latest Betfair odds

[The Mikado]

Bush is still way overvalued.

It's funny how overvalued Giuliani was at this point 8 years ago, especially if you look at the thread Morden linked. Giuliani's campaign was crashing and burning at this point.

[Pandaguineapig]

Funny how Betfair still has Rubio with a better chance of winning than Trump and Cruz combined.

It betting on who eventually gets the nomination, not who gets the most media or atlas hype

[The Other Castro]

Funny how Betfair still has Rubio with a better chance of winning than Trump and Cruz combined.

It betting on who eventually gets the nomination, not who gets the most media or atlas hype

Atlas hype is probably a better predictor than most punditry or common wisdom on average.

[Broken System]

Funny how Betfair still has Rubio with a better chance of winning than Trump and Cruz combined.

It betting on who eventually gets the nomination, not who gets the most media or atlas hype

Atlas hype is probably a better predictor than most punditry or common wisdom on average.

Absolutely. It's all coming down to Kasich vs Paul. Bush will be in third and Trump will be in fourth.

[tpfkaw]

Bush is still way overvalued.

It's funny how overvalued Giuliani was at this point 8 years ago, especially if you look at the thread Morden linked. Giuliani's campaign was crashing and burning at this point.

Probably just lack of liquidity. Nobody's buying, so the most recent sale price remains high.

[mencken]

Bush is still way overvalued.

It's funny how overvalued Giuliani was at this point 8 years ago, especially if you look at the thread Morden linked. Giuliani's campaign was crashing and burning at this point.

Probably just lack of liquidity. Nobody's buying, so the most recent sale price remains high.

Would not the cumulative share price be far in excess of 100 were that the case?

[tpfkaw]

Bush is still way overvalued.

It's funny how overvalued Giuliani was at this point 8 years ago, especially if you look at the thread Morden linked. Giuliani's campaign was crashing and burning at this point.

Probably just lack of liquidity. Nobody's buying, so the most recent sale price remains high.

Would not the cumulative share price be far in excess of 100 were that the case?

Lack of liquidity means it's not going to be a perfectly arbitraged market. And you're forgetting the house takes a cut.

[Eraserhead]

Trump is ridiculously low.

[Phony Moderate]

Don't those odds imply that Trump would have a greater than 50% chance of winning the GE if nominated?

[tpfkaw]

Trump is ridiculously low.

You do have to take into account the increasingly desperate lengths to which the political establishment will go to stop him. Expect him to be indicted for something pretty soon.

[Mr. Morden]

Don't those odds imply that Trump would have a greater than 50% chance of winning the GE if nominated?

Only if you assume that his only route to the presidency is as the Republican nominee. 

[BlueSwan]

Democrats
Clinton 90.9
Sanders 7.0
O’Malley 1.5

Looks about right, although I think Clinton's chances of winning are actually above 95%

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Cruz way too high, Trump way too low. Bush and Christie should switch numbers. Carson should be at 0,1% tops (I said the same when he was #1 in the polls). Huckabee shouldn't be registrering at all. Rubio is correctly at #1, but he should NOT be at double of what Trump is at. Rubio 35% and Trump 25% seems more correct.

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Cruz is way too high again. Even if he finds some way of winning the GOP nod, which I think is highly unlikely (can't see him beating either Rubio, Trump or Christie in a two-way), he would have to rely on the democrats nominating Sanders, which is even more unlikely. Cruz beating Clinton would probably be the single biggest upset in american presidential history. Every weakness that Clinton has, Cruz has twofold. People tend to forget that EVERYBODY hates Cruz once they get to know him.

[Mr. Morden]

And it looks like Trump has already bounced back to 2nd place:

Rubio 40.3
Trump 21.7
Cruz 20.4
Bush 11.6
Christie 7.0
Ryan 1.1
Carson 1.0
Romney 1.0
Huckabee 0.8
Fiorina 0.6

[IceSpear]

Trump is ridiculously low.

Give them time. It took them months to finally realize Jeb was doomed.

[Mr. Morden]

Democrats
Clinton 90.9
Sanders 7.0
O’Malley 1.1

Republicans
Rubio 41.5
Trump 22.2
Cruz 20.8
Bush 11.6
Christie 7.0
Huckabee 1.0
Romney 1.0
Carson 0.7
Kasich 0.5
Ryan 0.5

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3119583#msg3119583

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1361930#msg1361930

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[Mr. Morden]

Big surge for Cruz:

Rubio 40.0
Cruz 25.4
Trump 21.7
Bush 11.6

[Mr. Morden]

Final pre-debate update: Cruz’s surge subsides a bit.

Up: Rubio, Trump
Down: Cruz

Democrats
Clinton 90.9
Sanders 6.8
O’Malley 1.2

Republicans
Rubio 41.5
Cruz 23.1
Trump 22.6
Bush 11.4
Christie 6.5
Romney 0.9
Santorum 0.9
Carson 0.5
Kasich 0.4
Huckabee 0.4

Four years ago today was Gingrich collapse day:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3123134#msg3123134

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[Eraserhead]

Carson is below Santorum? Ha!

[Landslide Lyndon]

Why is Rubio still first is a mystery to me.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Why is Rubio still first is a mystery to me.

The Republican establishments wet dream is Rubio but they need to wake up from that dream and realize that Trump is the most likely to win the nomination.

[Mr. Morden]

Post-debate update: Cruz “wins”, if by winning you mean the biggest gainer since before the debate.  Christie ticks up a little as well.

Up: Cruz
Down: Rubio, Trump, Bush


Democrats
Clinton 90.9
Sanders 7.0
O’Malley 1.1

Republicans
Rubio 39.1
Cruz 26.3
Trump 20.8
Bush 10.0
Christie 7.2
Romney 0.9
Carson 0.5
Huckabee 0.4
Kasich 0.4
Fiorina 0.3

Bonus content: This isn’t Betfair, but Ladbrokes is offering odds on the VP nominees for each party.  The top contenders:

Dem VP
Julian Castro 25.0
O’Malley 16.7
Kaine 11.1
Sanders 7.7
Warren 7.7
Biden 5.9
Clinton 5.9 (lol)

GOP VP
Rubio 25.0
Kasich 16.7
Carson 11.1
Ryan 7.7
Fiorina 5.9
Jindal 5.9
Portman 5.9
Romney 5.9

If you believe both Betfair's presidential nomination odds and Ladbrokes's VP nomination odds, then there's a greater than 60% chance that Rubio ends up on the ticket, one way or the other. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wonder who Cruz will select as VP?

I like the Clinton/Cruz matchup

[PresidentTRUMP]

I support Marco Rubio for president and the nomination.

But how is he still the odds on favorite to win the nomination? I don't understand these numbers there coming up with....

Shouldn't Trump be the likeliest at this point to win the nomination followed by Cruz than Rubio?

Heck Cruz has a good lead in Iowa and Trump has a good lead in NH.

Maybe im missing something?

[The Other Castro]

Not Betfair, but PredictIt now has the big three all in the 30s range.

Rubio - 36%
Cruz - 32%
Trump - 31%

[Maxwell]

Huckabee is now tied with Kasich rofl