EP elections 2014

[Tender Branson]

Tell me if you find some error, the extended data is here

Nice.

But AUT is currently a 3-way tie for 1st place according to the new Gallup poll, with the ÖVP and SPÖ projected to get 5 seats and FPÖ getting 4 seats.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=170930.msg4038510#msg4038510

But really, anything can happen.

[FredLindq]

Tories are in the ECR!

[Diouf]

With the percentages you currently have for the Netherlands, and if alliances are the same as in 2009, then the outcome will be:

VVD 5
PVV 5
D66 4
PvdA 3
SP 3
CDA 3
50+ 1
CU 1
GL 1

VVD are in ALDE, CU in ECR, GL in Greens. Don't know what the 50+ will do; their lead candidate is Toine Manders, a long-time VVD MEP.

Electoral threshold is 100/26 = 3,85 %

[Ilùvatar]

Tell me if you find some error, the extended data is here

Nice.

But AUT is currently a 3-way tie for 1st place according to the new Gallup poll, with the ÖVP and SPÖ projected to get 5 seats and FPÖ getting 4 seats.


But really, anything can happen.

Mmm, does Austria use d'Hondt method for the distribution of the seats? Using those numbers I get 5-4-4, for the Greens takes the 18° seat...
Still, that's a close one.

ANO is likely to join ALDE.

I've had problems allocating ANO to the right group, thanks.

Tories are in the ECR!

Whoa, that's a big mistake. EPP and S&D looks really close now.

With the percentages you currently have for the Netherlands, and if alliances are the same as in 2009, then the outcome will be:

VVD 5
PVV 5
D66 4
PvdA 3
SP 3
CDA 3
50+ 1
CU 1
GL 1

VVD are in ALDE, CU in ECR, GL in Greens. Don't know what the 50+ will do; their lead candidate is Toine Manders, a long-time VVD MEP.

Electoral threshold is 100/26 = 3,85 %

Yes, i was using a wrong electoral threshold.

[Tender Branson]

Tell me if you find some error, the extended data is here

Nice.

But AUT is currently a 3-way tie for 1st place according to the new Gallup poll, with the ÖVP and SPÖ projected to get 5 seats and FPÖ getting 4 seats.


But really, anything can happen.

Mmm, does Austria use d'Hondt method for the distribution of the seats? Using those numbers I get 5-4-4, for the Greens takes the 18° seat...
Still, that's a close one.

Interesting, I thought that the Greens would only get 2 seats with 14%.

But I ran the D'Hondt calculator myself now and got 4 seats each for ÖVP, SPÖ and FPÖ, 3 for the Greens and 2 for NEOS. 1 remaining seat is a tie between ÖVP and SPÖ.

[Ilùvatar]

Interesting, I thought that the Greens would only get 2 seats with 14%.

But I ran the D'Hondt calculator myself now and got 4 seats each for ÖVP, SPÖ and FPÖ, 3 for the Greens and 2 for NEOS. 1 remaining seat is a tie between ÖVP and SPÖ.

Same results here.

[Diouf]

AFD (Germany) is expected to join the ECR, PSL (Poland) is a part of the EPP, UPyD (Spain) are non-inscrits now, Jobbik (Hungary) and Golden Dawn (Greece) are non-inscrits and I believe EAF have refused them.

The PSOE (Spain) seem to be missing in the results section.

I also think you should look at some the Euro-specific UK polls; I think a few have been posted earlier in this thread. UKIP and the Conservatives' results will probably be the other way around.

[Ilùvatar]

AFD (Germany) is expected to join the ECR, PSL (Poland) is a part of the EPP, UPyD (Spain) are non-inscrits now, Jobbik (Hungary) and Golden Dawn (Greece) are non-inscrits and I believe EAF have refused them.

The PSOE (Spain) seem to be missing in the results section.

I also think you should look at some the Euro-specific UK polls; I think a few have been posted earlier in this thread. UKIP and the Conservatives' results will probably be the other way around.

The polls are euro-specific where available, for some minor countries I've had problem finding any polls at all but for UK I made a mistake changing the data from a previous poll.

[palandio]

Belgium: There are three constituencies, one of them is for the small German-speaking region in the East which elects exactly one deputy, likely from the Christian Socials (EPP).
France: France is divided into constituencies with d'Hondt distribution which should favor the larger parties.
UK: Similar to France. Additionally there is a Northern Ireland constituency with three seats and the usual local parties competing.
Spain: The regional parties will probably form coalitions. And you got the basque nationalists two times (PNV, EAJ-PNV) as well as the basque left-wing separatists (EHB, Amaiur).
General remark: The Green/EFA caucus not only contains Green parties, but also regionalist parties that sometimes are ideologically not very close to the Greens (e.g. the Belgian N-VA)

[Ilùvatar]

Belgium: There are three constituencies, one of them is for the small German-speaking region in the East which elects exactly one deputy, likely from the Christian Socials (EPP).

