Redistricting 2020, doomed incumbents

[Libertas Vel Mors]

I hope NY democrats do everything they can to get rid of some of the NY pro-Trump flamethrowers like Stefanik and Zeldin.  I can't imagine their nonsense is in line with moderate NY voters.

I feel like Zeldin will succumb to trends eventually (if they continue their current course). Long Island is only getting bluer.

What? 2016 was the first time LI went red as a whole since 1988, it's trending R

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Lucy McBath, Kendra Horn,

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Lucy McBath, Kendra Horn,

The Georgia GOP would be opening themselves up for a dummymander if they try to strip McBath's seat and GA-07. They will have to leave at least one D northern Atlanta suburban seat, which McBath would likely run for.

No they don't, as I and others have demonstrated dozens of times. You can easily draw 11 Trump 57%+, 15+ point margin seats, let alone a mere 10 (due to the VRA in South Georgia)

[Libertas Vel Mors]

For instance, here's a VRA compliant 10-4 map I drew a couple days ago. Trump carried every seat by at least 13 points and won at least 55% of the vote in each, which was basically the max 2018 flip threshold. https://imgur.com/a/Do9el9i

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Trump carried the new “McBath” seat under this map by 19 points.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

I feel like the CA commission is going to make a South OC - Newport Beach seat, so probably someone getting shifted a bit there. No kills though probably. Any thoughts on that?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Interesting question is Utah with the commission which the legislature can ignore but what if the governor feels the need to have good government and refuses a gerrymander with some moderates in the legislature?

Hmmm... Huntsman in particular seems unlikely to sign a commission override bill if he is the next governor, but it may not matter.  Republicans have nearly 80% of the seats in both chambers (and only 1 seat flipped in each last year), so they can lose a lot of votes and still do a veto override. 

The optics of repealing the commission outright would be really, really bad.  I don't think that is what will happen.  It's more likely that they edit the commission's criteria/procedure in a way that would lead to a more Republican-leaning map.  For example, removing the COI criterion, or removing the  municipality (SLC) splitting provision but keeping the minimal county splits one.   

What would the partisan numbers be on a SLC district that only included the most Republican parts of the county?

Something like R+10 (DRA doesn't have Presidential 2016 numbers)

[Libertas Vel Mors]

I'm going to cover most of these when we hit their turn on the state  megathread but here  my hotlist. I'm not going to count anyone who is sitting in a opposing seat like Brindisi since getting redistricting from red to red or blue to blue doesn't count as getting drawn out. Right now those with near-guaranteed ticking timers are:

- Jim Cooper (TN05) is the most vulnerable incumbent in Congress to the pen. R's didn't crack him back in 2010 cause they feared a dixiecrat revival...which never came. I did the  math on a personal map and even with Bresden's numbers there are ways that a Quad-cut gets all seats to Blackburn+10. A 5-way cut is also possible if nobody want too much of Nashville, while not compromising the protection for the Knoxville seats. Something similar would be happening in KY03 if Beshear didn't get elected last week, and can court-block the most outrageous proposals.

- Someones going down in VA, likely Rob Whitman (VA01) if dems have the cahones.

- One of the Dem's from the north jersey suburbs. There needs to be a second R seat up there to make everyone else safe, if NJ-07 flips in 2020 then the decision process gets easier. If some gets the ax congressionally they get a free ticket statewide.

- John Katko (NY24) if he survives 2020. He's facing Brindisi if Brindisi survives because NY22 is a guaranteed reapportionment, and Syracuse likely gets custody of Ithaca.

- IN01 (Open) if the GOP is feeling cocky. Similarly, MO05 (Emmanuel Cleaver). Both might survive because their remote location on the  map demands a major reshuffling of district lines. If/When MO05 gets cut it probably triggers ballot petitions for fair districts, and starts a process similar to what we saw in FL in 2016.

-IL12/13 are getting merged and one redistributed, but the reps may survive by getting stuck in other seats and having to primary other GOP'ers.

-Alex Mooney (WV02) is dead weight, always underpreforming his baseline massively. He's the easy GOP cut, especially now that WV03 seems a lock for the future.

- Someone loses the DvD primary in RI, unless they get to go statewide.

-AL02 (Open).

- Sanford Bishop (GA02) if the GOP increases AA power overall using ATL, even while making the 2nd red. They also need cleaver lawyers, because its the VRA.

-Inside California, someone from LA is losing their seat to redistribution to the OC/SD region. The new seat still will be blue though because of which areas are growing.

Someones losing their seat in MN, MI, PA, Long Island, and OH because reapportionment. But which seat is cut is a open question. Ohio is general is a black box this cycle.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/345f09d8-6559-4bf9-8705-3b570ddc4546
a good georgia map. 4 aa districts.

No, dumb and illegal map. You won't be able to get away with killing off the black belt district, the best scenario is to have 3 AA Atlanta districts, 1 AA Black Belt district, and 10 Safe R districts elsewhere.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Why did this become a Minnesota redistricting thread?