2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Do we have any theories here? Is the shutdown repolarizing Republicans to their party? Or is there a tax cut bump for Republicans?

This poll was pre-shutdown.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Republicans are nearing extinction as a party as their collapse continues in a new Quinnipiac poll:

51% Democrats (+1)
38% Republicans (-1)

Source

Jesus christ, is any republican even going to be left after this? Total disaster for the GOP - imagine what happens in a recession.

Democrats surging as people realize how bad tax reform was.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Yeah I'm pretty sure far more people know and are annoyed by Trump than Pelosi. Pelosi hasn't gotten nearly as many headlines as Trump (who is omnipresent in the news) in the past year.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

The GOP is finished. Libs using extra monies from Trump tax scam to send to lib candidates

That's all you ever post in these types of threads I swear.

Because elections are predictable if you know what to look for. This site absolutely loses it with 1 bad poll while ignoring the special election victories in deep red districts, gobs of money being raised, Trump's abysmal approval rating, etc...

Except unlike 2010 and 2014 the GOP is more popular than Trump (in 2010 Obama was more popular than the Dem Party)

The GOP had a 43% favorable rating vs Trump 49% approval in Alabama. Trump is more popular than the gop in basically every poll I've seen.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

NEW POLL: PA-15 (current version)

http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/pennsylvania/capitol-ideas/mc-nws-15th-district-congress-poll-dent-trump-casey-20180208-story,amp.html?__twitter_impression=true

Remember this is a Trump +8 district

Generic D: 38
Generic R: 35

• Casey above water 34-31
  Wolf above water 37-32
  Trump disapproval 56%, approval not given.
  Tax bill above water 42-39
  Dent highly popular.

The voters in this district can't make up their mind on anything besides Trump apparently.

Also it says Trump's approval in the district is 40%.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Democrats would have 10 more safe seats in California if it was gerrymandered in favor of democrats.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/california/#Dem

Young Conservative, do you ever start to feel bad whenever you post nonsense that is easily disproven? You do this a lot.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Morning Consult

R+1

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/14/trump-polling-democrats-republicans-407315

Despite more independents backing dems and more republicans crossing over than dems, this poll somehow spit out R+1. Idk how they managed to poll more Republicans than dems even though dems outnumber republicans by 5%. With a more realistic sample, this poll would be D+6.

Consult feels like a joke pollster with all the crazy high Trump approvals they come out with.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

PA 18 will be the first good test.   Trump is almost even in approval in PA in the Morning consult poll.  Both parties are significantly involved.nt the issue.  What

I believe the Democrats need to take Trump’s bargain on immigration, if they do not want a backlash.  The majority actually support the parts of the bargain.  Then you can hope Trump’s base revolts against nearly 2 million in effect given amnesty.

But then what do I know about how Democrats think?  You may want the issue.  Whatever!

PA 18 will be Saccone +8 imo. Trump won it by almost 20 and the gop is investing a ton into it.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

who in the hell has politico pro?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

since when did will hurd become so popular?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

he wasn't unpopular but he barely won in 2016

also what the heck is going on in kansas? didnt trump win there by 20?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Limo is also on RRH again this morning posting the same links over there. Really not that smart, Andrew.

Can you explain the limo = andrew from rrh thing? (also what is rrh)

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

There's a new Atlas function where you can completely block an ignored users posts. I suggest you guys do that, because this forum is far better when you don't have to see LimoLibel and King Tear's posts.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

There's a new Atlas function where you can completely block an ignored users posts. I suggest you guys do that, because this forum is far better when you don't have to see LimoLibel and King Tear's posts.

How do you do that? The only three people I have on ignore now are Bagel, smolt and Lear. Andrew will probably go on eventually.

Profile --> Atlas - Forum Options (this was just added in the new update) > Hide posts by ignored users more thoroughly

By doing this, you can rid yourself of Andrew forever.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Also, why would LimoLibel care that someone is calling him "Andrew" if it's not true? It's just a regular name after all.

The reason he cares is because it's true and it's a secret he didn't want out.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

At this rate, the REpublican party will cease to exist by May.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Apparently Rasmussen did a generic ballot poll.

Democrats - 46%
Republicans - 40%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

Disasterous for the gop. If we unskew the polls, this is actually D+20. LittleLiberal is bawling his eyes out.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

From the dearly departed:

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Tax reform, tariff, and denuclearization Surge.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

BTW, the 538 aggregate has the generic ballot at D+6.2. That's the lowest margin for Democrats since February 5th. I'll be interested to see where that goes the next couple weeks.

It's almost like it was preordained:

It's scary how close these two graphs are... and the ending looks accurate given the fact that premiums soar right before midterms

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Oh god is this that time of the year again  when Trump approval goes slightly up and CGB tightens a bit and Atlas has a freaks out

Most of these shifts can just be attributed to the sample the poll uses. This sample seems to have polled about the same as many republicans as it did democrats (aka, not what the voters in November will be).

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I'm honestly not convinced that the electorate has changed at all since May of last year. People don't change their opinions every 10 seconds unless something major happens. Special elections results have been extremely consistent (12% swing before January --> 13% swing after January) despite the GCB going up and down and all around.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Congressman Rick Saccone is pleased at these results

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

It’s really amazing to see the Democratic lead collapse again, this is starting to get very reminiscent of the 2016 election where Hillary would take a big lead and then a couple weeks later Trump would start surging, and it would go back and forth like that until Election Day happened to occur during a week Trump was surging. My gut tells me the Democratic lead will fluctuate between now and November, but when the election happens, it will be when Republicans are on an upswing, thus resulting in them holding the House and gaining several senate seats.

Oh, your gut says poll numbers will fluctuate over the next 8 months? Amazing analysis.

rofl

King Lear, how was your gut in VA-Gov, PA-18, and AL-Senate?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

It’s really amazing to see the Democratic lead collapse again, this is starting to get very reminiscent of the 2016 election where Hillary would take a big lead and then a couple weeks later Trump would start surging, and it would go back and forth like that until Election Day happened to occur during a week Trump was surging. My gut tells me the Democratic lead will fluctuate between now and November, but when the election happens, it will be when Republicans are on an upswing, thus resulting in them holding the House and gaining several senate seats.

People over-learning what happened in the most recent election and forgetting all of the election history that came before it are probably going about this the wrong way. Is there a chance that Republicans beat expectations in November? Sure. Is it likely? Probably not. But in the event that it does happen, it won't be because 2016 is the pattern for all elections going forward.

Yeah, King Lear sounds like those Hillary supporters who thought Hillary would overperform because Obama overperformed in 2012, lol.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

PPP poll of South Carolina CD 1, which Trump won 54-40 and Romney won 58-40.

https://www.postandcourier.com/cunningham-st-district-poll/pdf_60d4f8e6-3431-11e8-8249-6361aacaeb48.html

Trump approval: 46/47.

Generic Congressional ballot: R 46, D 40.

Mark Sanford favorability: 44/40.

Reelect Sanford or prefer someone new?  Sanford 38, someone new 52.

Prefer a Republican who will support Trump's agenda, or a Democrat who will work across party lines to get results?   D 53, R 40.

The last four viewed together are interesting, to say the least.  I'm not quite sure what to make of them.

Devastating poll for democrats. How can dems win the house when they are down by 6 in districts like this?