ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet

[Pericles]

Golden is a good candidate who won narrowly against harsh partisan headwinds, Maine statewide has much more friendly partisan headwinds for Golden, so he'd win comfortably against a Generic Republican. As Collins is not a Generic Republican but a good candidate herself the race would be close but definitely winnable for Golden.

[Pericles]

It's possible the Kavanaugh vote ends up benefiting her politically-she may not have been able to be renominated if she had voted against and been responsible for stopping both Obamacare repeal and the Kavanaugh nomination, and she may have enough of a positive image with moderates and Maine may be close enough to a swing state to make the damage she takes with the general electorate for the Kavanaugh vote survivable. I hope that she is proven wrong here, but Collins probably only needs to outrun Trump by a few points to win.

[Pericles]

It's possible the Kavanaugh vote ends up benefiting her politically-she may not have been able to be renominated if she had voted against and been responsible for stopping both Obamacare repeal and the Kavanaugh nomination, and she may have enough of a positive image with moderates and Maine may be close enough to a swing state to make the damage she takes with the general electorate for the Kavanaugh vote survivable. I hope that she is proven wrong here, but Collins probably only needs to outrun Trump by a few points to win.

She was a safe bet to win renomination regardless of how she voted on Kavanaugh. If there was any appetite among Maine Republicans to replace her, they would have done so in 2014. The Tea Party was very much already around and strong by then.

Nobody would have ever cared negatively about it had she voted against Kavanaugh unless the nomination failed and she kept on voting against not just Kavanaugh but also all other nominees Trump put up afterwards as well, and only if Kavanaugh ended up failing as a result as well. Contrarily, she probably could have managed to erase the fall she took to her formerly centrist reputation from when she voted for the Tax Bill in 2017 if she voted against Kavanaugh, but by voting for Kavanaugh, she instead dug the hole even deeper.

Thing is, her voting against Kavanaugh would have stopped him from being confirmed (as Manchin waited until she decided to go for Kavanaugh so would have voted with her against Kavanaugh). Brraking the party line on two key votes in one term, both votes decisive, would have left her severely vulnerable to a primary challenge.

[Pericles]

Can Collins still drop out to 'spend time with her family'? Maybe she should be seeking a way out from a humiliating defeat.

[Pericles]

How do you all think people are just going to forget her vote to confirm Kavanaugh and her vote to acquit Trump just because she might vote no on a nominee where her vote is not needed at all???

Good point. I doubt the voters of Maine are as dumb as the WV's that still voted for Diamond Joe.

I'm not sure what you're saying here. Manchin did vote for Kavanaugh (he did decide right after Collins did, so probably wouldn't have been the deciding vote for him).

[Pericles]

Gideon blatantly lying like this is distasteful, I'd rather she didn't. But Collins and the Republicans totally deserve it. Hopefully Maine Senate isn't super close so this lie doesn't prove decisive.

[Pericles]

Gideon blatantly lying like this is distasteful, I'd rather she didn't. But Collins and the Republicans totally deserve it. Hopefully Maine Senate isn't super close so this lie doesn't prove decisive.

She did not lie.

Oh I misread the tweet. Yeah, Gideon's tweet is fine and a good move.