Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread

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It'll be interesting to see what happens now that things are slowing down for a while. It looks as though Romney's peaks are getting more prolonged and he's bottoming out higher. Since Gingrich doesn't seem to want to get out anytime soon, Santorum's gonna have a hard time staying over Romney by enough to make a run for it. Romney's peaks come when there's indecision among the conservatives, which there will probably be a significant amount of as long as Gingrich takes up around 15%. If he stays there, Romney stays around 35% like he has been, and Paul stays around 10% (though it's not like his voters would go to anyone else anyway), that doesn't leave much room for Santorum to make much of a dent in Romney's lead. Without the momentum of more contests over the course of April, he's screwed. I can't imagine how Romney could lose at this point. Best case for Santorum is that if Romney doesn't get 50% Gingrich holds all the cards in a way, which is a scary thought. I'd almost rather Romney get the 50% of delegates than have that moron take charge of anything on any level.

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Also today's numbers already put a giant damper on Santorum...

Romney - 37% (+3)
Santorum - 27% (-3)
Gingrich - 13% (nc)
Paul - 10% (nc)

Gallup's saying Gingrich's support splits 40% to Romney and 39% to Santorum.

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Romney - 38% (+1)
Santorum - 27% (nc)
Gingrich - 14% (+1)
Paul - 9% (-1)

That makes for Romney up 6% from about a week ago, Santorum stagnant, and Paul and Gingrich deflated by 2-3%. 38% is also Romney's peak.

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In my boredom, I also converted the numbers into a graph with our color scheme to see what's happening a little better.

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In retrospect, I find it quite amusing that Perry was having a pretty sustained surge in the days leading up to his withdrawal from the race.

Yeah, I thought that was amusing, too.

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Romney hits a milestone!

Romney - 40% (+2)
Santorum - 26% (-1)
Gingrich - 14% (nc)
Paul - 8% (-1)

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I think it contains the beginnings of the Etch-a-Sketch fiasco. The poll dates were the 18th-22nd and I believe that happened on the 21st? Tomorrow will probably show a bigger effect if there is one.

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Since the graph went over so well, here's an updated one of Romney vs. the anti-Romneys. I excluded Paul and Huntsman since neither ever challenged Romney, but Santorum, Gingrich, Perry, and Bachmann are included. Romney has led or tied them for a total of seven days throughout the polling process and has peaked today on his seventh day of leading or a tie at a 40-40 tie.



Also interesting is that the polled candidates combined for a new high of 88% in the last two days. They've bottomed out near 75% and averaged around 80% the entire time, dipping when the leading anti-Romney does. EXCEPT Santorum's plunge after his late February surge. I'm thinking that was the last of the surges considering the significantly lower amount of indecision in the polls...well, Gallup's at least. It's hard to keep myself from reading too much into one pollster's data when it's so extensive...and lonely haha

There also seems to be a stronger relationship between Romney's numbers and Gingrich's than Santorum's. I'll look into that more tomorrow.

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Wow, nice...that's a pretty strong place for Romney to be. I think the 91% decided makes all the difference, even considering Louisiana. The post-LA polls will be pretty interesting though and probably very telling.

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It's now been over a month since Santorum last held the lead.

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Gingrich is in 4th!

Romney - 39% (nc)
Santorum - 28% (nc)
Paul - 11% (nc)
Gingrich - 10% (-1)

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In fact, Gingrich is full-on collapsing, down from 17% about two weeks ago.

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Romney's up 7% on Santorum+Gingrich, his highest yet. He reached a 5% lead in January for one day. The anti-Romneys have only been below 37% (they are now at 36%) once since before Gingrich's second surge.

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What the...

Romney - 39% (-1)
Santorum - 26% (+1)
Paul - 12% (nc)
Gingrich - 10% (-1)