2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Michigan

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Andy Levin's re-election hopes are very much still alive. And so are Meijer's.
I could see them both hold on in 2022.

Levin's new seat is Trump +0.9, down from Trump +5.3 in 2016. Possibly winnable, but unlikely for 2022. He could try to win it back in 2024.

"Unlikely for 2022" is reliant on a lot of factors, such as national environment (this is an elastic area), the R opponent he gets, and other things.
Incumbency is also on his side (though it counts for less than usual in election cycles immediately after redistricting).
Ultimately I'd wait a bit before writing his political obituary.

[Minnesota Mike]

Andy Levin's re-election hopes are very much still alive. And so are Meijer's.
I could see them both hold on in 2022.

Levin's new seat is Trump +0.9, down from Trump +5.3 in 2016. Possibly winnable, but unlikely for 2022. He could try to win it back in 2024.

I wouldn't bet against an incumbent named Levin in Michigan, especially since the seat is only Trump+1 and is trending left.

[Oryxslayer]

Also what do we think about Tlaib's position in the new seat? On one hand, she gets all the Arab areas west of Detroit and the BVAP goes down in MI-12 compared to the old MI-13. On the other hand the African American areas are now more geographically unified, some of these areas are new, and one of them is the comparatively more politically engaged Southfield. Also Tlaib is technically outside the seat, but every incumbent really is and movement is expected.

Also Brenda Lawrence technically lives in Southfield and could run in MI-12 if she has a vendetta against Tlaib for any reason, but she will most likely go for the open successor seat of MI-13.

[BoiseBoy]

Also what do we think about Tlaib's position in the new seat? On one hand, she gets all the Arab areas west of Detroit and the BVAP goes down in MI-12 compared to the old MI-13. On the other hand the African American areas are now more geographically unified, some of these areas are new, and one of them is the comparatively more politically engaged Southfield.

Also Brenda Lawrence technically lives in Southfield and could run in MI-12 if she has a vendetta against Tlaib for any reason, but she will most likely go for the open successor seat of MI-13.

Tlaib losing a primary would just make this map all the better IMO.

[lfromnj]

There's also a chance  Levin goes for the Oakland seat. Incumbents always run to the safe seat. I think Joe Walsh is one of the few in 2010 who didn't.

[😥]

Birch would have been better

[Oryxslayer]

There's also a chance  Levin goes for the Oakland seat. Incumbents always run to the safe seat. I think Joe Walsh is one of the few in 2010 who didn't.

Stevens already in the past minutes announced their intention to run for the Oakland seat and Slotkin for the Lansing one, so Levin would be announcing a primary campaign.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There's also a chance  Levin goes for the Oakland seat. Incumbents always run to the safe seat. I think Joe Walsh is one of the few in 2010 who didn't.

Stevens already in the past minutes announced their intention to run for the Oakland seat and Slotkin for the Lansing one, so Levin would be announcing a primary campaign.

Does the new MI-11 have more of Stevens' territory or Levin's? Because it looks like she has more of her turf in the seat than he does...

[lfromnj]

There's also a chance  Levin goes for the Oakland seat. Incumbents always run to the safe seat. I think Joe Walsh is one of the few in 2010 who didn't.

Stevens already in the past minutes announced their intention to run for the Oakland seat and Slotkin for the Lansing one, so Levin would be announcing a primary campaign.

Does the new MI-11 have more of Stevens' territory or Levin's? Because it looks like she has more of her turf in the seat than he does...

More of Stevens of course but the Levin name will even it out. After that Levin gets a safe district for the decade rather than having to run a campaign every 2 years.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There's also a chance  Levin goes for the Oakland seat. Incumbents always run to the safe seat. I think Joe Walsh is one of the few in 2010 who didn't.

Stevens already in the past minutes announced their intention to run for the Oakland seat and Slotkin for the Lansing one, so Levin would be announcing a primary campaign.

Does the new MI-11 have more of Stevens' territory or Levin's? Because it looks like she has more of her turf in the seat than he does...

More of Stevens of course but the Levin name will even it out. After that Levin gets a safe district for the decade rather than having to run a campaign every 2 years.

If Levin stays put in the 10th I could see him become a sort of Brian Fitzpatrick, who stubbornly holds on to a strong district with a slight lean towards the other party.
But as you said, he has a good chance of winning a primary in MI-11 as well.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/CraigDMauger/status/1475940345544335368

Boom

[Oryxslayer]

According to this report, there are now quite a few GOP names looking at the Macomb seat, including John James. That said, the majority are from Oakland. Now they have greater incentives.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/CraigDMauger/status/1475940345544335368

Boom

Whelp.
I'm moving MI-10 to Likely R. It's now open.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

According to this report, there are now quite a few GOP names looking at the Macomb seat, including John James. That said, the majority are from Oakland. Now they have greater incentives.

I expect a crowded field. There's nothing that gets more attention from ambitions pols than a new congressional open seat.

[BoiseBoy]

The MICRC has passed the Linden map for state senate.

[lfromnj]

Partisan fairness is splitting Ann ARbor to give Democrats 21 /38 seats.

[Gass3268]

Partisan fairness is splitting Ann ARbor to give Democrats 21 /38 seats.

Correct

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1475948493256728591?s=20

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That adopted map is awesome. Basically a soft D gerrymander from a commission.

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/DavidEggert00/status/1475941295067648001?s=20

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/DavidEggert00/status/1475941295067648001?s=20

Rooting for Levin here

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/DavidEggert00/status/1475941295067648001?s=20

Rooting for Levin here

Same.

[Gass3268]

Really its Stevens who should be running in MI-10.

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1475954306578853888?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/iansandlerbowen/status/1475955788837445638?s=20

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/iansandlerbowen/status/1475955788837445638?s=20

What's the partisan breakdown here?