Yep, no idea on how to replicate that. :/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Also true, there are 7 constituencies of about 10 seats each. I could try to recreate that, but everything depends on the votes concentration of the different party. I get that the left is stronger in the south-west.
Also not easy. Is there any proiections already made for France?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's even worse, 12 constituencies. I guess I'll have to look for third party allocation of the seats.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Ok, that's an error of my source.
The seats are allocated to the coalition first than to the party, right?

Thanks everyone for the corrections.

[YL]

Additionally there is a Northern Ireland constituency with three seats and the usual local parties competing.

... which is elected by STV, rather than d'Hondt closed lists as in the rest of the UK.  Sinn Féin are GUE-NGL, the UUP are ECR, and the DUP are Non Inscrits.  (It's possible the result won't be one each for those three, but not very likely.)

[EPG]

The state of Ireland, like Northern Ireland, uses STV in 3-4 seat constituencies, so its seats will not be as proportional to first-preference vote as the spreadsheet seems. Furthermore, in this candidate-centred electoral system, European Parliament results often differ from national polls. Compare the Irish EP and local elections in 2009, or note the Socialist Party EP result. I guess 4 EPP, 4 ALDE, 3 GUE in the south of Ireland. However, there have been no polls, not that they would be worth much.

[Gustaf]

Done!
Tell me if you find some error, the extended data is here

docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkADU7ryrSQedFRDSTZ6bzZyZnpVU1pHNkVnc2FwS1E&usp=drive_web#gid=44
​

	EPP	S&D	ALDE	GUE-NGL	Greens-EFA	EAF	EFD	ECR	NI	Total
Germany	42	26	3	8	10		7			96
France	18	15	9	7	6	19				74
UK	22	26	6		5		14			73
Italy	24	29							20	73
Spain	20	18	5	9	2					54
Poland	15	9	3		4			20		51
Romania	8	15	6						3	32
Netherlands	9	4	4	4		5				26
Portugal	8	9		4						21
Hungary	11	8				2				21
Greece	8	1		10		2				21
Czech Republic	3	5		4			2	7		21
Belgium	3	5	4		8	1				21
Sveden	6	8	1	1	2	2				20
Austria	4	5	2		2	5				18
Bulgaria	6	7	3			1				17
Slovakia	5	7	1							13
Finland	3	2	4	1	1		2			13
Denmark		3	5	2			3			13
Lithuania	2	4	3				2			11
Ireland	4	1	3	3						11
Croatia	4	5		2						11
Slovenia	5	2	1							8
Latvia	2	3			2			1		8
Malta	3	3								6
Luxemburg	3	2	1							6
Estonia	2		4							6
Cyprus	3	1		2						6
Total	243	223	68	57	42	37	30	28	23	751

I'd be very surprised if KD gets a seat and I'm not sure C will either in Sweden. So I have a hard time seeing EPP get more than 5 in Sweden. Also don't think S&D will get more than 6. FP might get 2 so ALDE could still do ok. V will probably do well, I think they could nab a second seat.

[Velasco]

La Razón (NC Report) poll (2 hours ago):

PP 18/19 seats (30.1%); PSOE 17/18 (28.1%); IU 7/8 (12.4%); UPyD 4/5 (7.7%); CEU (CiU, PNV, CC?) 2/3; EdP (ERC, BNG, EH Bildu?) 2; Equo+Compromís+Others 1/2; Citizen Movement 1; VOX 1.

I don't regard NC Report as a reliable pollster, but the results sound interesting. Anyway, coalitions are not defined yet and I'm not sure if EH Bildu (Basque independentism, left-wing) will run alone or in which coalition will be Compromís (Valencia, center-left regionalist), to give some examples. This is the first poll where VOX, the PP right-wing splinter, appears.

[Niemeyerite]

I find it surprising that Equo has 2 MEPs in this poll, and that La Razón (whose director, Marhuenda, is called Rajuenda because he's in love with Rajoy) only has PP 2 points over PSOE.

[ObserverIE]

The state of Ireland, like Northern Ireland, uses STV in 3-4 seat constituencies, so its seats will not be as proportional to first-preference vote as the spreadsheet seems. Furthermore, in this candidate-centred electoral system, European Parliament results often differ from national polls. Compare the Irish EP and local elections in 2009, or note the Socialist Party EP result. I guess 4 EPP, 4 ALDE, 3 GUE in the south of Ireland. However, there have been no polls, not that they would be worth much.

