Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Tender Branson]

Kurz explains the firing of Interior Minister Kickl with the fact that "it's impossible that he remains in charge of future investigations against his own party in Ibiza-Gate".

[Tender Branson]

With the FPÖ getting serious now to pull out all of their remaining 4 cabinet members + 1 state secretary (Strache and Kickl are already out), the best thing Kurz could do now is to find some kind of truce with the other opposition parties (the FPÖ is now an opposition party again) and appoint independent experts who are let's say "SPÖ-affiliated" (for the Health Ministry), or "Green-affiliated" (for the Infrastructure Ministry) and "NEOS-affiliated" (for the Interior Ministry) or something, to keep his options open for after the elections ...

Otherwise, Kurz may win the election big - but will face roadblocks in forming a new government.

[Tender Branson]

BREAKING NEWS:

All FPÖ-cabinet members are leaving Kurz's ÖVP-FPÖ government, after Kurz said an hour ago that he will fire Interior Minister Kickl (FPÖ).

The FPÖ will also prepare their own no-confidence vote for Kurz, after the party "NOW" has already announced one.

Link

That was quick.

[Tender Branson]

The next special meeting of parliament will take place next week after the EU election, so FPÖ, SPÖ and Co. can figure out what to do with Kurz in the meantime.

Impeach him or not ?

In case a majority of MPs vote yes, Kurz is ousted as Chancellor and would have to resign. President VdB would have to appoint a new, independent caretaker Chancellor for the next 4-6 months or so, until the new government is formed.

The ousting of Kurz would not mean his end (he could still win the election and come back), but it would still be a humiliation for him, being rejected in parliament ...

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ just announced that they will definitely vote for the Kurz no-confidence proposal by the party "NOW" next week.

The big question will be how the SPÖ decides ...

[Tender Branson]

Update:

A vote of no-confidence against Kurz has been set for Monday. JETZT/NOW will introduce the vote, but NEOS will vote against (out of stability reasons). It is unclear what the SPÖ will do. In the morning, the FPÖ said they will back it, now everything is unsure again.

President VdB today dismissed all FPÖ cabinet members except Foreign Minister Karin Kneissl (an Independent presented by the FPÖ). She has said she would like to continue over the next months and VdB accepted.

Kurz will name independent experts for the void FPÖ cabinet positions tonight and present the names to VdB.

VdB will speak to the nation at around 7:45pm and could swear in the new cabinet members tomorrow after briefly meeting with them.

[Tender Branson]

Eckart Ratz, former Supreme Court of Justice President, will follow Kickl and become the new Interior Minister:

[Tender Branson]

The 1999 Vengaboys song „Going to Ibiza“ has reached #1 in the Austrian charts:

https://twitter.com/evanoconnell/status/1130355231282421760

(In their original video btw, you can see Monica Lewinsky giving a blowjob to Bill Clinton, in the Capitol, not in the White House ... )

[Tender Branson]

Philippa Strache has abandoned her husband and moved back in with her parents and their newborn son Hendrik:

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Philippa-Strache-ist-mit-Kind-ausgezogen/381024623

[Tender Branson]

President Van der Bellen's primetime speech to the nation did not yet provide the names for the interim government, but focused more on morals.

He said that people should not lose trust in politics in disgust, that the 2 people involved in Ibiza-Gate are the exception and not the norm and encouraged people to vote in the EU election on Sunday.

He also urged politicians from all parties to be careful over the next few days and weeks and put their own party interests below the interest of citizens ("stability") and the country and its reputation abroad.

He closed with a Merkel-like: "Wir schaffen das !"

[Tender Branson]

Valerie Hackl is likely to become the new Infrastructure Minister, succeeding Norbert Hofer.

Hackl is a former ÖBB (railway) manager, apppointed by former SPÖ-Chancellor Christian Kern, now working for Austro Control (the air navigation services provider that controls Austrian airspace).

