German Elections & Politics

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Any clue what party this woman will voted (or already have voted) for?

I guess she's a Conservative. So, CSU.

I was asking because most Spätaussiedler vote AfD, and she always refused to answer questions about her political views.

[President Johnson]

Yesterday I discussed with my fellow Social Democrats the possibility that we may end up with a new election in spring 2018, if no coalition agreement can be reached. Jamaica is anything but certain, and the SPD members won't vote for a grand coalition again. It may not be representative, but all fellows I know from my party said they would vote against another grand coalition no matter what. Including those who voted in favor four years ago (like myself).

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I wonder what party Heidi Klum votes for...

[Oryxslayer]

Yesterday I discussed with my fellow Social Democrats the possibility that we may end up with a new election in spring 2018, if no coalition agreement can be reached. Jamaica is anything but certain, and the SPD members won't vote for a grand coalition again. It may not be representative, but all fellows I know from my party said they would vote against another grand coalition no matter what. Including those who voted in favor four years ago (like myself).

I hate to hop in unannounced, but I have been following the thread and every post for a few months now, so when I say that this was my thought since the very beginning, I really mean it. The SPD base doesn't want another Grand Coalition, they despise Merkel as shown by a previous poll more then every other Non-AFD party. I also seem to remember from a couple of months ago (after schultzmentum was dead) that he had talked about not wanting another Grand Coalition, or if it was going to happen, demanding far more then in 2013.

My views since Schultz become leader is that we were heading for Black/Yellow, and now they are that we are heading for Jamaica. Merkel will pull the greens and FDP in for talks, and predictably they will break down over some issue between the CSU and the Greens. Then Merkel will go to Schultz, and both leaders will understand that neither quite want another grand coalition. Schultz will end up appeasing the base by breaking off talks, and then Merkel will return to Jamaica armed with the "Do it in the name of Stability" argument.

Or perhaps Jamaica will work on the first pass. Either way, thats the end destination.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I wonder what party Heidi Klum votes for...

Democrats

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I wonder what party Heidi Klum votes for...

Democrats

So you're saying she would probably vote for Merkel and the CDU?

[mgop]

grand coalition is far more realistic than 'jamaica' coalition. first of all cdu and spd already worked, then it would need far less time to make that coalition and merkel sure does not want to lose several months in talks with greens and fdp, trying to bridge their differences, gov with two parties will be far more stable then that of 3 or 4. merkel who said that this will be her last term certanly don't want to risk fall of gov which would be very likely if she goes with frankenstein aka 'jamaica' coalition.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I wonder what party Heidi Klum votes for...

Democrats

So you're saying she would probably vote for Merkel and the CDU?

Definitely.
I just read that she kept her German citizenship, so she probably supports Hillary and Merkel.
I wonder if she also supports the Democrats if Bernie or Liz are the Democratic nominees and if Trump didn't run.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

This woman, the former mattress of the Rammstein singer and now stopgap of Gewn Stefanie's former husband, has also endorsed Merkel, because she "never causes scandal"...

[Beezer]

grand coalition is far more realistic than 'jamaica' coalition. first of all cdu and spd already worked, then it would need far less time to make that coalition and merkel sure does not want to lose several months in talks with greens and fdp, trying to bridge their differences, gov with two parties will be far more stable then that of 3 or 4. merkel who said that this will be her last term certanly don't want to risk fall of gov which would be very likely if she goes with frankenstein aka 'jamaica' coalition.

Yeah but would a 21% SPD really like another stint in government with the prospect of coming in third in 2021?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I found an artile on cnn.com about gay men supporting the AfD:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[mvd10]

What's the AfD's stance on economic issues? Are they still really right-wing on economic issues like a couple of years ago or did they moderate to attract low income blue-collar workers or unemployed voters?

[Bumaye]

What's the AfD's stance on economic issues? Are they still really right-wing on economic issues like a couple of years ago or did they moderate to attract low income blue-collar workers or unemployed voters?

 
   
Economically somewhere around the FDP but with much bigger social security cuts.

[President Johnson]

grand coalition is far more realistic than 'jamaica' coalition. first of all cdu and spd already worked, then it would need far less time to make that coalition and merkel sure does not want to lose several months in talks with greens and fdp, trying to bridge their differences, gov with two parties will be far more stable then that of 3 or 4. merkel who said that this will be her last term certanly don't want to risk fall of gov which would be very likely if she goes with frankenstein aka 'jamaica' coalition.

