The absentee/early vote thread

[Gustaf]

Did StatesPoll ever go to school? Serious question. So far this year only 1,257 people have voted. Per here.

545 Republican
470 Democrat
242 Other/Unaffiliated

He probably went to school in Russia.

[Gustaf]

From following the discussion here it seems like there are some states (like Iowa) where Democrats tend to dominate the early vote and others (like Florida) where Republicans do. Why is that?

[Gustaf]

more FL fun....

EXCLUSIVE: Of the 514k EIP & VBM who've voted in FL but who skipped 2012 or registered subsequently:

67% white

8% black

17% Hispanic


In FL, 53% of registered "Active" voters are women, 45% are men.

Of those who have voted as of this am...

54% women

44% men

https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/791837496954978304

2012 FL exit polls had it at 67-13-17, so not much change except a weird drop in black turnout. What's all the rest supposed to be?

[Gustaf]

I haven't followed this in enough detail so I'd be glad if someone could help me out. I have the following 2 impressions:

1. Early voting statistics as posted in this thread (racial/partisan breakdown of early voters) show middling to poor results for Clinton, in aggregate - that is, she's running close to or slightly behind Obama 2012 numbers in those terms.

2. Polls consistently indicate Clinton is leading and leading big among early voters.

Could this suggest that Clinton is simply doing a lot better among whites than Obama did and taken together this is kind of a good sign? Or is one of my impressions wrong? Or is there another explanation?

[Gustaf]

2. Polls consistently indicate Clinton is leading and leading big among early voters.

It depends on how well Obama was doing in polls among EV. For instance if he was doing ~better, then it is nothing strange at all. And MOE should be taken into account.

Otherwise, it could indicate some sort of realigment (that would not shoke me).

It looks like the FL/NC polls are backwards, with NC being less diverse, Florida being more diverse (Latinos more than offsetting lower Black share).

What is raw numbers of EV by race in Florida 2012 vs 2016?

I guess that's possible but it'd imply white early voters differ enormously from white election day voters. Is that the case?