Hope Kean runs. Guadogno is DOA, given her ties to Christie. But Kean is moderate enough that he could definitely win it, and he has less Christie baggage.
Kean is kind of dull-witted, but he's not stupid enough to run in a race where he'd be sure to lose and also unnecessarily associate himself with the Christie administration.
Guadagno and Ciattarelli both seem like bad picks to even try to hold the governorship. They were both publicly anti-Trump which could offend a lot of Trumpists, and I doubt their bold stance on that makes a damn bit of difference to the people who utterly despise the Christie admin, which Guadagno will be tied to. Coattarelli might do marginally better than Guadagno, but I suspect this race is likely D, and more on the safe side than the lean side.
Realistically, the Republicans don't have the option of trying to retain the governorship, so who they pick is basically irrelevant (and they know this). They're just trying to salvage what they can in the state legislature. Guadagno is a sacrificial lamb. She's too tied to Christie to have a political career in New Jersey after the end of Christie's administration.
The GOP could lose seats in the Senate and Assembly; that would be bad for Bramnick or Kean's Senate prospects in 2018 against Menendez.
I don't see what the fact that the Republicans are going to lose seats in the state legislature necessarily has to do with the Republicans' chances at the Senate seat in 2018, although the chances of knocking off Menendez in a Trump midterm are laughably small.
