Clinton won 54% of the "rural vote" in the exit polls for SC, while Trump won 62% of the suburban vote. Suburban voters are the bedrock of the SCGOP, and that should be obvious.
Actually elections from 2000-2016 creates the whole Middle America vs Cosmopolitan you mentioned. Im not saying all suburbs are trending Democrats or that Clinton gains will hold but metro areas that are considered cosmopolitan and internationally connected are trending democrat. For example Dallas despite it larger size most people view Houston as more cosmopolitan of the two. If you also noticed Houston is more Democratic than Dallas.
As for South Carolina most people believe Charleston is the largest metro area despite it being the 3rd largest in the state. Most people here view Charleston as the most cosmopolitan city in the state because of this Charleston and it suburbs saw larger drop in Trump voter share than let say Lexington County SC.
Suburbs are not one in the same there is a major difference in the suburbs of LA, ATL, and Houston than KCMO, Cleveland, and St Louis. It make no since to say the GOP own the suburban there is no exit poll from recent election that show a convincing win in that category. The GOP does great in exurbs though as for the suburbs not so much. I know you like to say you home state county of Lake became democratic because of an influx of uneducated minorities moving there but for the record Republican won Charleston with 8 points when it was 61% white in 2000 they lost by 8 points last year when it was 69% white.
Poll
