Redistricting 2020, doomed incumbents

[lfromnj]

Lets just make a list of possible incumbents that will get gerrymandered out in 2022
Here's the ones I can think of
TN5th(Inb4 someone says Nashville Bredesen 70% dummymander. Currently Nashville has a +20 clinton District and its surrounded by 3 40-50% Trump districts. Do the math)
Even if somehow the GOP does manage to lose one Nasvhille seat its still a 7-2. Losing 2 would take a wave of such enermous proportions the GOP would have been screwed as before.

Missouri 5th Again its surrounded by 2 Trump +30 and +35 districts use a bit of another district to make 2 districts around Trump +20 and the Missouri 5th around Trump +10-15 and trending R. Im gonna enjoy Cleaver getting screwed in a gerrymander and laugh so much (Note I dislike partisan gerrymanders but Cleaver kinda deserves this )

In 5th or IN 1st incumbents(unknown for IN 1st) I suspect one of them would get gerrymandered out, its quite possible for a 9-0 map in Indiana but its also a tad bit risky(even then I doubt any dummymander would get the D's more than 2 seats out of 9)  so the GOP has 3 options here.
Pack IN 7th by moving southern Marion to Northern Marion which is much more D than southern Marion by now. This protects the 5th district. Then crack the 1st. Oryxslayer said no GOP rep would want Gary but they could just give it to the New rep by cracking the 1st two ways. The surrounding area is a tad bit less GOP but IN 1st is only clinton +13. Again a dummymander would probably only result in 7-2 at worst. The other option is to the pack the 1st district by placing it on the 4 shore counties which Obama won in 2012 and where the cities are still D leaning. The final option would be to pack the 1st and the 7th for a Titanium D district. If I was the GOP I would probably pack the 7th and send the 1st packing .

VA 1st- Yeah if the VA d's have any brains they screw over Rob whitman.  NOVA is clearly more than blue as it has a C+10,C+40 and C+53 district in the area compared to Whitmanns +10 Trump district. I guess Wexton might demand a few points more for her district to around Clinton +15 but even then there is still enough of NOVA left for an easy double digit Clinton district.
VA5th-Riggleman probably should be safe and packed in 2020 as he will probably lose Albemarle  to VA 7th but if VA 5th keeps it he might go bye bye in a super aggressive VA D map.


Alabama?- I guess whoever takes AL 2nd?

Ohio-looks likely but not impossible that Steve Chabot is screwed in Cincinatti. It is possible that he gets a district similar to the current one that still follows the rules but im not sure.
On the flip side Tim Ryan might hurt a lot as his district could go from an Obama +27 to Clinton +7 to something around obama +15 to Trump +10.,Marcy Kaptur could also get a lot stronger GOP district around clinton +3 or 4 as the snake on the lake will be gone but the area is now much more Republican than before. Balderson could be in trouble a bit but I think the GOP can keep him Safe without too much outrage.

Illinois- Gonna be a mess in downstate as D's would be stupid to not take the free mixed Il 12th/13th for around a Clinton +8 district.
Possibly screwed temporarily
A super aggressive TX GOP and GA GOP gerrymander Mcbath and Fletcher. This is possible but also quite a bit risky. They might just sink them( or to be specific with Fletcher give her a district for a primary that a white D can't win)

Any others?

[lfromnj]

Yeah, the INGOP is much more likely to create 2 D vote sink seats than to carve up one of the seats. Otherwise, I mostly agree with the list given by Oryxslayer.

Though IN-05 is probably going to be pushed to the right somehow, and maybe also IN-02.

Its super easy to push IN 5 to the right, just move IN 7th north lol. Again its perfectly possible for a relatively clean 8-1 map. https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/11/11/indiana-8-1-2022-map/
maybe  1 district could flip in a wave year but even then its still back to a 7-2. If it goes back to a 6-3 the GOP was completely screwed that year lol. I will cal the Indiana GOP idiots if they don't draw an 8-1 when a 9-0 is completely possible. (I am just speaking from an electoral perspective just like I would call the VA D's idiots if they dont draw a 4th NOVA seat.)

[lfromnj]

If Horn survives in 2020 and there's still no commission the OKC seat is almost certainly getting destroyed.

How did I forget her

Also Cunningham too
Maybe Utah 4th too its possible to perfectly crack it.

