UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Zinneke]

More than that, vaccines were explicitly advocated as our "passport to freedom".

In every Western country...and it has severely affected the credibility of institutions just when they are at their most vulnerable.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

To add to this there are a small number of seats that Labour retained in 2019 which they should have lost if you based it on the top-line numbers in the election- there were also a number of seats they almost won in 2017 where the numbers didn't exactly crash. To paint a very broad brush they are largely urban remain voting seats; but not in areas of any historic Labour strength.

It's been overlooked because of just how big the shock was in the infamous 'red wall' but there's been a lack of coverage of the fact that for seats that were once traditional Lab-Con marginals are no-longer- to give one example the two classic West London marginals (Brentford & Isleworth + Ealing & Acton) are now ultra safe Labour seats- and actually look safer than the 'traditional' Labour seats to their margins.

The critical thing as far as the present situation goes is that there remains Conservative potential in the constituencies in question - we aren't talking about demographic eclipse here. In fact Shaun Bailey (of all people!) came fairly close to leading in Brentford & Isleworth on the day vote. And while Hounslow was very much a borough where Khan massively underperformed, that effect was concentrated in the other constituency in the borough: in B&I underperformance compared to the Labour list vote in Hounslow proper was countered by strong overperformance (compared to the list vote etc) at the Chiswick end of the constituency. What's the significance of this? That, probably, there isn't all that much further for the Conservative vote in these places to fall from 2019 (relatively speaking), which means, given how voter movement must all balance out... oh. Oh. Oh.

[afleitch]

More than that, vaccines were explicitly advocated as our "passport to freedom".

They still are. I do think there's been a bit of over ramping of the 'case numbers' because we're at the point where this doesn't matter as much as it did. If it's a stick to get people vaccinated then that's understandable. But they need to be careful with some of the alarmism.

Pre-Christmas restrictions would not only be deeply unpopular but probably too late. They were last year.

The 'too early to say' response to data from South Africa has less weight with each passing day. On that basis if we end up with a managable delta level pressure on the NHS, I doubt there will be any significant restrictions in the New Year.

Doubling up the booster with the winter flu jab prior to the new variant may also prove to be good foresight.

[Blair]

Strong sci-fi 2000s vibes with this background he's created- clearly a bit rattled by his coverage today.

https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1471581977346248712

[Silent Hunter]

New reports in the papers of a pizza party at Number 10 on 15 May 2020 now, when outdoor socialising was based for any more than two people, with Boris popping into this.

[LAB-LIB]

New reports in the papers of a pizza party at Number 10 on 15 May 2020 now, when outdoor socialising was based for any more than two people, with Boris popping into this.

It was only a matter of time before more of these revelations came out. I would be shocked if this type of behavior wasn't even worse than previously reported.

[LAB-LIB]

All ballots have arrived at the count, and reports are that the piles are looking pretty even between the Tory candidate and the Lib Dem candidate. The Tories in the area aren't optimistic and the Green Party candidate thinks the Lib Dems have taken the seat.

EDIT: Lib Dems say they have taken it by a "four figure" margin. That would be huge.

EDIT: Labour says Lib Dem gain as well, on a swing of about 30%.

EDIT: Declaration is imminent. Turnout is 46.3%.

[LAB-LIB]

North Shropshire
LD Gain from CON  


Liberal Democrats Helen Morgan        17,957   47.1%   +37.1%
Conservative  Neil Shastri-Hurst        12,032    31.6%   -31.1%
Labour                      Ben Wood         3,686     9.7%    -12.4%
Green                    Duncan Kerr        1,738      4.6%    +1.4%
Reform UK         Kirsty Walmsley       1,427       3.7%    +3.7%
Majority of 5,925

Swing from CON to LD: 34.1%

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Had to change my username for this. Fans of Tropic Thunder will enjoy.

Knives will be out for Boris.

[Blair]

Here come the letters.

[morgieb]

Had to change my username for this. Fans of Tropic Thunder will enjoy.

Knives will be out for Boris.

It's safe to say that the Tories have gone full r****d over the last few months.

[Former President tack50]

As someone who has not paid attention, can someone give me a run down of how and why Boris Johnson became so unpopular so fast?