[Tender Branson]

Johann Luif likely to become the new Defense Minister:



Luif is SPÖ-affiliated.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/neue-kurz-regierung-wird-schwarz-rot/400501456

Good chess game by Kurz. With those interim appointments it is likely that he will survive the no-confidence vote in parliament on Monday.

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP-NEOS-Greens or ÖVP-Greens-NEOS ("Dirndl", or "Watermelon"-Coalition) would actually be my preferred government, ideologically.

I think the fall election will be a structural one: Currently, about 70% of Austrians think that economically they are well off. That is the highest number since pollster SPECTRA started their quarterly polling on this topic. Not surprising after GDP growth rates of 3% or so over the past 2 years.

During times of good economy, voters tend to vote more for bourgeois parties like the ÖVP, NEOS and Greens and less for working-class parties such as the SPÖ or FPÖ (now even less so).

I think a majority of ÖVP-NEOS-Greens is fairly likely, in the 55% range or something.

[Tender Branson]

Walter Pöltner, another SPÖ-member and former Health Ministry official, to become the new Social Minister:



If Kurz really has picked 3 SPÖ-affiliated people as new cabinet members, I think the SPÖ will drop their no-confidence threat against him. But who knows ?

[Tender Branson]

What happens if there is a motion of no confidence?

Kurz resigns as Chancellor and President VdB appoints a new interim Chancellor of his choosing until the new government is sworn in (in ca. 6 months).

[Tender Branson]

President VdB today dismissed all FPÖ cabinet members except Foreign Minister Karin Kneissl (an Independent presented by the FPÖ). She has said she would like to continue over the next months and VdB accepted.

Wait, so the woman who had Putin show up at her wedding is the only FPÖ member who gets to stay in Cabinet following a scandal in which her party leader was caught attempting to collude with Russian interests?

To be fair: Karin Kneissl is not an FPÖ-member, but an Independent diplomat who speaks like 8 different languages and has lived in the Middle-East for years (the FPÖ appointed her as Foreign Minister). Kneissl invited Putin to her wedding yes, and he accepted and came and they danced together (she said it was good manners).

[Tender Branson]

President Van der Bellen will meet with the new cabinet members today for a brief overview and a little talk with them about their qualifications and then swear them in.

We'll see if something else happens today or not, but it would be nice if things were to focus more on the EU election on Sunday again ...

[Tender Branson]

The new cabinet was sworn in today by President Van der Bellen and after that a cabinet council meeting took place.

The interim cabinet has only 14 instead of 16 members, as Strache‘s agendas (Sports and Civil Servants) have gone to Bogner-Strauß and State Secretary Fuchs was not replaced. Now there are 8 men and 6 women vs. 10-6 before. Finance Minister Löger did become the new Vice-Chancellor.

Norbert Hofer was not only chosen as interim FPÖ leader, but also as frontrunner for the September election, they said today.

[Tender Branson]

Does a lawyer from Vienna and a detective from Munich have something to do with the Ibiza trap ?

https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/oesterreich-heisse-spur-im-ibiza-beben-war-es-dieser-anwalt-62095558.bild.html

[Tender Branson]

Nina Tomaselli likely to lead the Greens into the election and probably back into parliament.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/nina-tomaselli-als-gruenen-spitzenkandidatin-im-gespraech/400502236

[Tender Branson]

Would the newly appointed ministers be gone on Monday if Kurz loses the Nationalrat vote?

This depends on the exact wording of the no-confidence vote initiated by the party NOW on Monday:

If the text says no-confidence against Kurz only, or no-confidence against the whole government.

In the first case, only Kurz would step down as Chancellor and be replaced by President VdB with an interim Chancellor (even though it is possible that some other cabinet ministers also resign in such a case).

In the second case, the whole cabinet would resign and be replaced by a selection of people from VdB.

