ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet

[Zaybay]

So far, there are really 4 key candidates that could possibly go against Collins that are big names.

Pingree: Maine's Representative for the First District

Golden: Maine's Representative for the Second District

Gideon: Current Speaker of the Maine House

Jackson: Current Senate Majority Leader for the Democrats

[Zaybay]

I was under the assumption that Golden was never really going to run in the first place. Its ME guys, its not some impossible mission where the Democrats need some top tier candidate. You just need some typical mudslinging.

[Zaybay]

https://news.bloombergenvironment.com/environment-and-energy/maines-pingree-wants-fellow-farmers-to-lead-climate-discussion

Representative Chellie Pingree(D-ME01) and her daughter, Hannah Pingree, will not challenge Susan Collins.

[Zaybay]

Collins not running would be a godsend to Schumer and the rest of the Senate Ds, but a danger for Gideon. Without Collins, we would probably see every D and their mother running for what would appear to be a safe and easy pickup.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1154436030612869127

 

[Zaybay]

Im pretty sure the reason people are excited is because she reached an even approval in the summer of 2019. Approval ratings rarely go up during a campaign cycle, and shes already reached the same point Donelly, McCaskill, and Heitkamp reached in the Summer/Fall of 2018. If the election were to be held today, then yes, much of the points brought up by y'all would be incredibly valid and Collins would probably win. Lets see what another year does to her chances.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/SteveCollinsSJ/status/1162387200958484487

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/jakesherman/status/1207259116613373956?s=21

[Zaybay]

1. And Mark Pylor was such a strong incumbent that the Republicans didnt even bother to challenge him in 2008. Times change, and incumbents can gain a strong brand or have it dashed entirely.

2. This is true. Problem for Collins is the quantity of such voters. From what little info we have, her approval has dropped dramatically with both Democrats and Independents. Interestingly enough, her approval with Rs has actually been on the rise over the course of this campaign cycle, likely due to some of her more conservative position taking, even as her overall approval crumbles.
https://bangordailynews.com/2020/04/13/politics/poll-mainers-trust-state-government-more-than-feds-on-coronavirus-response/

3. This is a poor interpretation of the 2018 senate race. Angus King was the de-facto Democrat in the race. Zak Ringelstein, the "Democratic" candidate in the race, was much more of a protest candidate than anything else.

4. While we dont know how Democratic Maine will be, we do know that its hard to win a reeelection bid in an unfavorable state with a poor approval rating.

5. While most of this is rather subjective, one cant really fault Gideon when it comes to fundraising.
https://bangordailynews.com/2020/04/15/politics/sara-gideon-leapfrogs-susan-collins-in-fundraising-ahead-of-2020-us-senate-race/

6. She can try that, but anyone can tell you that its easier to destroy a reputation than to build one up.

7. Thats right, if Maine goes to Biden by, say, 7 points, then she only has to overperform Trump by 7 points. The entire problem for Collins is that she may not be able to do that for reasons already discussed.

8. Refer back to point 6.


I dont think anyone truly believes that the race is in the bag for Gideon, but we're 6 months out from the election and Collins' position looks terrible. She's not DOA, but shes also definately not favored.

[Zaybay]

Im honestly surprised.

Gideon raises 3x what Collins raises, the public polls we have portray Collins in trouble, Gideon still has a reserve of $4 million waiting for her after the primary, Trump and Collins' approval have tanked in the state and because of Collins releasing an internal that had her up by 8 suddenly everyone goes back to treating Collins as this unbeatable titan who will somehow overperform by so much that the race is a tossup.

[Zaybay]

Im honestly surprised.

Gideon raises 3x what Collins raises, the public polls we have portray Collins in trouble, Gideon still has a reserve of $4 million waiting for her after the primary, Trump and Collins' approval have tanked in the state and because of Collins releasing an internal that had her up by 8 suddenly everyone goes back to treating Collins as this unbeatable titan who will somehow overperform by so much that the race is a tossup.

Some of Atlas can change ratings based on impulse because of minor things that don't really matter. For me, it's not just this poll. I've always thought Collins has been a slight favorite to win, in the best and worst of times for her. Unlike Collins, other Rs up for re-election in states Biden is prolly gonna win haven't gotten their chance to build up their brand of politics. Not only has Collins been around for ever, she is well known (for the better and for the worse), and her state is relatively small in terms of population, and physical size, which means she can play more local politics. RCV also allows her to run to the center after the R primary without risking many votes since people who don't think she's extreme enough will almost surely put her before Gideon. Most polls that had Gideon leading had way too many "undecided" voters, and Gideon's lead was narrow. This new poll isn't great either, and TBH, all of the ME polls so far have been pretty low quality. Ds also have long term demographic issues in ME; I expect Biden to win this cycle, but I think the margin will be underwhelming relative to the popular vote. The GOP is working on peeling off white voters in the mid west right now; the next region for them to make inroads in the North East. Collins is by no means impossible to beat, but she won't lose by default because Biden wins ME.

You're problem is that you're running with the notion that Collins is still a very popular and beloved figure in Maine who only needs to run to the center to pick up more voters.

Based on the public polling we have, Collins' approval has long been shot. And, as I said in your thread asking people to explain how Collins could lose, pivoting to the center doesnt automatically gain you voters.

[Zaybay]

Im honestly surprised.

Gideon raises 3x what Collins raises, the public polls we have portray Collins in trouble, Gideon still has a reserve of $4 million waiting for her after the primary, Trump and Collins' approval have tanked in the state and because of Collins releasing an internal that had her up by 8 suddenly everyone goes back to treating Collins as this unbeatable titan who will somehow overperform by so much that the race is a tossup.

