India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec

[jaichind]

My understanding is that the vast majority of these cases are when the husband is drunk.  So this map is also a proxy map of male alcoholism.  This is why prohibition plays very well with Indian women voters.  Bihar's Nitish Kumar really cracked down on alcohol sales back in 2013 and it paid dividends for JD(U) in 2015 and 2020.  AIADMK historically has done the same in TN and also has done better with women voters.

Note that Upper Caste Hindu-heavy areas where alcohol is also frowned upon also have lower rates.

[jaichind]

I will do a even deeper dive on Gujarat candidate list but so far I am getting

a) BJP dropped a lot of sitting MLAs.  Some of them have rebelled but most likely it is under control
b) INC mostly goes with incumbents or previous candidates to try to hold on to the INC base
c) AAP list is not a joke like HP.  It does have few BJP defectors but a lot of 2nd and 3rd-tier INC leaders.  It seems AAP is looking to take down INC this election and then take on BJP in 2027.  It sort of matches the old India party growth strategy "you first run to lose, then you run to make others lose then you run to win."

[jaichind]

CSDS survey for Gujarat has

BJP        47
AAP       22
INC       21

If this is what takes place unless there is AAP-INC tactical voting it will be a BJP massive landslide.

[jaichind]

After some delays, the 2022 Delhi Municipal Corporation election is finally taking place on Dec 4th with counting on Dec 7th.

BJP won here in 2007 2012 and 2017.  AAP is determined to win this time around and the race is most likely neck-to-neck between BJP and AAP.

[jaichind]

In Gujarat, 26 out of 182 AAP candidates have serious criminal backgrounds.  This is a good sign for AAP.  Usually, these types of candidates are local kingpins who are more likely to win than those that do not have serious criminal backgrounds.  Clearly, this will hurt AAP in urban areas in terms of image but this is a net win for AAP in terms of having winnable candidates.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/elections/maldhari-mahapanchayat-appeals-to-community-to-vote-against-bjp-8283988/

"Maldhari Mahapanchayat appeals to community to vote against BJP"

Bad news for BJP in Gujarat.  The Maldhari-based Gujarat Maldhari Mahapanchayat asked members of the community to vote against the BJP.  The Maldhari is a herdsmen community and makeup 10% of Gujarat's population.

[jaichind]

Shining India survey of Gujarat.  APP takes more of the BJP than other surveys.

[jaichind]

2017 Gujarat result by community estimate



Back in the 1980s, INC dominated Gujarat by KHAM - Kshatriya(Warrior Upper caste)-Harijan(Dalit)-Adivasi(Tribals)-Muslims.  You can still see some signs of this old INC coalition in 2017 with BJP's margin of victory coming from communities outside of those blocs.

[jaichind]

In Gujarat, BJP is going all out to try to counter anti-incumbency.  AAP is also very active.  INC is fighting a very low-key campaign.   I suspect INC's thinking is that a high-pitched campaign would mean a Modi vs Rahul Gandhi battle which could only nationalize the race and produce a BJP landslide.  So instead INC is trying to let anti-incumbency do the work for them by trying to lower the impact of Modi.  The main risk INC is taking is that such an approach would mean AAP has a good chance to come in and eat up the INC vote.

[jaichind]

AAP does well in the Haryana Zila Parishad elections.   This is especially true in areas close to AAP-ruled Punjab.  To be fair the headline is somewhat misleading as AAP ran on its symbol in this election while both BJP and INC ran their candidate without their party symbol in most places.  Still a big breakthrough for AAP in Haryana.

[jaichind]

ABP-CVoter poll for Gujarat

            Seats         Vote share
BJP       138                46%
INC        32                27%
AAP        11                21%
Others     1                   6%




Signs that AAP is taking a bit of the BJP vote. The bad news for INC is this poll seems to indicate low levels of INC-AAP tactical voting with support for INC and AAP evenly split leading to BJP landslide.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/business/prannoy-roy-radhika-roy-resign-from-ndtv-board-8296945/lite/

"Prannoy Roy, wife resign from NDTV Board"

Powerful pro-BJP Adani group buys relatively anti-BJP NDTV.  Some famous anti-BJP media personalities resign for NDTV before they are likely to get the can anyway. 

[jaichind]

BJP gets 94% of all campaign contributions in Gujart

[jaichind]

https://theprint.in/india/gujarat-too-will-have-free-electricity-from-march-cm-bhagwant-mann/1242652/

"Gujarat too will have free electricity from March: CM Bhagwant Mann"

Punjab AAP CM promises free electricity in Gujarat if AAP wins.