The Republic will be divided into three constituencies for the EP election:

Dublin (3 seats, unchanged),
Midlands-North-West (4 seats, the existing Border-Midlands-West with the addition of a group of northern counties in Leinster - Louth (predominantly urban, near the border with Northern Ireland), Meath and Kildare (Dublin exurbia, reasonably prosperous), Laois (more peripheral and rural) and Offaly (peripheral, mainly rural and one of the Republic's poorer counties) - but with Clare (western and mainly very peripheral and agricultural) removed to:
South (4 seats, the existing South but with the addition of Clare, Kilkenny, Carlow and Wexford from East (all mainly a mixture of reasonably prosperous agricultural areas with down-at-heel industrial small towns) and also Wicklow (more Dublin exurbia and one of the wealthier counties).

Candidates:

Dublin:

Fine Gael (EPP): Brian Hayes, junior finance minister and Tory wannabe. A full-time party apparatchik since leaving university (with all that that implies) who is capable of being smug and obnoxious at the drop of a hat, but then Dublin Fine Gael voters should be used to that from the retiring Gay Mitchell.

Labour (S&D): Emer Costello, former city councillor who was elevated to the seat upon the retirement of the outgoing MEP. Low profile, married to a junior minister, and has had one sister appointed to a position in the Senate and another appointed as a judge since FG/Labour's ascension to power in 2011, personifying the "snouts in the trough" image that the party has acquired.

Committee for a Workers' International Socialist Party (GUE): Paul Murphy, elevated to the seat in 2011 when the sitting MEP, Joe Higgins, was elected to the Dáil. Nice middle-class university graduate who has kept reasonably high profile since then but internecine squabbling among the far left may well doom him.

Fianna Fáil (ALDE): Mary Fitzpatrick, city councillor whose profile is largely due to having been on the wrong side of factional rows in Bertie Ahern's former constituency of Dublin Central (Ahern made successful efforts to ensure that the party's second seat would go to a non-entity from his own machine rather than to the stronger Fitzpatrick). May benefit from the lack of other credible non-Government candidates and her perceived lack of association with the Ahern era.

Sinn Féin (GUE): Lynn Boylan, complete unknown who, as Lynn Ní Bhaoighealláin, was an unsuccessful local and general election candidate in Kerry in the mid 00s. Originally from Dublin and life partner of Eoin Ó Broin, one of SF's more persuasive spokespersons. Currently head of a cross-border quango dealing with food safety. Likely to be reliant on the party machine bringing out the votes.

International Socialists Socialist Workers' Party t/a People Before Profit (GUE): Bríd Smith, city councillor and permanent activist in the banlieue of Ballyfermot, has been put forward by the People's Front of Judea SWP "in an effort to take a second seat" for the various components of what was briefly the United Left Alliance rather than trying to remove it from the Judean People's Front Socialist Party. Yeah, right. Likely to be a profile-raising run for the next general election where she will attempt to "assist" the sitting Judean People's Popular Front United Left TD in the Dublin South Central constituency.

Green Party: Éamon Ryan, party leader and cabinet minister during the final Ahern and Cowen governments. Again, almost certainly running in an attempt at raising his profile for the next general election. He might have been better off giving people more time to forget him.

Independent Labour: Nessa Childers, current MEP for East, which constituency is divided in two due to the reduction of seats from 12 to 11. Daughter of a senior Fianna Fáil minister and President from the time when FF were more than a collection of spivs, and granddaughter of the author of Riddle of the Sands. Formerly a local councillor for the Greens who switched to Labour before the 2009 elections, was elected as an MEP, and subsequently turned out to be too awkward a customer for the party leadership's tastes, raising objections to the elevation of a senior civil servant involved in the bank guarantee fiasco to a post in the European Court of Auditors and publicising threatening phone calls that she received from the then Dublin Labour MEP on the issue. Has been a critic of the party's performance in government from the left and resigned first from the parliamentary party and then from the party itself. Unlikely to be elected but may run the official Labour candidate close.

Reform Alliance: Peter Mathews, a banking and finance consultant who developed a profile as a media commentator during the banking crisis, and was head-hunted by FG and elected as a TD for Dublin South in 2011. Famously fond of the sound of his own voice, he manages the unusual combination of being both socially conservative and on the economic left of his former party (he described himself before 2011 as a "social democrat" and believes in the distribution of wealth to create a more equal society, which is not exactly a priority of the current incarnation of FG). Having annoyed the leadership of the party over the last three years by continuing to say - at great length - the same things that he'd said before becoming a TD rather than just shutting up and doing what he was told, he lost the party whip by voting against the abortion legislation last year, and subsequently resigned from the party. He is currently a member of the semi-detached Reform Alliance, led by the former junior minister Lucinda Creighton, but is unlikely to be happy in the longer term in a group whose intention seems to be to criticise FG from the right. Was briefly mentioned as a possible FF candidate, but is currently pondering an independent run.

Dublin is likely to pan out Hayes, Boylan, and probably Fitzpatrick (thanks to left-wing vote-shredding).