Some of Atlas can change ratings based on impulse because of minor things that don't really matter. For me, it's not just this poll. I've always thought Collins has been a slight favorite to win, in the best and worst of times for her. Unlike Collins, other Rs up for re-election in states Biden is prolly gonna win haven't gotten their chance to build up their brand of politics. Not only has Collins been around for ever, she is well known (for the better and for the worse), and her state is relatively small in terms of population, and physical size, which means she can play more local politics. RCV also allows her to run to the center after the R primary without risking many votes since people who don't think she's extreme enough will almost surely put her before Gideon. Most polls that had Gideon leading had way too many "undecided" voters, and Gideon's lead was narrow. This new poll isn't great either, and TBH, all of the ME polls so far have been pretty low quality. Ds also have long term demographic issues in ME; I expect Biden to win this cycle, but I think the margin will be underwhelming relative to the popular vote. The GOP is working on peeling off white voters in the mid west right now; the next region for them to make inroads in the North East. Collins is by no means impossible to beat, but she won't lose by default because Biden wins ME.

You're problem is that you're running with the notion that Collins is still a very popular and beloved figure in Maine who only needs to run to the center to pick up more voters.

Based on the public polling we have, Collins' approval has long been shot. And, as I said in your thread asking people to explain how Collins could lose, pivoting to the center doesnt automatically gain you voters.

With RCV, it makes it much more beneficial for canidates to run to the center, or at least be perceived as "bipartisan", since they won't lose as many votes from their own party base.  Also, much of her low approval is just Republicans who dislike her. Even though Ds and Independents like her less than before, she still does have some crossover appeal.

Your RCV explanation doesnt really mean much. Both Gideon and Collins can serve to benefit from RCV, the question is who the set of voters in said pool prefer. Which leads to approvals, approvals that show Collins being rather disliked. While you are correct that some of this pool are Republicans, they dont make up that much of the overall group. Any of the public polls will show that.

Collins really doesnt have any tricks up her sleeve, and is being outraised by an astronomical amount. Its not 2014 anymore, and Collins should be a little more than concerned for her reelection.

[Zaybay]

I'm glad this forum has began to come to the realization that defeating Susan Collins will not be easy, even in a Biden slide. Not saying whether Collins will win or lose; this race is tossup, maybe Collins is a slight favorite, but it's not lean D.

Honestly question, why are you so pessimistic? Not being rude or anything, but a honest question. Biden could win the popular vote by 7-9 points. How would the GOP hold maine of all places in that Scenario. Not to mention that her approvals are plummeting. One biased internal doesn’t make Collins the favorite.

Tbh atlas put a little too much stock in polls, and not enough in fundamentals. If a poll showing Gideon up 8 came out, this race would be considered likely D and Collins would be declared DOA

Insert long paragraph here

Lets go through this one step at a time.

Some of her disapproval is from Republcians angry about her votes to save health care and such, but they will still put her before Gideon

This is true, but doesnt include the full picture. Her approval with independents and Democrats is still terrible, even in the few public polls that she's doing relatively well in. Just because some of the dissaprovers are Republicans doesnt mean that her approvals are actually really good once you account for them.

. This is a senate race in a small state; politics is much more local.

This statement is rather meaningless. The same logic could apply to Heitkamp in 2018, or Bacaus in 2014, or Heller in 2018, etc. In fact, this same train of logic also serves to benefit Sarah Gideon.

Collins has her brand.

Your "brand" cant save you when your unpopular.

She can run to the center because of RCV and gain votes from "moderates", while still having the far-right put her above Gideon.

Similarly to the "small state" point, RCV serves to benefit both candidates, especially the candidate that is more liked by the 3rd party pool. Considering how unpopular Collins is, that candidate is Gideon.

She had to be kinda hardcore for a bit in order to win her primary.

She does, and that hardcore-ness doesnt just get forgotten by the electorate nor the Democrats who are making ads and planning attacks.

She has certainly lost a good chunk of her moderate appeal after Kavanaugh and impeachment; but are these 2 votes really enough to lose all of her crossover appeal? No.

This is a highly opinionated statement thats not really backed up by anything. Any pollster will tell you that Collins has suffered from her choices.

Polling in ME has been pretty bad so far, so I don't really care about the polls all that much in this senate race.

So you're throwing out all the public polls because they are "pretty bad", yet you are completely trusting of an internal done by the NRSC, a poll that they didnt even bother to publish the crosstabs or really anything about said poll?

The polls that showed Gideon ahead had a huge number of undecided voters, many of which could break for Collins if she does one major vote to "appease moderates" and bring the undecides heavily to her.

To be quite honest, this is a fantastical statement. We know that said pool of undecided voters dont like Collins in these polls, and yet one major vote will suddenly appease them and cause them to forget about their previous distaste for the incumbent? I wish politics were that simple.



Im going to be quite honest, it sounds as if you're working backwards. Instead of using the data, the fundraising, the presidential polls, etc. to create an opinion about the ME-Senate race, you have the notion that Collins must be doing good/in a very close race that she can win and working from there. Hell, this entire thread has the title "Convince me Susan Collins will lose", and has had poster after poster give reason after reason on this matter, and yet you're still saying almost the exact same message that you opened up this thread with months ago.

Collins technically can win, but a lot needs to change in both her approvals and current environment in Maine for that to happen. She needs to pick-up her fundraising, she needs Trump to not be despised in the state, she needs a lot of work to be done, much of which is out of her control. Its not as simple as "run to the center".

[Zaybay]

I'm starting to wonder if you guys actively want Collins to win, considering how many bones you've thrown her even after poll after poll shows her situation as untenable.