POLL: Sinema's fate in 2024

[Schiff for Senate]

I'm pretty sure Sinema will win the Democratic primary, even if she faces a challenger.

  The general election, however, is a different matter. It hinges on a.) The mood in general towards Democrats and Biden's approval rating in Arizona, and b.) who controls the Senate.

 If this proves to be a crucial election in that it may be the key to Democrats controlling the Senate, then I expect there will be enough turnout among Democrats to keep Sinema in office, or to help her either way. On the other hand, she isn't an exciting progressive who boosts turnout, so if the Senate is decidedly Republican or decidedly Democratic, it will likely remove any incentive for progressive Democrats who dislike Sinema to vote for her. In this scenario, they would stay home and Sinema would lose reelection.

  The two factors, Biden's popularity in Arizona and the Senate control, are currently unclear and could shift either way, which is why I think it's best to withhold any prediction. After 2022, when we see what happens to Senate control, a more accurate prediction may be made. If the Senate stays like this, with a 50-50 tie, I think that helps Sinema by incentivizing reluctant progressives to support her (a centrist Democrat being better than a Republican Senate), whereas if it is not a tie (and Biden isn't that popular), Sinema's prospects are bleaker.

 I do predict Sinema will win the primary, but the general election is unclear thus far. If the election were held today, I'd say it's either a tossup or tilts Democratic, perhaps - progressives may have their problems with Sinema, but she's better than Senator Gosar or Senator Ducey, either way. Sinema still has time to make the general election lean blue. I think the secret is to become slightly more Democratic on issues like the minimum wage, but be centrist/centre-right on immigration and gun rights, which may be enough to win over moderate voters to whom these issues are important. If the election were held today (and it's important to note that it isn't) the race might tilt or even lean Democratic (although this could change to the benefit of the GOP, obviously, especially if Democrats gain more seat in 2022), since Biden's pretty popular so far, even in Arizona, and this race would determine Senate control. So, for now, if I had to make a guess, I'd say Sinema wins reelection - but that could very well change depending on the 2022 midterms, Kelly's own fate (liberals and progressives may realize then that Sinema is their best hope), and Biden's popularity come 2024.