latest Betfair odds

[eric82oslo]

Why only go with Betfair, when there are so many other bookmakers out there offering odds as well?

Here are the best odds offered by any of (currently) 12 international bookmakers out there:

Link/source: http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner

1. Hillary - 2.88
2. Marco Rubio - 13
3. Chris Christie - 17
4. Jeb Bush - 21
5. Paul Ryan - 21
6. Rand Paul - 23
7. Kamala Harris - 25 (lol)
8. Elizabeth Warren - 26
9. Joe Biden - 34
10. Rob Portman - 34
11. Ted Cruz - 34
12. Ron Wyden/Tim Pawlenty - 34
14. Andrew Cuomo - 41
15. Martin O'Malley - 41
16. Bobby Jindal - 41
17. Scott Walker - 41 (sorry to disappoint you Walker fans lol)
18. Susana Martinez - 41
19. Kirsten Gillibrand - 41
20. Mitch Daniels - 50
21. Meg Whitman/Randall Terry/Warren Mosler - 50
24. John Hickenlooper - 51
25. Tammy Baldwin/Jim Webb/Sam Graves - 51
28. Deval Patrick - 67
29. Michael Blomberg - 67
30. Condoleezza Rice - 67
31. Rahm Emanuel - 67
32. Evan Bayh - 67
33. Brian Schweitzer - 67 (lol)
34. Russ Feingold/Debbie Wasserman Schulz - 67
36. Rick Santorum - 75 (lol)
37. Mark Warner - 81
38. Mike Huckabee - 81 (what?)
39. Bob McDonnell - 81 (why is he even on the lists?)
40. Ed Rendell/John Edwards - 81 (what??)
41. Tim Kaine - 91
42. Colin Powell - 100
43. Sarah Palin - 101
44. Mitt Romney - 101 (what does the dog say?)
45. Julian Castro - 101
46. Rick Perry - 101 (ooops!)
47. David Petraeus - 101
48. Jon Huntsman - 101
49. Amy Klobuchar - 101
50. Eric Cantor - 101
51. Cory Booker - 101
52. John Kasich - 101
53. John Kerry - 101
54. Janet Napolitano/Mike Pence - 101
56. Mia Love - 101
57. John McCain/Kay Hagan/Antonio Villaraigosa/John Thune/John Bolton/Dennis Kucinich/Chris Matthews - 101
64. Donald Trump - 126
65. Michele Bachmann - 126
66. Nicky Haley - 126
(67. Arnold Schwartenegger - 126 (except he wasn't born in the US/an American citizen lol))
67. Ron Paul - 150
68. Kathleen Sebelius - 151
69. Chelsea Clinton/Al Franken - 151
71. Al Gore - 176
72. Newt Gingrich - 201
73. Herman Caine - 201
74. Ben Carson/Karl Rove/George Clooney - 201
77. Michelle Obama - 301
78. Eva Longoria/Alec Baldwin - 301
80. Clint Eastwod - 501
81. Nate Silver - 539 (lol)


I'm surprised at how long odds some candidates have. Especially Hillary, but also Jeb Bush, Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee.

What are the thoughts of the rest of you?

[eric82oslo]

My current gut feeling says that Rand Paul currently stands the greatest chances for the nomination, with Jeb slightly behind.

[eric82oslo]

I'm surprised Bush hasn't surpassed 50% yet to be honest. The others seem more or less incompetent. The few who are seeming less incompetent are:

1) Kasich
2) Rubio
3) Christie

And that might be all, although after the debate in one week from now we will know a lot more.

[eric82oslo]

Christie might/will soon be ahead of Carson and Walker as well. I've predicted there would be a Christie surge for months, just like there was for McCain (and many other candidates for that matter). You're not dead until you're lying in the grave. (And even then, some people have actually been burried alive lol.)

[eric82oslo]

Does anyone feel Bush isn't overpriced here?