[jaichind]

India TV poll for Gujarat

           Seats       Vote share
BJP        117            50%
INC         59            39%
AAP          4              8%
Others      2              3%


This poll project is mostly a repeat of 2017 with some INC and minor party votes going to AAP which leads BJP to gain some seats from INC.

[jaichind]

Gujarat polls are just like in Goa earlier in the year there seem to be two sets of polls.  There are those that have AAP eating a lot into the INC vote and getting 20%+ or polls that have AAP being in the single digits.

[jaichind]

Final betting odds Gujarat assembly elections

BJP : 125-139
INC : 40-50
AAP : 6-7

[jaichind]

Phase I of the Gujarat assembly elections is in progress.  Turnout as of 3 PM is 48% which seems low compared to the 2017 total turnout of around 70%. Usually, these turnout numbers get adjusted upward.  Still, most likely this means the 2017 INC surge is not showing up although this also means the marginal and mostly pro-Modi vote is not showing up either.

[jaichind]

Phase I Gujarat turnout ended up around 5% less than it was in 2017.  This gap could close by tomorrow as updated information comes in but all things equal turnout will be lower than 2017.

[jaichind]

CSDS survey of Delhi municipal elections

AAP leads BJP by 5-7.  INC is far behind.  AAP vote looks a like the INC vote from 15 years ago.

[jaichind]

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/elections/assembly-elections/gujarat/gujarat-records-63-14-pc-voter-turnout-in-first-phase-of-assembly-polls-down-from-66-75-pc-in-last-election/articleshow/95934749.cms

"Gujarat records 63.14 pc voter turnout in first phase of Assembly polls, down from 66.75 pc in last election"

[jaichind]

My current guess for Gujarat
 
                  Seat         Vote share
BJP              100             46%
INC-NCP        75             39%
AAP                 5             11%

Low turnout seems to rule out a Modi or AAP wave.   BJP wants to nationalize this election while INC wants to fight this seat by seat.  Turnout seems to indicate that the election fits INC's low-key approach.  So in the end the election might just be a re-run of 2017 with AAP eating into both sides.

[jaichind]

One theme the BJP is running on this year is UCC or Uniform Civil Code.   The main target here is that different communities (read Muslims) have different laws for issues like marriage, divorce, inheritance, etc.  This fact stems from the British Raj which different civil codes for different communities.  This concept was also incorporated into the Indian Constitution as a "best practice" which does mean that in theory state governments, with support from the federal government, can change this.

The old BJS (proto-BJP) demands from the 1950s were a) Build Ram Temple in Ayodhya b) Remove Article 370 of the Constitution giving special status for J&K and c) UCC

a) and b) are mostly done so the BJP is now going to focus on UCC.  They clearly have pushed this election this year and especially Gujarat.  Expect the BJP to push this for assembly elections next year and most likely 2024 LS as well.

[jaichind]

Looking through the Gujarat assembly candidate list I concluded that out of 182 seats, INC has 6 Muslim candidates, AAP 2, and BJP 0.  Gujarat has around 10% Muslim population.

My understanding is that even anti-BJP Hindus will be reluctant to vote for a Muslim candidate ergo no party that wants to win can afford to nominate a Muslim unless you are trying to win based on the Muslim vote.  As INC's nomination strategy shows there are around 6 seats (with a heavy Muslim population) that could be won based only on the Muslim vote.

This is a type of polarisation I would think would take place in Assam where Muslims are 35% and growing.  With only 10% Muslim this level of polarisation is surprising.   The reason of course is a history of Hindu-Muslim riots.  It is not just in 2002 but back in the early 1970s, there were Hindu-Muslim riots just as if not worse than in 2002.  Geographical proximity to Pakistan also adds to the polarization although one does not see this in Rajasthan even though it is also close to Pakistan and has around a 10% Muslim population.

In addition to the riots, the 1980s INC domination of Gujuart was partly based on the Muslim vote and that was a period when the INC did field a bunch of Muslim candidates.  Reaction to that in addition to the history of riots add up to the reason.  This trend has clearly helped BJP win and maintain control of Gujarat.  BJP cannot campaign against Muslims as that would be against election law.  What BJP/Modi have done in the past is to campaign against Pakistan which everyone involved knows is a codeword for Muslims.

[jaichind]

Delhi MCD election voting is in progress.  At 4 PM turnout is around 45%.  In 2017 final turnout was around 53.6%