UK local by-elections 2011

[joevsimp]

CHELMSFORD CENTRAL, Essex County Council; caused by the death of a Lib Dem councillor.  The county town of Essex, Chelmsford became an industrial centre in the 19th century, with Marconi setting up the world's first radio factory here; the town remains a major employment centre even though thousands of people commute from here to London.  This division covers the central business district and the Moulsham area to its south.  It was marginal LD/C in 2005 but the Lib Dems increased their majority in 2009, the votes being LD 44.5 C 33.6 Grn 8.2 Lab 7.7 BNP 6.1.  Candidates for the by-election are just the three main parties.

that's a shame, because that is exactly the kind of place the Greens need to start winning, that 8.2 was not remotely a fluke, and nowhere near their best result in Essex, and they need to block their's and the LibDems' protest votes going back to labour

[joevsimp]

Some extra snippets from the excellent Britain Votes blog:

* The Tory candidate in Brompton is Louis Mosley, grandson of Oswald.
* The former Lib Dem councillor in Chelmsford Central died while waiting for an operation that repeatedly got cancelled - and she was on the board of directors of the hospital involved.

Any news on a potential Stock byelection in Essex if/when Lord Hanningfield resigns?

[joevsimp]

And about the Wokingham seat, is that even legal to sit on two borough/district councils (which are the same thing) at the same time? I see for County/Borough, County/District and the combinaisons with Parish councils, but two same-level authorities?

you have to live in the area covered by the council you are running for a seat in, but you don't automatically have to resign if you move out of the district, so I suppose there's nothing stopping you, but he'd come under pressure to quit before long ( similar thing happened a few years ago when a labour cllr in Lambeth was selected as the candidate for a parliamentary seat in Bristol and moved there)

[joevsimp]

August is normally a quiet month for by-elections and there is just one on 4th August.

SOUTH PETHERTON, Somerset County Council; caused by the resignation of a Conservative councillor.  South Petherton is a tiny town in rural Somerset, just of the A303 about ten miles west of Yeovil.  The division includes a hinterland stretching to the villages of Merriott and Hinton St George to the south.  Those villages are in the district ward of Eggwood, which was fairly safe Lib Dem in May, while South Petherton ward itself (which also includes some villages to the west) is a marginal ward won by the Conservatives in May, gaining a seat from the Lib Dems.  This produces a marginal county division, like much of rural Somerset; the 2009 result was a Conservative gain with a majority of 94 (C 43.3 LD 40.3 Ind 9.2 Grn 7.2) while in May the Lib Dems were slightly ahead across the two district wards.  Candidates for the by-election are C/LD/Grn/UKIP; the Conservative candidate is a district councillor for South Petherton and the Lib Dem candidate is the district councillor for Eggwood, while the independent candidate from 2009 now has the Green nomination.

apart from the fact that it'll be most likely a tory hold, that sounds like an interesting one

also, wtf is goin on in Gwynedd? I thought it was Ynys Mon that was supposed to be falling apart from the inside

[joevsimp]

what the hell happenned there?

[joevsimp]

I think we can safely predict that the red flag will fly over Eton & Castle.

As for St Peters, yeah, it's one of the most gentrified wards in Islington, though isn't without its poorer sections (because Islington is like that). A few decades back and it would have been a solidly working class area, of course. Labour gaining it in 2006 was a massive, massive shock; one of the defeated LibDem councillors was the borough's then-leader, the controversial and (allegedly!) tyrannical Steve Hitchins.

Do you think current goings-on will affect the result?  Rainham is too close to that for my liking, let alone central Islington

[joevsimp]

You're good at this aren't you? Yes, it happens all the time in rural areas, although it isn't as common as it used to be.

It's more or less the norm on a number of parish/town councils, and I'd guess that on many of the independent-dominated districts in Wales and the North of Scotland, there's an element of this going on

[joevsimp]

A Tory councillor in Brighton & Hove has resigned their seat of Westbourne and there is rumour that there may possibly be a by-election before Christmas so I'll keep ya'll updated on that.. Even if the seat doesn't chance hands the result could be interesting given this is the only principal local authority with a (minority) Green-led administration. Results from earlier this year:

Tory: 39%
Labour: 29%   
Green: 25%
Lib Dem: 7%

If we compare that to Goldsmid back in 2009, the previous result there was....(top candidate for each party only)


Paul Lainchbury   C   1330   28.1%
Melanie Davis   Lab   1231   26.0%
Rob Jarrett           Grn   1010   21.3%
Bob Bailey           LD   720           15.2%
Anne Giebeler   BHI   314             6.6%
Gemma Furness   Ind   134             2.8%

so greens and labour both much further back, labour with more momentum than then and no disgraced outgoing tory, all to play for

[joevsimp]

Walsall Council has scheduled a by-election for the 22nd December, Good luck getting turnout for that one.....

Wembley Central as well now, possibly Wrstbourne, Hove too.  Who is it who sets the dates for these?


I don't think that the student vote (or absence of it) will have much effect in any of these, but I agree its a stupid date for a byelection, is there even any council business over winterval?

[joevsimp]

What are those changes from, I don't recognise them? I make it:

Con 45.9% (-7.1%)
Lab 38.0% (+4.8%)
Grn  8.9% (-5.0%)
UKI  4.1% (+4.1%)
Lib  3.1% (+3.1%)

On the face of it and taking an overly simplistic view it looks like Labour attracted nothing but Green voters and the Liberal and UKIP vote is made up exclusively of Tory voters.

well that could've been interesting under AV:D

is it just the two tomorrow? Wembley and Westbourne?