[lfromnj]

If a Dem is in a seriously red seat and going to become a seriously red seat (or GOP, blue to blue), like Horn or Cunningham, it isn't being drawn out. It's reclamation. There are not many of these this time, no more Dixiecrats or Rockefellers. They therefore do not count as doomed incumbents, since their occurrence originally was an abnormality, not when compared to TN05 and the long list of seats that suffered similar fates in 2010.

I think SC 1 is already maxed out for the GOP (6-1 in a +10 and +14 state that has some natural vote sinks wasn't gonna work out.) It is possible to probably gerrymander it out but it would require some super ugly lines as its currently only bordering the D vote sink district.)

Ok 5 could easily be mandered out.

[lfromnj]

Yeah, the INGOP is much more likely to create 2 D vote sink seats than to carve up one of the seats. Otherwise, I mostly agree with the list given by Oryxslayer.

Though IN-05 is probably going to be pushed to the right somehow, and maybe also IN-02.

Its super easy to push IN 5 to the right, just move IN 7th north lol. Again its perfectly possible for a relatively clean 8-1 map. https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/11/11/indiana-8-1-2022-map/
maybe  1 district could flip in a wave year but even then its still back to a 7-2. If it goes back to a 6-3 the GOP was completely screwed that year lol. I will cal the Indiana GOP idiots if they don't draw an 8-1 when a 9-0 is completely possible. (I am just speaking from an electoral perspective just like I would call the VA D's idiots if they dont draw a 4th NOVA seat.)

That 1st district is a disaster and would never stand up to scrutiny.

One thing Rokita did setting up the teens districts and I really like is he kind of based districts around where the TV stations were based at. For example, in the 3rd, the counties are all in the Fort Wayne media market, so you only have to buy TV ads in the Fort Wayne media market. Your 1st district, to touch the whole district you'd have to buy ad time in Chicago, Lafayette, and Indianapolis. That's brutal unless you're the richest candidate.

Also, your 3rd is too small. You've added Elkhart County to offset removing Whitley, Huntington, Adams, Wells, Jay, and parts of Kosciusko and Blackford. Can't think that's enough people.

1, 4, and 5 on that map are all horrendous.

5 actually is a pretty good district. It could be cleaned up even imo but it gives the district a good COI. It's a gerrymander of course but once northern marion is taken any district in the region is safe r.

[lfromnj]

AL: Someone who moves up to run statewide can give up their seat.
CA: If they lose a seat Nunes may be forced to run against Cox while McCarthy gets the rest of the seat.
IL: Districts 12 and 13 get merged into one Metro East district with the remnants being distributed amongst 15 and 18.
MI: Dingell retires.
MN: Michelle Fischbach if she wins will probably lose her seat to the other three GOP reps.
NJ: The 7th becomes an R vote sink while Malinowski is moved to the 12th.
NY: Katko probably gets screwed over by taking in Ithaca, while the 27th gets spliced up between Reed, Modell’s, and Higgins.
OH: Chabot and Wenstrup will get stuck with a Cincinnati district and Stivers will have to run in Columbus. Tim Ryan will also be in much redder territory. The 9th gets cut up IMO, the Toledo portions becoming part of the 5th and the Cleveland portions becoming the new 9th and merging with the old 16th.
PA: Glenn Thompson gets the 15th split between the 12th and 16th.
TN: Jim Cooper in a 4 way split.
VA: Denver Riggleman.

Why would Riggleman be cut up?
In most scenarios his district should be losing Charlottesville which moves him from Safe R to Titanium R. The VA d's could draw a shaky 9-2 map but its closer to like 6 Safe D, 2 Likely D and 1 Tilt D which would be riggleman. He would still have a fighting chance in almost any scenario.

[lfromnj]

I hope NY democrats do everything they can to get rid of some of the NY pro-Trump flamethrowers like Stefanik and Zeldin.  I can't imagine their nonsense is in line with moderate NY voters.

I feel like Zeldin will succumb to trends eventually (if they continue their current course). Long Island is only getting bluer.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York%27s_1st_congressional_district#Recent_election_results_in_statewide_races

Press X to doubt

[lfromnj]

PA: Anything north/west of SEPA and the Lancaster/York/Dauphin region is up for grabs. My take is PA09, but could be 15, could be 12, who knows.

