Crisis in Venezuela

[Lumine]

Barring another surprise or something really unexpected this seems like another failure.

By the looks of it Guaido and Lopez never had more than a few dozen soldiers behind them and were not in control of an air base, suggesting it was a gamble to try and force the military to switch sides. How Lopez escaped house arrest remains unclear, it is claimed rogue elements within SEBIN (the intelligence service, which has been arresting and/or harassing Guaido's top supporters over the last few days) conspired to release him and that the general allegedly responsible for it has already been arrested.

Since the Operación Libertad (a series of planned protests) was set to start tomorrow and not today some rumors have suggested there was a larger coup planned with military support which Guaido had to try to start earlier than planned because his arrest by the Maduro loyalists was imminent, and subsequently those who were going to defect decided not to. This ties in with what John Bolton said, that there were negotiations with Defence Minister Padrino, the head of the Supreme Tribunal of Justice and others who had agreed to oust Maduro, something Padrino has vehemently denied (so either Padrino was going to join a coup but decided not to, or Bolton is somehow trying to drive a wedge, or well, being John Bolton).

Maduro's current whereabouts have led to some speculation due to his unusual silence since a tweet in the morning in which he stated he had "nerves of steel", it's said he remains in a special bunker monitoring the situation. Pompeo said Maduro panicked and was allegedly about to flee to Cuba on a plane but was persuaded not to by Moscow and Havana.

So yeah, quite a mess. Every day that passes and Guaido is unable to assume actual powers/authority means the opposition grows weaker - because it's obvious there won't be any foreign military intervention under the present circumstances - and the more likely it becomes the government will eventually arrest Guaido and key figures of the opposition Congress. On the other hand, sanctions seem to be crippling Maduro (which means Cuba isn't enough and he'll need Russia and China to bail him out at a significant cost) and he's clearly lost popular support, and the fact he hasn't arrested Guaido yet is a clear sign of weakness.

I have no idea what's going to happen - though my guess is Maduro will eventually arrest Guaido and use the military to remain in power at any cost -, but this can't go on much longer without an actual resolution.

[Lumine]

Maduro proposing early elections
This could be the end to the Opposition Roundtable. Maybe next time they’ll be more pragmatic enough to come to the negotiation table, instead of stir **** up with a failed coup and then b*** about it on Twitter, either in Southern Florida or uptown Caracas.

Not to defend the lack of competence of the Opposition, but what exactly is to be achieved at the negotiation table with Maduro? They have participated in different talks in the past and the answer from Maduro was pretty much always the same, which is to outright refuse any sort of negotiated solution beyond offering "elections" which are bound to be rigged and/or made unwinnable by the Opposition. His idea of a negotiated compromise was that remarkably fair and transparent Presidential election last year.

That the Opposition will have to negotiate in a more effective manner with Chavistas or government-aligned forces if it aspires to ever take part in a transition (though that opportunity seems to have gone out the window with the utter mess of a few days ago) is certainly clear, but it seems remarkably pointless to enter into talks again and again with Maduro so he can stall and win time.