[(no subject)]

The results of the North Shropshire by-election saw the Liberal Democrat candidate overturn a Conservative majority of almost 23,000 to win with a majority of nearly 6,000. It is recognised by the newly elected MP that many Labour and Green Party voters loaned their vote to her to enable a major upset to happen.

The result will add more pressure on to Johnson as it was one of the safest Conservative seats in the country.

The previous incumbent, Owen Patterson, resigned after an egregious breach of lobbying rules and an attempt by Johnson to change the rules to save him from a 30 day suspension from the House of Commons. Public opinion was strongly against the blatant attempt to change the rules and has lead to more scandals involving Johnson to come to light. These include breaches of lockdown rules or other restrictions preventing parties going ahead with several parties now known to have happened in 10 Downing Street, Johnson being accused of misleading Lord Geidt about how the Downing Street flat refurbishment was paid for.

Things are bad for Johnson with the Chair of The 1922 Committee saying yesterday that as they are now on Christmas recess, he will accept emailed letters of No Confidence from Conservative MPs provided they are followed up with a confirmatory phone call.

Seeing as Britain is facing a massive wave of infection from the Omicron variant, with almost 90,000 new cases yesterday, all these troubles are self inflicted by Johnson and the public needs a leader who they can trust to look after them. Johnson has been accused of locking down too late and opening up too soon repeatedly.

I suspect that he will face a leadership challenge and I won’t be surprised if the parliamentary party manage to gather around one candidate to avoid a lengthy leadership campaign with party members during the pandemic.

[Geoffrey Howe]

As someone who has not paid attention, can someone give me a run down of how and why Boris Johnson became so unpopular so fast?

The things which made him inexplicably endearing to many - his incompetence, his buffoonery, his disrespect for Parliament and the electorate - have finally become an unquestionable hindrance. Plus lots of COVID scandals (ministers breaking rules at Christmas and so on), the botched attempt to rescue Owen Paterson (former MP for North Shropshire) by changing House of Commons procedures, stalling economy, anger on the Right and in the Tory press, a sense that the Tories have outlived their stay; corrupt, no confidence in their leader etc. etc.

[Cassius]

[MABA 2020]

Does yesterdays dire result cement a no confidence vote in the new year?

[Pericles]

Does yesterdays dire result cement a no confidence vote in the new year?

I'm not an expert but my gut feeling is leadership changes take longer than expected to happen, inertia can keep a failing leader in power for quite a while but not until the next general election and that is now looking less sure for Boris

[Torrain]

The member for North Thanet, Sir Roger Gale, is on BBC News this morning. He’s defending Boris, but has also inferred that the 1922 Committee Chairman has already received a number of letters of no-confidence.

Doesn’t expect the trigger number (52 letters in the current Parliament) to be reached, but refuses to estimate the number sent.

He’s talked quite candidly about the impact of the party scandal on the by-election, and stated outright that he doesn’t expect Johnson to fight the next election. Warned of a leadership election during the peak of winter cases while Johnson is “fighting the pandemic”, but seemed to concede it was somewhat inevitable.

Some of it is just Gale accepting political reality, but it’s been an impressively frank conversation.

[Cassius]

Doubt anything will happen until after the local elections. We've got the recess now until January 4th (although parliament could be recalled earlier) and I doubt anyone will want to launch the party into a leadership challenge until this latest round of COVID bumf is dealt with, which might not be until February at the earliest. Potential candidates will also want time to prepare and set out their stalls, by which point we'll be heading into the local elections in May and I don't think anyone will fancy a change of PM before then, especially if it means Johnson can be lumbered with all of the blame for a bad result.

If the locals are bad for the party, then I can see a no-confidence vote being called (this will probably be the 'one more strike' that Gale alluded to) and Johnson losing, which means a fresh leadership election and a new Prime Minister by about July or August of 2022.

Of course, Johnson could be out sooner than that, if he's sunk by a scandal that forces him to resign (possible) or he could turn things around (seems increasingly unlikely, but it's always unwise to write him off). I think, realistically, if there is to be a change of leader the party has to get it done by the end of 2022/start of 2023. It's probably wise not to go too soon though, as if Johnson is in power until late 2022 then, maybe, that will finally see COVID put to bed so the next leader can focus on fresh challenges rather than being dogged by this issue.