Pennsylvania should be pretty interesting. I think it's a fairly safe assumption the the current map will be the baseline for the next decade considering very likely divided government and the PA Supreme Court with a Democratic majority (and very likely to maintain precedent). My first thought looking at the current map would've been PA-12, but kind of mentally re-configuring the map sort of merges it with PA-09 (with the surrounding districts all taking is some new territory from the two).

The problem for Democrats in PA is that by eliminating an R seat (which pretty much has to happen considering population trends and the geography of the state), the non-SEPA incumbents will get tougher seats. PA-18 would have to expand even if PA stayed at 18, likely forcing PA-17 to get a lot more of Butler County. PA-08 probably moves a couple notches rightward. PA-16 moving eastward takes it off the table for Democrats if it was ever really there. PA-01 is probably the only competitive seat in the state to move leftward, probably a couple points at the expense of PA-04. I admit I haven't tried to draw the state with 17 districts yet because of intrastate population trends, just looking over it in my mind.


Two other points:
-OH: I'm only interested in the new constraints on how lines can be drawn since I think that's all that will be relevant. I expect Republicans to ram through their own 4-year plan. However, the constraints are very relevant as to how far they can go. Doesn't the language of the new amendment basically doom Chabot? I'm not sure what they could conceivably do to Hamilton County, but at minimum, Cincinnati cannot be split. I also want to note that somehow Democrats picked up 2 seats on the OH Supreme Court. If they do that again, they could get a majority on the court and the redistricting amendment gives the OH Supreme Court exclusive original jurisdiction on the matter.

-MD: I'm surprised no one's mentioned Maryland as a possibility as I think Democrats could go for an 8-0 map. Hogan may be the governor, but Democrats far exceed the 3/5 supermajority necessary to override if necessary. The map is unnecessarily hideous in part because Dutch Ruppersberger wants two distant military installations in his district. I'm not sure why MD-03 is such a monstrosity. The balance between partisan allegiance and parochial interests will probably determine the fate of MD-01 (i.e. Andy Harris).

Cincinatti can't be split but Hamilton can, Take Cincinnati and immediately  move east for Ohio 1st and use the rest of Hamilton + north for the OH 2. Its possible Chabot can be saved although unlikely that they do this out of fear for a stronger redistricting amendment.

[lfromnj]

Also Illinois Supreme court has a small chance of flipping. Theres two seats up in 2020. Illinois supreme court works with 7 seats total with 3 going to one district which is Cook and 4 more districts for the rest of the state. The cook district is Titanium D of course.
District 5 is southern IL and +30 Trump which is Titanium R, District 4 is also Safe R at +19 Trump with it covering Central Il.
https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1082390573665972225
But these are the remaining districts. District 2 and 3 are more competetive. District 2 is obama clinton Pritzker but because of the suburbs it was only narrowly obama and Pritzker although Clinton won it by 9. However it has a GOP incumbent currently for its district.
District 4 is Obama Trump at +3 obama and +5 Trump. It includes Will county which is suburban but isn't really moving left unlike Kane,Dupage, or Lake.
A D incumbent holds this seat. So if the GOP somehow holds onto district 2 while flipping 3 they could get a majority in IL. Also both district 2 and 3s incumbents could retire. The important thing to note about district 3 is that even if its obama trump its not really ancestrally D.

[lfromnj]

Interesting question is Utah with the commission which the legislature can ignore but what if the governor feels the need to have good government and refuses a gerrymander with some moderates in the legislature?

[lfromnj]

Interesting question is Utah with the commission which the legislature can ignore but what if the governor feels the need to have good government and refuses a gerrymander with some moderates in the legislature?

Hmmm... Huntsman in particular seems unlikely to sign a commission override bill if he is the next governor, but it may not matter.  Republicans have nearly 80% of the seats in both chambers (and only 1 seat flipped in each last year), so they can lose a lot of votes and still do a veto override. 

The optics of repealing the commission outright would be really, really bad.  I don't think that is what will happen.  It's more likely that they edit the commission's criteria/procedure in a way that would lead to a more Republican-leaning map.  For example, removing the COI criterion, or removing the  municipality (SLC) splitting provision but keeping the minimal county splits one.   

What would the partisan numbers be on a SLC district that only included the most Republican parts of the county?

Something like R+10 (DRA doesn't have Presidential 2016 numbers)

Just give us the Mccain numbers. Both Trump and Romney numbers are too extreme in utah.