I think it is about right. Bush still has lots of money, and may get his act together, and nobody else really is getting traction other than Carson (Trump isn't going to be the nominee), and the doubts about Carson, are that he is inept at policy prescriptions, and articulating them effectively, so the assumption at some point is that he will far by the wayside. Fiorina has shown that she can stumble, and stumble pretty badly, and Rubio still looks like a kid, and gets agitated under pressure. While some say the Pubs have an "embarrassment of riches" in their field, the truth of the matter is that all of the candidates have material flaws. Romney looks better and better to me. Fancy that!

Torie, you and I both know that Romney is an unelectable, out-of-touch, entitled, white elitist. Mormon bishop to boot.

Almost any 2016 candidate would perform better than Romney, Trump included.

Oh come on, don't be ridiculous! This is so silly that I don't even feel like addressing it.

There are extremely many candidates that would do far worse than Romney in any circumstances, including Jindal, Cruz, Trump and Huckabee.

[eric82oslo]

Buy Cruz, sell Bush.  Those numbers are way off.

I think Christie is the most underrated, although I agree that Cruz is underrated as well. Rand Paul is also ever so slightly underrated I guess.

[eric82oslo]

So basically Democrats have about a 59% chance combined to win the election. Sounds about right to me.

[eric82oslo]

Republicans
Huckabee 3.1
Kasich 2.6

I would have expected Kasich to be ahead of Huckabee at this point.

[eric82oslo]

We have reached a point where Donald Trump has a better chance of being our next president than Jeb Bush. I dislike Jeb Bush, but God in Heaven, what is this nation coming to?

Trump would be a much better President than Bush would.

False statement. Your pants are on fire. Unless you consider the US government turning into a terrorist organisation where it breaks up the lives of 11 million families and absolutely destroys them morally, financially, psychologically and in every other way imaginable as being a decent presidency. If that's the case, then maybe you're right. I however, would never call widespread terror at that level for anything inherently good. Kasich is right about that. Maybe because he's a decent guy with his family values still intact.

[eric82oslo]

Kasich still being below Huckabee is just mindboggingly laughable and ridiculous. >

I loved Huckabee in 2008, cause back then he was the closest thing we had to Trump - an entertainment figure - as well as to Carson - really funny at times. Yet during this campaign Huckabee has shown to be at the very most extremes 20-25% of his former self. Usually he's only hoovered in the 12-15% range though. At the same time Kasich has had two out of three hands down absolutely amazing debates. I admit that he sucked almost as horrifically as Trump at the second debate, yet his first and third debates were both absolutely world class. Huckabee during this season so far has had two extremely, on the brink of laughably, bad performances, plus one below mediocre. And still the pundits pretend like Huckabee still has a better chance than Kasich?!? Are they on medical marijuana or something?

[eric82oslo]

I'm surprised Sanders didn't take a bigger hit tonight but then again I was also a little surprised that he didn't get more of a bump for winning New Hampshire by 22.4%.

According to 538's projections, Sanders did by far his best job tonight. He was less than 3% behind his perfect result, which would give him a brokered convention. Even with his 23% massive win in New Hampshire, he was still about 5% behind 538's expected result from that state, which was 28%. Nevada is easily Sanders biggest success to date (if you're a pure matemathics/science guy that is lol).

[eric82oslo]

Cruz is only tied with Kasich now? Sheesh, that seems like a bit of an overreaction.

They have a good reason. I once thought Cruz was underrated too, but when you actually look at the nitty gritty, the math becomes very tough for him. Particularly since he just finished 3rd in a state he was either supposed to win or make very close.

It's called negative campaigning from Trump. Don't put too much into it. I don't exactly believe in Cruz either, but you're putting way too much into a single poor state. It's like claiming that Kasich was chanceless because he basically got no votes in Iowa.

[eric82oslo]

What are the latest odds after last night? I suppose that Rubio's odds have dropped further and Sanders odds have increased slightly.