Nova Scotia election 2006!

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Nova Scotia has a very fickle electorate so you can never tell what will happen... could be quite fun.

Last time round the NDP picked up one or two rural seats IIRC.

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A 10pt drop during the course of a campaign? Ouch... any regional data or?...

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I've read reports that both the NDP and Tories fancy their chances at making big gains in Cape Breton.

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I've read reports that both the NDP and Tories fancy their chances at making big gains in Cape Breton.

Not sure if there's much more than two seats to pick up there, as it's a traditional bastion for the Liberals.

Traditionally it is, yes. But if they really *are* collapsing...
Anyways I do know that both Tory and NDP leaders have been campaigning in some "safe" Liberal seats up there... meanwhile the Tories have apparently thrown a lot of resources into some of their "safe" rural seats.

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What's your prediction then, Al?

Not really sure; things seem even more up-in-the-air than is usual even in a Canadian election. The NDP have certainly run a strong campaign though and seem to have spooked the Tories somewhat. The big question is whether or not the Liberals collapse; they certainly have form for doing that in NS (ie; the 1997 Federal Election) and that Cape Breton (and *all* of it; not just the highly industrial (post-industrial really) core) is being treated as a battleground certainly indicates that it's possible... hmm... might give a seat-by-seat prediction (even though it'd certainly be badly wrong )
The safe prediction is no-majority o/c but...

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According to CBC, 12 Tories, 7 Dippers and two Liberals have been elected. The Tories lead in 10 more, the NDP in 12 more and the Liberals in 8 more.

More details in s ec...

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Latest projection: PC 23, NDP 20, Lib 9

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The Liberal leader has lost.

Tightest race is in Queens (PC for over 50 years)... NDP lead by a handful of votes. A similer riding nearby is also very close.

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Comments: Looks like they were hit hard in CB which is a real suprise in my opinion.

True; I'd sort-of assumed predictions of collapses were *largely* hubris... even more shocking is how, in some ridings where the Liberals were defending (like Victoria) or (like CB Nova) were seen as a threat, voters lined up behind whichever main party wasn't the Liberals. In Cape Breton!
I've just realised that they don't have any safe seats up there anymore; their lead in Glace Bay (who's MLA is pretty popular) was halved and their lead in CB South (an utter stronghold since ever. It's basically the core of Sydney) was also slashed to ribbons...

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True; there leader was running in a suburban Halifax seat though.

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The rural gains were very good (Queens had been PC for 50 years after all), the NDP were screwed by boundary changes on Cape Breton a few years ago making gains hard, although Glace Bay looks like it could be a serious target again (and Centre and Nova look pretty safe now). If MacDonald's personal popularity on Cape Breton starts to decline in the future, an attack on North seems possible (although Cecil Clarke is rather popular himself). Halifax was a bit of a disapointment though.

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I think one could credit the Conservative gains on Cape Breton on the fact their leader is from there, of course. This I didn't realize immediately before the election. It's good to see the massive majorities the NDP picked up in the Dartmouth/Cole Harbour area, might be a good sign federally. Maybe Dexter can challenge Savage in the future

Yeah, the federal implications of this are dire for the Liberals, with the exception of the two western rural ridings (in which they did rather well).

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I think one could credit the Conservative gains on Cape Breton on the fact their leader is from there, of course. This I didn't realize immediately before the election. It's good to see the massive majorities the NDP picked up in the Dartmouth/Cole Harbour area, might be a good sign federally. Maybe Dexter can challenge Savage in the future

Yeah, the federal implications of this are dire for the Liberals, with the exception of the two western rural ridings (in which they did rather well).

Traditional Liberal area is all I can say about that area. Probably because it's French.

One of the areas M.P's is a certain Scott Brison; most of his riding actually swung *to* the Liberals and they nearly shock-gained Hants West (a "safe" PC seat).
It's just occured to me, that both the Tories and Liberals did badly in their respective traditional rural strongholds... (ie; rural CB and the South Shore...)