Probability of Democrats re-taking the House / retaining the Senate

[Mr.Phips]

Democrats just are not doing enough to retake the House.  My guess is that it ends up around 230-205 in favor of the GOP.

I actually think that Democrats will do better than almost anybody expects in the Senate, actually staying even.  Democrats pick up Maine, Nevada, and Massachussetts, while Republicans pick up North Dakota, Nebraska, and Wisconsin. 

Allen is not going to win in Virginia.  Obama voters will not vote for somebody who stuffed dead dear in the mailboxes of people like Obama. 

McMahon will not win Connecticut.  Obama's lead will be too big there for her to overcome.

Scott Brown is only polling a point or two ahead of Warren and is well under 50% in a state that Obama is going to carry by twenty points.  I expect Warren will win by a surprisingly large 53%-47% margin. 


Nevada is a tough call, but this is a state where Democrats always seem to underpoll.  This is a state that is only getting tougher for Republicans and the partisan GOP House's "ethics" investigation into Berkely can be seen right through.  I think Berkely pulls off a narrow win in what will be the closest Senate race on election night. 

The only two "tossups" that Democrats will lose are North Dakota and Wisconsin.  These Senate races almost always break in favor of one party and will do so again.

Check back and two months to see how I did. 

[Mr.Phips]

You did not mention Montana?

I think Tester wins by about 10,000 votes with help from the libertarian candidate.  Obama getting about 46% there will help him and Tester will get around 49% with Rehberg getting about 47%.