2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Michigan

[😥]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/michigan/proposal_18/

This 18th!!! proposal actually strikes as the best of them all

[politicallefty]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/michigan/proposal_18/

This 18th!!! proposal actually strikes as the best of them all

It's the first proposal to have 5 Democratic districts in the Detroit metro (i.e. the first to not cede a Republican-leaning Macomb district). Actually, it's also the first map to have 5 Democratic districts without going the Grand Rapids-Kalamazoo route

It's definitely an improvement. However, I'm not fond of moving the Flint-Saginaw district into the Thumb. That's blood red territory and a community of interest, not to mention pulling the district to the right. It also seems like they're having trouble figuring out what to do with Grand Rapids to make it a more competitive district. It might be trending D, but it's probably out of reach in this particular map. A Grand Rapids-Muskegon district, on the other hand, would have a slight Democratic lean (anywhere from Biden +7-9% and split almost evenly between Clinton and Trump). If they slightly reduced the Democratic lean of the Macomb district, created a Grand Rapids-Muskegon district, and pulled the Flint-Saginaw district out of the Thumb, we might have a map. The Lansing district will have a slight Republican lean no matter what you do, although less than its predecessor.

Once again, it does appear that one inevitability of the eventual map will be that the eliminated district is essentially collapsing the current MI-02 and MI-04 into one district.

[BoiseBoy]

Michigan commission approves draft state senate map in surprise vote (5-4, 4 of the commissioners were not present):
https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2021/10/michigan-redistricting-commission-approves-state-senate-draft-map-in-surprise-vote.html

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Michigan commission approves draft state senate map in surprise vote (5-4, 4 of the commissioners were not present):
https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2021/10/michigan-redistricting-commission-approves-state-senate-draft-map-in-surprise-vote.html

I mean I guess they had a quorum but that doesn’t seem in the spirit of an “independent commission”…

[Antonio the Sixth]

Michigan commission approves draft state senate map in surprise vote (5-4, 4 of the commissioners were not present):
https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2021/10/michigan-redistricting-commission-approves-state-senate-draft-map-in-surprise-vote.html

Who voted for this? The article is paywalled.

[ilikeverin]

Michigan commission approves draft state senate map in surprise vote (5-4, 4 of the commissioners were not present):
https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2021/10/michigan-redistricting-commission-approves-state-senate-draft-map-in-surprise-vote.html

Who voted for this? The article is paywalled.

In all, Democrat Dustin Witjes, Independents Janice Vallette and Richard Weiss and Republicans Cynthia Orton and Doug Clark voted to move forward and approve the map, while Chair Rebecca Szetela, an Independent, Vice Chair MC Rothhorn, a Democrat, and Independents Steve Lett and Anthony Eid voted no.

Commissioners who voted no said they were primarily concerned with the change in procedure, especially with so many members absent.

[Virginiá]

From above article:

Based on the measures commissioners are using to determine partisan fairness, the draft state Senate map approved by commissioners Friday slightly favors Republicans but would lead to a competitive map that could give Democrats a shot at capturing the majority for the first time in decades.

Measures considered include the lopsided margin, which analyzes the concentration of Democratic and Republican voters in the districts as proposed, and the efficiency gap, which quantifies the number of “wasted votes” cast in elections — any votes cast for the losing candidate and any votes above 50% for the winning candidate. A low efficiency gap score indicates a more politically neutral map.

Both of those measurements show the map overall slightly favors Republicans, with a lopsided margin advantage of 4.5% favoring Republicans and an efficiency gap of 3.2%, also favoring Republican candidates.

But in one key measure, the seat-to-vote share, a commission analysis of past election data in the decade since the last redistricting process showed a slight advantage for Democrats, indicating the possibility of a 20-18 seat split with Democrats in the majority. The chamber is currently split 20-16 in favor of Republicans with two open Republican-leaning seats.

[Gass3268]

Some adjustments have been made to the State Senate map that finally unpacks Ann Arbor.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1447584494379311114?s=20

[ChineseConservative]

Michigan commission approves draft state senate map in surprise vote (5-4, 4 of the commissioners were not present):
https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2021/10/michigan-redistricting-commission-approves-state-senate-draft-map-in-surprise-vote.html

Who voted for this? The article is paywalled.

Try typing and putting "outline.com/" before the website's url to get past the paywall.

[😥]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1447792080605024259?s=20

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1447792080605024259?s=20

If the new MI-3 becomes Dem leaning and the MAGA mob remains relentless, Meijer might be smart to seriously consider switching parties. His record is thin enough he could make it work.

[politicallefty]

If the new MI-3 becomes Dem leaning and the MAGA mob remains relentless, Meijer might be smart to seriously consider switching parties. His record is thin enough he could make it work.

