Handicapping Kansas

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Santorum 54%
Romney 22%
Paul 18%
Gingrich 6%

Santorum wins all four districts and thus all delegates.

[J. J.]

Santorum 54%
Romney 22%
Paul 18%
Gingrich 6%

Santorum wins all four districts and thus all delegates.

Paul is too high.  Gingrich is too low.

[Torie]

52% Rick
35% Mittens
09% Paul
04% Newt

[J. J.]

52% Rick
35% Mittens
09% Paul
04% Newt

I think if you reverse Paul and Newt, you might be right.

[Torie]

52% Rick
35% Mittens
09% Paul
04% Newt

I think if you reverse Paul and Newt, you might be right.

Ya, I pulled that one out of my ass. I thought, well it is a caucus, so how can Paul go much below 10% even in Kansas, and then I thought about the story that Newt had "abandoned" the state, and maybe caucus types tend to be political junkies, and saw the horrible poll news for Newt coming out of Miss and Alabama, and I thought, well if I have to choose between the two, I'm going to go for keeping Paul close to 10%, and screw Newt - at least in KS ... he's dead.

Have I changed your mind? 

[Minnesota Mike]

Santorun-57
Romney- 21
Gingrich-12
Paul-10

Delegates-

Santorum- 33
Romney- 7

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Oh the at-large delegates are proportional this time? I guess Santorum doesn't take all delegates then.

[J. J.]

52% Rick
35% Mittens
09% Paul
04% Newt

I think if you reverse Paul and Newt, you might be right.

Ya, I pulled that one out of my ass. I thought, well it is a caucus, so how can Paul go much below 10% even in Kansas, and then I thought about the story that Newt had "abandoned" the state, and maybe caucus types tend to be political junkies, and saw the horrible poll news for Newt coming out of Miss and Alabama, and I thought, well if I have to choose between the two, I'm going to go for keeping Paul close to 10%, and screw Newt - at least in KS ... he's dead.

Have I changed your mind? 

No.  Gringrich appeals to some social conservatives and some people remember his from the Speakership.  Further, the news coming out, poll-wise, is not saying Santorum; it is saying Romney.

[Eraserhead]

52% Rick
35% Mittens
09% Paul
04% Newt

I think if you reverse Paul and Newt, you might be right.

How is it you think Paul is only going to 4%?  He got 11% in 2008 and he's improved on his 2008 % in every other state before this.

[argentarius]

Oh the at-large delegates are proportional this time? I guess Santorum doesn't take all delegates then.

Proportional for those who get 20%. I think Newt will get maybe 7% or something, Paul has spent enough time in the state to get 15%, and this leaves Santorum needing 60 to get the sweep. And I don't put it past him. I don't know how some of you predict Romney to do better here, in his worst state in the country imo, than he's doing in the Gallup poll.

[© tweed]

Santorum wins by less than ten points.  Romney-2, Paul-3.

[Torie]

52% Rick
35% Mittens
09% Paul
04% Newt

I think if you reverse Paul and Newt, you might be right.

How is it you think Paul is only going to 4%?  He got 11% in 2008 and he's improved on his 2008 % in every other state before this.

Yes, it would be better if one could have percentages that add up to 110% rather than 100% I admit. Something had to give, and I went with the two front runners dominating. Anyway, I would be amazed if Mittens fell below 30%, and I doubt it will be that low. But who knows. I am flying on instinct.

[Eraserhead]

52% Rick
35% Mittens
09% Paul
04% Newt

I think if you reverse Paul and Newt, you might be right.

How is it you think Paul is only going to 4%?  He got 11% in 2008 and he's improved on his 2008 % in every other state before this.

Yes, it would be better if one could have percentages that add up to 110% rather than 100% I admit. Something had to give, and I went with the two front runners dominating. Anyway, I would be amazed if Mittens fell below 30%, and I doubt it will be that low. But who knows. I am flying on instinct.

That was directed more toward JJ than you. 9% for Paul is definitely a bit more realistic.

[NHI]

Santorum wins... ugh!

Santorum: 53%
Romney: 17%
Gingrich: 15%
Paul: 13%


Per. CNN

[Eraserhead]

Santorum wins... ugh!

Santorum: 53%
Romney: 17%
Gingrich: 15%
Paul: 13%


Per. CNN

Those aren't the final numbers. The vote is still coming in.

[Mr. Morden]

Anyway, I would be amazed if Mittens fell below 30%, and I doubt it will be that low.

How do you feel about ~20%?

[I'm JewCon in name only.]

Yea I pick Santorum to win Kansas big time.

Hopefully a win here gives Santorum some momentum in AL, MS because we are struggling there.