Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Could they just alter water charges progressively so rich people more, or, err, link the fee to water usage rather than being flat?

[patrick1]

Could they just alter water charges progressively so rich people more, or, err, link the fee to water usage rather than being flat?

Because this is Fine Gael

[DC Al Fine]

Could they just alter water charges progressively so rich people more, or, err, link the fee to water usage rather than being flat?

Because this is Fine Gael

Wait, people don't pay their utilities based on usage in Ireland? Isn't that a massive moral hazard?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Could they just alter water charges progressively so rich people more, or, err, link the fee to water usage rather than being flat?

Because this is Fine Gael

Wait, people don't pay their utilities based on usage in Ireland? Isn't that a massive moral hazard?

Nope and yes.

Actually we didn't use to pay for our utilities at all and the water protesters want to return to that, without a plan of how to fix the water distribution system.

But this is Ireland - one of the biggest effects of making people pay for refuse has been a massive spike in illegal dumping, amid our romanticized green fields you can regularly find the sight and smell of other people's garbage.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Who do you think will have a government first? Spain or Ireland? I have no idea at this point.

[ObserverIE]

Five TDs lost their deposits (or more exactly, failed to clear a quarter of the quota in their constituencies):

Seán Conlan (FG -> Ind, Cavan-Monaghan)
Ciara Conway (Lab, Waterford)
Ciarán Lynch (Lab, Cork South Central)
Peter Mathews (FG -> Ind, Dublin Rathdown)
Éamonn Moloney (Lab -> Ind, Dublin South West)

[DavidB.]

Who do you think will have a government first? Spain or Ireland? I have no idea at this point.

Ireland, probably.

[RodPresident]

Who do you think will have a government first? Spain or Ireland? I have no idea at this point.

Ireland... FF+SF have many roads to win...

[DC Al Fine]

Some more random questions:

1) What does an FF/FG swing voter look like?
2) What voters is Sinn Fein appealing to exactly? How do their demographics look compared to Labour/Misc. Left wing parties?
3) Is FG & Labour's propensity to form coalitions almost entirely based around the fact that they are not FF?

[ObserverIE]

Some more random questions:

1) What does an FF/FG swing voter look like?
2) What voters is Sinn Fein appealing to exactly? How do their demographics look compared to Labour/Misc. Left wing parties?
3) Is FG & Labour's propensity to form coalitions almost entirely based around the fact that they are not FF?

1) Nondescript. Middle-middle class, middle-of-the-road or slightly right-of-centre ideologically.
2) Disenchanted. Former FF and Labour voters, working or lower-middle class, primarily urban rather than rural. Labour at this stage are more middle-class urban secular professionals than working-class, but ironically they are largely dependent on rural working-class votes in order to still exist. The Alphabet Left's voters are probably more strongly semi-skilled or unskilled working-class than SF's (and entirely urban) but their support base is more localised where the Trots have put in the groundwork at local level.
3) Originally yes (FF didn't do coalitions until 1989), but as Labour have shed working-class votes and become more middle-class (certainly in terms of their activist cadre) then it's become a more natural marriage.

[DC Al Fine]

Thanks much appreciated.

[Хahar 🤔]

My understanding is that the Labour demographics in this election resembled the electorates of fellow small liberal parties in other European countries.

[ObserverIE]

Box tallies for Longford-Westmeath in the 2016 elections:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tBKVpx-vlHEV4Ikd50sdnlRDtUECn4yHsgrb_9zgJgg/edit?usp=sharing

2011 for comparison:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IPftxHNgGjCyYI5wTeFgvUWHwD6J2WGHpEzFXkSf2SI/edit?usp=sharing

[ObserverIE]

Seemingly unfazed by having massively overpolled FG and underpolled FF (even compared to other pollsters) all through the election campaign, RedC are back with another poll for the Sunday Business Post. I'm giving the figures, along with the change from the last poll of theirs before the election:

FG 27 (-3)
FF 25 (+5)
SF 15 (-)
Ind/Oth 15 (-1)
SD 5 (+1)
Lab 4 (-3)
SP/SWP 4 (+1)
GP 3 (-)
Renua 2 (-)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

My understanding is that the Labour demographics in this election resembled the electorates of fellow small liberal parties in other European countries.

Actually in this election the liberals - Jan O'Sullivan apart - who got wiped out. It's its more small town base around long Labour traditions or personal voting where it survived (Penrose in L-W, Sherlock in Cork East, Wexford, Nenagh...)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Seemingly unfazed by having massively overpolled FG and underpolled FF (even compared to other pollsters) all through the election campaign, RedC are back with another poll for the Sunday Business Post. I'm giving the figures, along with the change from the last poll of theirs before the election:

FG 27 (-3)
FF 25 (+5)
SF 15 (-)
Ind/Oth 15 (-1)
SD 5 (+1)
Lab 4 (-3)
SP/SWP 4 (+1)
GP 3 (-)
Renua 2 (-)

Any idea whether they changed their methodology?