My fellow SPD members won't vote for another grand coalition. ZERO chance.

[mvd10]

A question for Johnson:
Wouldn't a Jamaica coalition be closer to you ideologically than your own SPD ?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

What's the AfD's stance on economic issues? Are they still really right-wing on economic issues like a couple of years ago or did they moderate to attract low income blue-collar workers or unemployed voters?

 
   
Economically somewhere around the FDP but with much bigger social security cuts.

But - in contrast to the FDP - the AfD supports the minimum wage, they want to raise the welfare benefits and they are against university tuitions.

[President Johnson]

A question for Johnson:
Wouldn't a Jamaica coalition be closer to you ideologically than your own SPD ?

No, I've never been a fan of the Greens. Let alone the CDU, which is, and Merkel in particular, without a vision. All major reforms of the past years are SPD works. Greens and CDU governing in my state (Baden-Württemberg) and are grossly incompetent; like eliminating Electronic Date Processing lessons in school, their infrastructure policy is a disaster. As somebody from the Schröder-wing of the party, I'd actually prefer a SPD/FDP coalition. True, I'm often at odds with the party's left wing over economic and fiscal policy as well as political correctness, though the SPD in my county is largely of the pragmatic third-way wing. Our Youth Organization has a good relationship with the FDP Youth (Green Youth wing is de facto dead here).

Nevertheless, I'm in favor of most SPD policies like free eduction from kindergarten to university, more funds for infrastructure and housing (very important, housing market is a huge problem because prices are through the roof), higher taxes on the wealthy, strengthening the EU, tougher handling of the diesel scandal, among others.

[President Johnson]

What's the AfD's stance on economic issues? Are they still really right-wing on economic issues like a couple of years ago or did they moderate to attract low income blue-collar workers or unemployed voters?

 
   
Economically somewhere around the FDP but with much bigger social security cuts.

But - in contrast to the FDP - the AfD supports the minimum wage, they want to raise the welfare benefits and they are against university tuitions.

Their two wings are at odds over most econmic policies including Social Security. Some are economically liberal, others more protectionist etc. Some AfD members want to privatize unemployment insurance.

[Middle-aged Europe]

What's the AfD's stance on economic issues? Are they still really right-wing on economic issues like a couple of years ago or did they moderate to attract low income blue-collar workers or unemployed voters?

 
   
Economically somewhere around the FDP but with much bigger social security cuts.

But - in contrast to the FDP - the AfD supports the minimum wage, they want to raise the welfare benefits and they are against university tuitions.

Their two wings are at odds over most econmic policies including Social Security. Some are economically liberal, others more protectionist etc. Some AfD members want to privatize unemployment insurance.

There was a TV debate this Thursday where AfD lead candidate Alexander Gauland flat-out admitted that his party doesn't really have a position on pensions because the two wings in his party hold diametrically opposed views on the issue. The AfD is solely held together by their opposition to immigration, Angela Merkel, "political correctness", and the "mainstream media". If they ever had to to govern, they'd probably split into two distinct political parties very quickly... a more "libertarian" one, and a more economically populist one.

[President Johnson]

What's the AfD's stance on economic issues? Are they still really right-wing on economic issues like a couple of years ago or did they moderate to attract low income blue-collar workers or unemployed voters?

 
   
Economically somewhere around the FDP but with much bigger social security cuts.

But - in contrast to the FDP - the AfD supports the minimum wage, they want to raise the welfare benefits and they are against university tuitions.

Their two wings are at odds over most econmic policies including Social Security. Some are economically liberal, others more protectionist etc. Some AfD members want to privatize unemployment insurance.

There was a TV debate this Thursday where AfD lead candidate Alexander Gauland flat-out admitted that his party doesn't really have a position on pensions because the two wings in his party hold diametrically opposed views on the issue. The AfD is solely held together by their opposition to immigration, Angela Merkel, "political correctness", and the "mainstream media". If they ever had to to govern, they'd probably split into two distinct political parties very quickly... a more "libertarian" one, and a more economically populist one.