[Velasco]

I find it surprising that Equo has 2 MEPs in this poll, and that La Razón (whose director, Marhuenda, is called Rajuenda because he's in love with Rajoy) only has PP 2 points over PSOE.

It woudn't be 2 MEPs for Equo but 2 for the coalition between Equo, Compromís and Més (Balearic Islands), if such thing is going to happen. CHA, the Aragonese nationalists, may run in the IU list.  I'm not so oprimistic, I think that coalition may get a single seat, maybe shared between López de Uralde and some guy of the Valencian Nationalist Bloc. Let's see.

El Periódico de Catalunya (GESOP):

PP: 31.6% (19)
PSOE: 28.0% (17)
IU: 11.5% (7)
UPyD: 9.3% (5)
CEU: 5.2% (3)
EdP: 3.4% (2)
C’s: 3.1% (1)
Others: 7.9% (0)

[Tender Branson]

Pirates, Communists (KPÖ) and Der Wandel have signed their EP election alliance contract:



The name of the election alliance, the campaign team and the next steps (development of a joint election program) will be announced on Thursday.

A joint campaign launch convention will take place on March 1, where first candidate hearings will take place. Martin Ehrenhauser, currently a MEP, has already said that he supports this left-wing alliance. With his signature as MEP, the alliance wouldn't need to collect the 2600 signatures to be on the ballot for the EP election. But members from all 3 parties have said they will collect the signatures regardless to have/show citizen-support.

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20140203_OTS0132/pressegespraech-eu-wahlallianz-zwischen-kpoe-piraten-und-wandel-praesentiert-name-team-und-fahrplan

It will be interesting if they get beyond the 4% election threshold (they got only 2% in the federal elections).

Also, would they join the GUE/NGL after the election ?

[Yeahsayyeah]

From a German perspective it's hard to see much similarities between Pirates and Communists. So is there any reason for this beyond an attempt to pass the threshold. And could their EP members really satisfy all three groups?

[Tender Branson]

From a German perspective it's hard to see much similarities between Pirates and Communists. So is there any reason for this beyond an attempt to pass the threshold. And could their EP members really satisfy all three groups?

Mostly passing the threshold I think.

But the Pirates and the KPÖ share some common policies like the unconditional basic income.

[Cranberry]

They don't need to satisfy all three voter groups, because simply there won't be any.
The ÖVP will mostly likely return just 4 of the 19 MEP's.
The SPÖ maybe 4 or even just 3.
The FPÖ about 4 or even 5.
The Grüne most likely 3.
The NEOS 2.
And the other two - maybe one to Hans Peter Martin, and the other to Stronach? Or both an extra to FPÖ/SPÖ or ÖVP?

[sirius3100]

It will be interesting if they get beyond the 4% election threshold (they got only 2% in the federal elections).

But even if they pass the official 4% threshold it still isn't really sure whether they really get a seat: The threshold they really have to clear will probably be around 5% with Austria only having 18 seats and using D'Hondt as the seat allocation method.
So they have basically no chance of getting a seat. What I don't know: Is there are lower threshold to qualify for additional party funding, like we have it in Germany?

[Velasco]

Vox will join ECR propably ?
What about CC?

I know about nothing about Vox intentions with regard EP groups. If the party gets a seat, it will have to negotiate its affiliation. I guess the ultraconservative Libertad Digital is a reliable source in this case, and an article in that digital media says that the problem between Vox and the like-minded ECR group is the Euroescepticism of the latter, because Alejo Vidal-Quadras (nowadays PP MEP and soon joining Vox) is fiercely Europeist. According to Libertad Digital, Vidal-Quadras still feels as a member of the EPP.

Are you asking for the Canary Coalition? In 2009 CC ran with CiU, PNV and other parties in the Coalition for Europe (CEU). Canarian premier Paulino Rivero stated months ago that he intends to run with PNV and the latter thinks the coalition with CiU is "mandatory", although there have been rumours on a CiU/ERC coalition for the independence of Catalonia.

[Velasco]

Ciutadans use to be written as C's or Cs It's hard to say, because being social-liberal in theory the ALDE group is Cs natural home. They have the same problem that UPyD, which only MEP is currently unaffiliated. People in UPyD hope that after having an electoral success, ALDE could reconsider the affiliation of nationalist/regionalist Spanish parties in order that they can join. Despite Rosa Díez and Albert Rivera cool relationship, in that case I guess UPyD wouldn't consider C's uncompatible, as it occurs between the Rosa Díez party and the peripheral nationalists. If CiU, PNV or CC remain in ALDE, UPyD and C's won't join.

[Yeahsayyeah]

What "german gauche citizen activism group" are you thinking of? Pirates? And the preconditions to form a caucus/faction are seven states and 25 members. Where would they come from? Pirates will only have 2 to 4 MEP, and if the three percent threshold isn't declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court, it is possible, they don't make it at all.