WV special election: October 4, 2011 (Primary on May 14)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

http://www.wvgazette.com/News/201101180902

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http://sundaygazettemail.com/News/201102031182

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[JohnnyLongtorso]

She's not running.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The election has been set... for October 4.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The election has been set... for October 4.

OK, why not a month later when the regular election for local races is held? Doesn't seem to make sense to pay for 2 elections that close together. 

What's the catch? Or more specifically, who does this odd timing benefit?

It looks like municipal elections are held in June, not November. As to who it benefits, I would guess the Democrats, since it was Tomblin who had to call the election.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Looks like the special election is set for October 4, with a primary on May 14.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The filing deadline was Friday... The list of primary candidates is long. (The important names are Earl Ray Tomblin, Natalie Tennant, and Betty Ireland.)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

If the money race is any indication, this won't be at all competitive. Earl Ray Tomblin, Rick Thompson, and John Perdue all raised big bucks, while the theoretical Republican frontrunner, Betty Ireland, only raised $79,000, and was actually outraised by one of the other Republicans running, a businessman type named Bill Maloney.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I think Tomblin will win with around 35% of the vote; Thompson might pull in some of the wavering anti-Tomblin votes from the other candidates, but I doubt he can make up a double-digit deficit.

For the Republicans, I think Maloney will win in an upset.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's the link for the AP's results page. Polls close at 7:30 Eastern (3.5 hours from now).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Polls close in 10 minutes; here's the SOS site. I don't know which will be faster.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

First handful of precincts in, Tomblin leads Tennant 42-22, while Maloney leads Ireland 49-41.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

About 10% in, and Tomblin leads Tennant and Thompson by a 44-18-18 margin. Maloney retains a 44-40 lead over Ireland.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Now around 1/4th in, Tomblin leads Thompson 42-21. Maloney ahead 45-34.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Tomblin has this in the bag. Thompson and Tennant are just fighting it out for the right to run against him next year (if either of them choose to).

Ireland is still screwed.

Tennant would probably not give up her Secretary of State post for what appears to be a doomed challenge.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

A tentative map of the primary results:



Pretty obvious where most of the candidates are from, except John Perdue (from Boone County, resides in Charleston) randomly won some counties in the eastern panhandle, probably because nobody bothered to advertise there (Pendleton County is in the Harrisonburg, Virginia media market, and everything northeast of there is in the Washington DC market).