Correct, I've seen it. There is not much substance beyond the anti-immigration and anti-establishment rhetoric. Therefore I side with Christian Lindner, who said during the debate, that he prefers to confront the AfD with a broad range of questions from all political topics instead of only yelling that they're nazis.

Btw, AfD also denies climate change. So much for the "common sense" party.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

2 Questions:

1.) Who will become Norbert Lammert's successor as President of the Bundestag? I have a feeling that Uschi will occupy that office...

2) What happens if the Greens won't take the 5% hurdle (which some pundits don't rule out)? Another grand coalition? Or even a Bahamas coalition?

[mvd10]

1. Schäuble maybe? The SPD should claim the finance ministry in a grand coalition (they might even claim both the finance and foreign ministry) and in a Jamaica coalition FDP probably will claim the finance ministry (and the Greens could get the foreign ministry). I can't see Schäuble at a lesser ministry like Defence or Economic Affairs so President of the Bundestag is the next best thing left.

2. It's very possible that CDU/CSU-FDP has a majority in that case. Otherwise grand coalition I guess? Or perhaps new elections, but I don't think the Germans would appreciate that.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

1. Schäuble maybe? The SPD should claim the finance ministry in a grand coalition (they might even claim both the finance and foreign ministry) and in a Jamaica coalition FDP probably will claim the finance ministry (and the Greens could get the foreign ministry). I can't see Schäuble at a lesser ministry like Defence or Economic Affairs so President of the Bundestag is the next best thing left.

2. It's very possible that CDU/CSU-FDP has a majority in that case. Otherwise grand coalition I guess? Or perhaps new elections, but I don't think the Germans would appreciate that.

1.) It's possible. Did you know that the Bundestag changed its parliamentary law? We have a parliamentary post called Alterspräsident ("president by seniority"); he is used to be the oldest member of the Bundestag and presides until the new speaker takes up office. In this and the last legislative period, Christian Democrat Heinz Riesenhuber (81), who will have resigned after this election, held this office.
From sheer fear of Alexander Gauland becoming the Alterspräsident in the next legislative session, the Bundestag changed the rules and will make the longest member of parliament occupy this office, i.e. presumably Schäuble.

2.) I think SPD+Linke+AfD would still have more seats than CDU+CSU+FDP.

[DavidB.]

There was a TV debate this Thursday where AfD lead candidate Alexander Gauland flat-out admitted that his party doesn't really have a position on pensions because the two wings in his party hold diametrically opposed views on the issue. The AfD is solely held together by their opposition to immigration, Angela Merkel, "political correctness", and the "mainstream media". If they ever had to to govern, they'd probably split into two distinct political parties very quickly... a more "libertarian" one, and a more economically populist one.

As if this matters. They are not going to govern, and everybody knows it.

[mvd10]

1. Schäuble maybe? The SPD should claim the finance ministry in a grand coalition (they might even claim both the finance and foreign ministry) and in a Jamaica coalition FDP probably will claim the finance ministry (and the Greens could get the foreign ministry). I can't see Schäuble at a lesser ministry like Defence or Economic Affairs so President of the Bundestag is the next best thing left.

2. It's very possible that CDU/CSU-FDP has a majority in that case. Otherwise grand coalition I guess? Or perhaps new elections, but I don't think the Germans would appreciate that.

1.) It's possible. Did you know that the Bundestag changed its parliamentary law? We have a parliamentary post called Alterspräsident ("president by seniority"); he is used to be the oldest member of the Bundestag and presides until the new speaker takes up office. In this and the last legislative period, Christian Democrat Heinz Riesenhuber (81), who will have resigned after this election, held this office.
From sheer fear of Alexander Gauland becoming the Alterspräsident in the next legislative session, the Bundestag changed the rules and will make the longest member of parliament occupy this office, i.e. presumably Schäuble.

2.) I think SPD+Linke+AfD would still have more seats than CDU+CSU+FDP.

If you use the Bloomberg polling average and move 2.6% from the Greens to SPD-AfD-Linke you have CDU/CSU-FDP at 44.8% and SPD-AfD-Linke at 45.4%. So it would be 50/50. Probably Merkel's nightmare scenario since she probably doesn't really like the FDP and their majority would be extremely small, but she would be forced to do it anyway.