[CumbrianLefty]

There's also the question of whether he goes quietly or not when (and I do think it is now when) the time comes - its often forgotten that May actually resigned as PM without being forced out as such (of course, it is likely there would soon have moves against her if she hadn't gone voluntarily, but it still puts her in a slightly different category to Thatcher and potentially BoJo)

[Blair]

An ex-journalist blames another journalist for last night's loss.

This has very strong similarities to the late era Corbyn & Brown leadership- and Starmer after May. Proper bunker mentality with the endless calls to 'shake up the advisors'.

An interesting thing about following UK politics is you notice what annoys various politicians & how they react; for Boris it is always a case of getting nasty, in a rather sneery way. Calling Emily Thornberry 'baroness something... the baroness nugee'  was another such example.

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1471827747240566785

[Blair]

Doubt anything will happen until after the local elections. We've got the recess now until January 4th (although parliament could be recalled earlier) and I doubt anyone will want to launch the party into a leadership challenge until this latest round of COVID bumf is dealt with, which might not be until February at the earliest. Potential candidates will also want time to prepare and set out their stalls, by which point we'll be heading into the local elections in May and I don't think anyone will fancy a change of PM before then, especially if it means Johnson can be lumbered with all of the blame for a bad result.

If the locals are bad for the party, then I can see a no-confidence vote being called (this will probably be the 'one more strike' that Gale alluded to) and Johnson losing, which means a fresh leadership election and a new Prime Minister by about July or August of 2022.

Of course, Johnson could be out sooner than that, if he's sunk by a scandal that forces him to resign (possible) or he could turn things around (seems increasingly unlikely, but it's always unwise to write him off). I think, realistically, if there is to be a change of leader the party has to get it done by the end of 2022/start of 2023. It's probably wise not to go too soon though, as if Johnson is in power until late 2022 then, maybe, that will finally see COVID put to bed so the next leader can focus on fresh challenges rather than being dogged by this issue.

The bolded is interesting- I've heard a lot of discussion about it being triggered but virtually nothing on the outcome

I assumed that a no-confidence vote would see the usual 'rally round the chief' type response, as we saw with May. Public displays of loyalty from Cabinet Ministers & rivals- and opposition by an assortment of well unpopular people. But after this result, the response, partygate & well inflation not getting much better...

Plus in a no confidence vote after a very bruising locals it would be interesting if it happens quietly e.g the leadership candidates let it be known they're happy for people to vote him down or whether we'd see resignations.

The Tory rules (it's a secret ballot with the option of keeping or removing Boris) do actually make it easier to get rid of Boris compared to the old ones- which required someone to challenge & thus meant you needed someone who could beat them.

On the note of the locals my very poor knowledge is that it's a relatively boring set but as we know when the bottom drops from Governments they really drop in the local elections.

[(no subject)]

A big issue is that there are not too many capable people in the cabinet able to take over and sort out the mess. Johnson has created a mess and broken a lot of trust with his supporters and voters. Several current cabinet members want to become leader (but none are viewed as being particularly talented) and it is believed that the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, and the Foreign Secretary, Liz Truss, are both reported to be 'on manoeuvres' to court back bench MPs.

In the first place, 54 Tory MPs need to write a letter of No Confidence in Johnson to their 1922 Committee (of course more than 54 could write such letters and the exact number would never be disclosed). If that threshold is reached, then a ballot is held and Johnson would need to gain the support of 50% of his MPs plus one, which is currently 181 MPs to stay in post for another year. If he fails to get that amount of support, then a new leadership contest is called and he would not be allowed to enter it.

Some commentators are saying that they are hearing MPs will not challenge him until late winter. We will have to wait and see but many commentators are saying the longer Johnson stays, the more damage he will do to his party.

[CumbrianLefty]

The bottom line is that much of the stuff that worked brilliantly for Johnson originally has come back to firmly bite him in the posterior in the longer term. As many in fact predicted would come to pass, few could have foreseen quite how spectacularly though.

[MABA 2020]

A big issue is that there are not too many capable people in the cabinet able to take over and sort out the mess. Johnson has created a mess and broken a lot of trust with his supporters and voters. Several current cabinet members want to become leader (but none are viewed as being particularly talented) and it is believed that the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, and the Foreign Secretary, Liz Truss, are both reported to be 'on manoeuvres' to court back bench MPs.

Tbh if I were Liz or Rishi I'm not sure I'd want to take over at this point in time only to be captain of a sinking ship.