[ObserverIE]

Seemingly unfazed by having massively overpolled FG and underpolled FF (even compared to other pollsters) all through the election campaign, RedC are back with another poll for the Sunday Business Post. I'm giving the figures, along with the change from the last poll of theirs before the election:

FG 27 (-3)
FF 25 (+5)
SF 15 (-)
Ind/Oth 15 (-1)
SD 5 (+1)
Lab 4 (-3)
SP/SWP 4 (+1)
GP 3 (-)
Renua 2 (-)

Any idea whether they changed their methodology?

Their argument seems to be that they're now adjusting to the 2016 election levels and therefore the problem solves itself. So there.

[ObserverIE]

My understanding is that the Labour demographics in this election resembled the electorates of fellow small liberal parties in other European countries.

Actually in this election the liberals - Jan O'Sullivan apart - who got wiped out. It's its more small town base around long Labour traditions or personal voting where it survived (Penrose in L-W, Sherlock in Cork East, Wexford, Nenagh...)

When I was inputting the tallies for the spreadsheet yesterday, the remarkable thing was that Penrose managed to survive the implosion of his base (outpolled two-to-one by Troy of FF in his home village of Ballynacarrigy, a polling district like Mullingar East Urban 2 - covering the working-class estates on the Delvin Road - going from 58% Labour to 15%). It was that he did slightly less badly in the small villages around Mullingar that saved him (and even then, on the morning of the count, after tallying a box in Rochfortbridge where his vote had gone from 157 to 55, I texted a friend to say that he was gone). Having said that, I can't see him surviving another election and much the same could be said about a couple of the others.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Cross Post with AAD

The Excellent Tallyrific Maps has published some tallies on its website and FB page (although some are only accessible via a paywall    ) Anyway here are some highlights:

Poll Topper in Dublin Bay South


(Note: Andrews(SF), Humphries (LAB) O'Connor and Murphy (FG) and Ryan (Greens). Ryan, O'Connor, Murphy and Jim O'Callaghan (FF) were elected, the latter without leading in any electoral division despite being the third highest in the poll. This is obviously a class map with SF leading in the inner city sections of the constituency where voters are more likely to live in social housing (also a large number of young renters but they are less likely to vote or vote somewhere else). The inner suburbs of Ranelagh, Rathmines, and Ballsbridge were all led by the two Fine Gael candidates with seemingly excellent vote management. This is mostly a wealthy area. While Ranelagh has gentrified massively over the past 20-25 years (and has had a major influx of hipster, thus the Green vote), the areas by the coast where Eoin Murphy led have been among the wealthiest parts of the city (and thus Ireland) since the 19th Century. Tallyrific Maps notes:

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(No, I'm not sure how they define this).

Poll-toppers in Dublin Central


That's Burke (IND), Costello (LAB), McDonald (SF), Donohue (FG)... McDonald and Donohue were elected along with Maureen O'Sullivan (IND) who actually finished seventh on the first count but leapfrogged over everyone on the transfers. Basically a lot of what I said on Dublin Bay South applies here, the location of the Burke vote suggests to me that's where he lives or is from. Burke being a very old-fashioned sort of Irish left-wing working-class republican right down to his campaign slogan "One of our own" and his former membership of the IRA. Interesting that in both Bay South and here that Labour led in one electoral division, which suggests that what was left of the Labour was rather personal and geographical indeed (as you may have noticed from the Bay South map even in Dublin city geographical location can matter a lot).

And finally for now Kildare North



Durkan and Lawlor (FG), Lawless and O'Rourke (FF), Murphy (SD) and Stagg (LAB). Murphy, Durkan, Lawless and O'Rourke elected. There's a lot that could be said about this map but it seems to indicate that the Social Democrats did best in the more upmarket towns-now-turned-commuter-suburbs including Maynooth, which has a university in it (whose alumni include yours truly) and Leixlip, home of one of Ireland's biggest white-collar industrial employers, Intel. Meanwhile Fianna Fail did best in the more purpose built suburbs which grew massively from the 1980s onwards like Naas and Celbridge. While the rural areas of the constituency were divided between FF and FG. Although it is difficult to tell in detail without percentages.