Where are the maps? I'm interested to see how two of them are 7/13 Biden. Every map I've seen that created a Democratic district for Grand Rapids ceded a Macomb district to the Republicans. Otherwise, they must've somehow tweaked the lines enough for the Lansing district to have voted for Biden. The map I drew on the previous page had a Lansing district that voted by a hair for Trump.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1447792080605024259?s=20

Looks like those maps only differ in the Detroit area and are identical in the rest of Michigan. This means no Dem-leaning Grand Rapids seat, and the two swingy districts both have a R tilt. Kind of annoying honestly. You'd think at least they'd try to make the Flint-Saginaw district a bit more Democratic. There were some plans that seemed to do that.

Anyway it seems decently fair otherwise. Can't exactly complain, especially in light of what other independent commissions are doing in places like CO.

[politicallefty]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1447792080605024259?s=20

Looks like those maps only differ in the Detroit area and are identical in the rest of Michigan. This means no Dem-leaning Grand Rapids seat, and the two swingy districts both have a R tilt. Kind of annoying honestly. You'd think at least they'd try to make the Flint-Saginaw district a bit more Democratic. There were some plans that seemed to do that.

Anyway it seems decently fair otherwise. Can't exactly complain, especially in light of what other independent commissions are doing in places like CO.

The Flint-Saginaw district is fairly constrained as to where it can go, especially if they want to maintain five Democratic districts in the Detroit-Ann Arbor area. The most important thing for that district is to keep it out of the Thumb. That is the most Republican area of the state and it has been blood red since the founding of the Republican Party in 1856. The Lansing district also really doesn't have any place to go. I think it's a pretty even split between Biden and Trump that just tinkers around the margins, but it is a slightly improved district for Elissa Slotkin.

[Devils30]

Stevens seems like the likely biggest winner, I expect the new MI-11 to look considerably more blue with the new maps. Dems should push for a Grand Rapids to Kalamazoo MI-3.

[Non Swing Voter]

Hilarious that Dems could get a better map out of Michigan than Virginia...

[JerryArkansas]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1447792080605024259?s=20

Looks like those maps only differ in the Detroit area and are identical in the rest of Michigan. This means no Dem-leaning Grand Rapids seat, and the two swingy districts both have a R tilt. Kind of annoying honestly. You'd think at least they'd try to make the Flint-Saginaw district a bit more Democratic. There were some plans that seemed to do that.

Anyway it seems decently fair otherwise. Can't exactly complain, especially in light of what other independent commissions are doing in places like CO.

Three of the four don't do a Grand Rapids democratic seat.  One of the four does unite it and Kalamazoo

[amateur_psepho]

[snip]

[more snip]

Three of the four don't do a Grand Rapids democratic seat.  One of the four does unite it and Kalamazoo

im pretty sure none of the four have the grand rapids to kalamazoo seat. one has a g.r.-muskegon seat though, but it comes at the expense of the winnable macomb district.

[Gass3268]

A Republican commissioner just released this:

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1448505117305622531?s=20

[Devils30]

A Republican commissioner just released this:

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1448505117305622531?s=20

Dems should consider taking this one, it has trendymander potential with what's happened in Kent, Oakland.

[Oryxslayer]

A Republican commissioner just released this:

Dems should consider taking this one, it has trendymander potential with what's happened in Kent, Oakland.

I don't expect this map to go anywhere cause of the Lansing split - keeping the three counties together was I believe one of the red lines agreed to at the start.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1448713317506330631

This ballot measure will gerrymander the state more than a  theoretical dem trifecta could. Pretty impressive.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1447792080605024259?s=20

If the new MI-3 becomes Dem leaning and the MAGA mob remains relentless, Meijer might be smart to seriously consider switching parties. His record is thin enough he could make it work.

Agreed.  He and that area both seem to fit more with the Dems long term trajectory than the GOP as long as they are on the Trump train.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1447792080605024259?s=20

If the new MI-3 becomes Dem leaning and the MAGA mob remains relentless, Meijer might be smart to seriously consider switching parties. His record is thin enough he could make it work.

Agreed.  He and that area both seem to fit more with the Dems long term trajectory than the GOP as long as they are on the Trump train.

I think he is fairly conservative. Just not a Trump/MAGA cultist.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1447792080605024259?s=20

If the new MI-3 becomes Dem leaning and the MAGA mob remains relentless, Meijer might be smart to seriously consider switching parties. His record is thin enough he could make it work.

Agreed.  He and that area both seem to fit more with the Dems long term trajectory than the GOP as long as they are on the Trump train.

I think he is fairly conservative. Just not a Trump/MAGA cultist.

He seems conservative on fiscal issues but moderate on social issues.  people vote more on social issues nowadays.