[Tender Branson]

Does a lawyer from Vienna and a detective from Munich have something to do with the Ibiza trap ?

https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/oesterreich-heisse-spur-im-ibiza-beben-war-es-dieser-anwalt-62095558.bild.html

It’s almost sure now that the 2 are responsible.

https://derstandard.at/2000103643828/Mutmasslicher-Drahtzieher-des-Ibiza-Videos-war-in-Muenchner-Anwaltskanzlei-Untermieter

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Anwalt-und-Detektiv-legten-die-Video-Falle/381262563

They apparently wanted to sell their material for 5 million €, but it’s unclear how much they got for it.

Now, both people have disappeared ...

[Tender Branson]

Some of what happened today:

* Kickl attacked President VdB as a "power enabler" for the ÖVP and told reporters that he will get back and take a seat in parliament to become FPÖ group speaker. Strache will not go back to parliament, he said. Gudenus has already resigned his seat in parliament. No word if Norbert Hofer or other former FPÖ cabinet members will take seats in the Nationalrat.

* The new cabinet members started their work today and the new Interior Minister Eckart Ratz will already have a prominent role on Sunday, when he will present the results of the EU elections at 11pm.

* The sign "Departure Center" was removed from the Traiskirchen refugee camp today. Kickl had previously ordered the biggest refugee acceptance center in Austria to be re-named to departure center. The last executive decree that Kickl presented before he was ousted was to lower the pay for asylum seekers doing vaoluntary community work to 1.5€ per hour (a key FPÖ-policy). Not sure if this will be suspended as well by the new Interior Minister.

* Chancellor Kurz met with key opposition people today (he actually invited all opposition leaders, but only the NEOS one attended his meeting).

* The ÖVP has a chance to delay the no-confidence vote on Monday by 2 days, but decided not to do so. SPÖ and FPÖ announced that they will only decide about their vote shortly before the no-confidence vote on Monday.

[Tender Branson]

Some of what happened today:

* Kickl attacked President VdB as a "power enabler" for the ÖVP and told reporters that he will get back and take a seat in parliament to become FPÖ group speaker. Strache will not go back to parliament, he said. Gudenus has already resigned his seat in parliament. No word if Norbert Hofer or other former FPÖ cabinet members will take seats in the Nationalrat.

* The new cabinet members started their work today and the new Interior Minister Eckart Ratz will already have a prominent role on Sunday, when he will present the results of the EU elections at 11pm.

* The sign "Departure Center" was removed from the Traiskirchen refugee camp today. Kickl had previously ordered the biggest refugee acceptance center in Austria to be re-named to departure center. The last executive decree that Kickl presented before he was ousted was to lower the pay for asylum seekers doing vaoluntary community work to 1.5€ per hour (a key FPÖ-policy). Not sure if this will be suspended as well by the new Interior Minister.

* Chancellor Kurz met with key opposition people today (he actually invited all opposition leaders, but only the NEOS one attended his meeting).

* The ÖVP has a chance to delay the no-confidence vote on Monday by 2 days, but decided not to do so. SPÖ and FPÖ announced that they will only decide about their vote shortly before the no-confidence vote on Monday.

Already suspended.

I also suggest redoing the Austrian flag and placing "Willkommen" in the middle.

Definitely a new great beginning!

The FPÖ still has some chance left to get 20%+ on Sunday if they push this message in the final days, drowning out the negative messages against them.

The reduction of voluntary pay for asylum seekers is fairly popular and taking it back fits the FPÖs „asylum chaos“ posters.

I really don’t know how they will do in the election: they could get 12% or 24% ...

[Tender Branson]

Demox Research poll on Chancellor Kurz's no-confidence vote (n=1.250):

25% Kurz should be voted out of office
64% Kurz should remain in office

ÖVP-voters: 98% Kurz should remain
FPÖ-voters: 54-32 Kurz should remain
SPÖ-voters: 40-48 Kurz should be voted out of office
NEOS-voters: 82-11 Kurz should remain

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/liveticker-tag-fuenf-nach-ende-der-koalition/400502788