[ObserverIE]

Cross Post with AAD

Poll Topper in Dublin Bay South

Online box-by-box tally here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MGha6XTIXwbFHk5sJ1NQd6qNC56hkmvzpWyy-49PEFE/htmlview?pli=1#gid=1660253863

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Bobos - I don't think hipsters could afford Ranelagh these days. Rathmines and the adjacent area across the canal around Portobello/South Circular Road are more manageable.

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(No, I'm not sure how they define this).
[/quote]

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Cross Post with AAD

Poll Topper in Dublin Bay South

Online box-by-box tally here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MGha6XTIXwbFHk5sJ1NQd6qNC56hkmvzpWyy-49PEFE/htmlview?pli=1#gid=1660253863

Thanks for that. Going through those results now, may produce maps later, anyway I wonder who was voting in Box 315 in Mansion House A, the results were:

Andrews (SF) 210 (54.7%)
Mooney (PBP) 36 (9.4%)
Humphries (LAB) 28 (7.3%)
O'Callaghan (FF) 24 (6.25%)
Flynn (IND) 22 (5.7%)

With Fine Gael's two candidates all together getting 11 votes, only one more vote than was spoiled.

[ObserverIE]

Cross Post with AAD

Poll Topper in Dublin Bay South

Online box-by-box tally here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MGha6XTIXwbFHk5sJ1NQd6qNC56hkmvzpWyy-49PEFE/htmlview?pli=1#gid=1660253863

Thanks for that. Going through those results now, may produce maps later, anyway I wonder who was voting in Box 315 in Mansion House A, the results were:

Andrews (SF) 210 (54.7%)
Mooney (PBP) 36 (9.4%)
Humphries (LAB) 28 (7.3%)
O'Callaghan (FF) 24 (6.25%)
Flynn (IND) 22 (5.7%)

With Fine Gael's two candidates all together getting 11 votes, only one more vote than was spoiled.

At a wild guess, it probably covers some of the Corporation housing blocks on Pearse Street.

List of streets in each polling district at http://www.dublincity.ie/sites/default/files/content/YourCouncil/CouncilPublications/Documents/Polling%20Scheme%202009%20final.pdf. It's from 2009 but there won't have been many new addresses generated since then,

[DavidB.]

My understanding is that the Labour demographics in this election resembled the electorates of fellow small liberal parties in other European countries.

Actually in this election the liberals - Jan O'Sullivan apart - who got wiped out. It's its more small town base around long Labour traditions or personal voting where it survived (Penrose in L-W, Sherlock in Cork East, Wexford, Nenagh...)

I think Xahar was talking about Labour's electorate, not about its MPs.

[Famous Mortimer]

So I take it final numbers are finally out now? What are they?

Also, can someone give a run down of who all the independents are?

[ObserverIE]

So I take it final numbers are finally out now? What are they?

FG 50, FF 44 (-1 as speaker), SF 23, Lab 7, Alphabet Left 6 (SP 3, SWP 3), SD 3, GP 2, Oth 23.

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From five years ago with appropriate modifications:

Which type of politicAL distirbution the new independents are.

On the left:

Five from the United Left Alliance:
Joe Higgins (Dublin West), Clare Daly (Dublin NorthFingal) - both Socialist Party.  Daly left the SP over her political and personal associations with Mick Wallace (see below). Has developed a reputation, along with Wallace, as a general ferreter-out of various types of wrongdoing and dodgy dealings (property transactions, police corruption, the use of airport facilities for prisoner renditions). Probably the brains of the pair.

Richard Boyd-Barrett (Dún Laoghaire), Joan Collins (Dublin South Central) - both People Before Profit (Boyd-Barrett is a member of the Socialist Workers' Party, whose front organisation People Before Profit is, while Collins is a former member of the Socialist Party). Collins left PBP, was involved in an abortive attempt with Daly to form another grouping called United Left, and is loosely associated with Daly, Wallace and Tommy Broughan (see below) in a very loose grouping called Independents4Change. Heavily involved in protests over water charges and had been acquitted on a public order charge in relation to same during the course of the campaign.

Séamus Healy (Tipperary]s] South[/s]) - Workers and Unemployed Action Group (local group in Clonmel town). Left the ULA early and has remained unattached from the other groupings. Republican/Trotskyist leanings.

Other left:
Maureen O'Sullivan (Dublin Central) and Finian McGrath (Dublin North CentralBay North) - both associated with the late Tony Gregory, would be generally left of Labour but pragmatic where local issues are concerned. McGrath is part of Shane Ross's "Independent Alliance".

Catherine Murphy (Kildare North) - former member of the Workers' Party,Democratic Left and Labour who left the latter party in 2004. Now with the Social Democrats.

John Halligan (Waterford) - former member of the Workers' Party who left due to disagreements on local service charges, was unsucessfully wooed by Labour as a candidate earlier this year. Now part of the "Independent Alliance".

Tommy Broughan (Dublin Bay North) - Long-term former Labour TD who was opposed to going into coalition from the start and left the party early over a U-turn over the renewal of the Bank Guarantee. Part of Independents4Change.

Thomas Pringle (Donegal South West) - originally elected as an independent to the local county council and then self-described as a "republican socialist", then joined and subsequently left Sinn Féin. Narrowly re-elected this time in a larger constituency.

Catherine Connolly (Galway West) - former Labour councillor who left the party in the 2000s to stand as an independent due to being outmanouevred in the local succession battle to Michael D. Higgins.

Katherine Zappone (Dublin South West) - American-born, prominent in the same-sex marriage debate (she had married her Irish spouse in Canada and had sought recognition of the union in the Irish courts, only to be rebuffed). Appointed a senator by Éamonn Gilmore and was perceived as being close to Labour, but has been active in education initiatives in Tallaght, so was not just a culture-war candidate, and took what would formerly have been the last Labour seat in the constituency.

Mick Wallace (Wexford) - building contractor and property developer who runs the local soccer team and who was noted during the last decade for using properties to host banners opposing Irish facilitation of the US invasion of Iraq and the war in Kosovo among other causes. Leftish but maverick. Closely associated with Daly politically and personally. Doesn't do constituency work, which saw his vote share go down noticeably this time. Part of Independents4Change.

"Gene-pool" FF:
Mattie McGrath (Tipperary South) - spent four years as a semi-permanent stone in the shoe of successive Fianna Fáil leaders before finally jumping ship in 2011. Canny operator. Socially conservative but concentrates on rural issues.

Healy-Rae (X 2) (Kerry South) - no more need be said.

Kevin "Boxer" Moran (Longford-Westmeath) - former FF councillor in Athlone who had the temerity to challenge Mary "Mammy" O'Rourke and got run out of the local organisation as a reward. Ran as an independent in 2011, taking most of the local FF vote with him, but failed to be elected then and at the 2014 by-election. Was prominent when the town suffered badly from flooding this winter (the government parties were viewed as taking a hands-off approach for too long) and swept the boards locally this time. Part of the "Independent Alliance".

"Gene-pool" PD:
Noel Grealish (Galway West) - was elected as a PD in 2002 in succession to the long-term TD and Minister Bobby Molloy and has held on ever since. Constituency grafter rather than orator.

"Gene-pool" FG:
Michael Lowry (Tipperary North) - former FG cabinet minister who was forced to stand down and subsequently resigned as a party member due to questionable business links, has acted as a "sugar daddy" for his constituency. Was condemned by the Moriarty judicial tribunal at the start of the last Dáil and was publicly censured, but felt no need to consider his position as a result. FG's tar-baby - he will support them but they don't want to be publicly associated with him.

Denis Naughten (Roscommon-Galway) - former FG TD who left the party when FG reneged on a promise to keep the local A&E unit open. Was associated with Lucinda Creighton in the "Reform Alliance" (the precursor to Renua) but didn't join the party. May return to FG but not while Kenny is in charge.

Other right:

Shane Ross (Dublin South) - stockbroker, business journalist and general commentator and campaigner on shareholder issues. Has gained notice for his criticism of the business culture that led to the current crash (although he was less critical of some of the major figures involved during the time of the bubble itself). Member of the Senate for Trinity College Dublin and briefly a member of Fine Gael in the early 90s, which liaison ended badly. Anglo-Irish self-publicist and prime mover in the "Independent Alliance", whose main aim seems to be to get him a cabinet position.

Stephen Donnelly (Wicklow) - former management consultant with McKinsey and Harvard Kennedy School of Government graduate, campaigned on economic issues in generally vague terms. Now with the Social Democrats.

Both of these are highly critical of the terms of the EU/IMF bailout and general banking policy.

Others:
Michael Fitzmaurice (Roscommon-Galway) - succeeded Luke "Ming" Flanagan after the latter was elected to the European Parliament in 2014. Doesn't share his predecessor's views on herb, but is active in opposition to restrictions on turf-cutting brought in by EU regulations (the ability to cut and use turf as fuel instead of other fuels being a major issue in rural areas). Generally vocal on the run-down of services in rural areas and the lack of any perceived economic recovery outside of Dublin. Part of the "Independent Alliance".

Michael Harty (Clare) - local general practitioner, stood on a platform of opposition to cuts in rural medical services and rural neglect more generally.

Michael Collins (Cork South West) - no, not that Michael Collins. Farmer from far west Cork standing on a platform protesting neglect of rural areas.

Seán Canney (Galway East) - another rural independent and member of the "Independent Alliance".