German Elections & Politics

[jaichind]

Bloomberg news headline: SCHULZ: SPD COALITION W/MERKEL WOULD NEED MEMBER VOTE

[jaichind]

State poll for Bavaria:

Wow.  Just when one could not conceive of SPD going any lower.   
Question:  I was just compariing this poll to 2013 state election results and just realized that AfD did not run in 2013.  Any idea why ?  They got 4.2% in Bavaria a week later in the federal elections so it was worth a try.

[jaichind]

Supposing Groko fails and antipathy to a minotity government leads to another eletion this year. Is there any real chanece the results would lead to a situation that makes it any easier to form a coalition.

I mean, I can see some consolidation around the CDU, and FDP in particular getting punished in such as event (and potentially the SPD as well, they seem to be a in a lose-lose position right now). But how do you ever get over the line without either a grand coalition or a three party one?

Only way out is for enough voters to vote for CDU/CSU and FDP to get a majority of seats.  I have no idea where the votes will come from for this since Greens AfD and Linke will not fall below the 5% threshold.

[jaichind]

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/manipulation-in-der-marktforschung-wie-umfragen-gefaelscht-werden-a-1190711.html

Seems to say that several German polling companies have compromised scientific standards and used smaller samples than officially stated.  It mentions instances of respondents’ identities, IP addresses or time of survey being falsified.

[jaichind]

The GRAND Coalition has no majority anymore ... (47.5% vs. 48.5%):

If this is the result of the next election there will be massive pressure on FDP and Greens to join CDU/CSU into a government.  I guess if the trends last few election cycles and government formation continues like this we will eventually get to a place where it is  (AfD+Linke) > (CDU/CSU+SPD+FDP+Greene) 

[jaichind]

New Bayern state election (Oct. 14) poll by INSA for the "Bild":

34% CSU (-14%)
17% Greens (+8%)
14% AfD (+14%)
11% SPD (-10%)
10% FW (+1%)
  6% FDP (+3%)
  4% Left (+2%)
  4% Others (-4%)

Worst results ever for the CSU and the SPD in any Bavaria polling ...

Would FDP be willing to join a CSU government or will they coalition with a possible SPD-green coalition.

None of this has a majority.

The most likely scenario right now is that after their bad defeat, the CSU will chase out (= "in die Wüste schicken") Governor Söder and replace him with someone else (Ilse Aigner ?), who will then enter a coalition with the election winners - the Greens.

Why is CSU-FDP-FW not possible ?

[jaichind]

So which is more likely post-election: CSU-Green or CSU-FW-FDP ?

[jaichind]

I think this will be the first election where even a Grand Coalition is not enough for a majority ...

[jaichind]

I think this will be the first election where even a Grand Coalition is not enough for a majority ...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saxony-Anhalt_state_election,_2016

Ah .. forgot about that one.  Yes, no grand coalition majority is much more likely to be in the East given the relative strength of Left and AfD there ...

[jaichind]

CSU     33.3%
Greens 17.5%
AfD      14.5%
SPD     10.4%
FW        9.6%
FDP       6.1%
Linke     4.0%

[jaichind]

Any links to results?

[jaichind]

FW doing quite well

[jaichind]

SPD plus Greens plus Left is almost same as 2013

[jaichind]

The media reports this as some earthquake and humiliation ofCSU. But these results seem reasonable for CSU given AfD is going to run and get their low double digit vote share.  

[jaichind]

If the center left voter wanted to stop CSU-FW they should have tactically voted Linke

[jaichind]

CSU  ⟾ 200,000 Greens
CDU  ⟾ 180,000 AfD
CSU  ⟾ 180,000 FW

210,000 non-voters  ⟾ CSU

I think the main reason why the CSU both lost a lot of their voters to the Greens, FW and AfD - while also gaining a lot of former non-voters is because the 2013 election was during a time with a good economy (like now), but with no coalition troubles and infighting. Germans like consensus-politics and no fights, that's why the CSU lost their "center" voters to the other parties. On the other hand, more hardline voters on immigration who have never voted before, chose the CSU this time, because they think the AfD as too extreme ...

This is opposite of what i would have expected.

[jaichind]

So in the end it was CSU that over-performed pre-election polls.   I figured that would be Greens or AfD but it ended being CSU.

[jaichind]

This is shaping up to be an absolutely amazing result: CSU further ahead of the Union nationally than in 2013. Seehofer should be safe, all talk about CSU's rightward turn on immigration being a wrong decision will hopefully stop which should strengthen the CSU right's position both in Berlin and in Munich, a CSU-FW coalition can be formed, the SPD has been decimated, and the left gained zilch. Bavaria and Austria never disappoint.

Yep.  As much as I am aligned with AfD I always thought it was a mistake for CSU to try to co-op AfD on the premise that if you put out an imitation brand the people go with the genuine original brand every time.  Seems that this was not the case and the CSU contained the bleeding to AfD.   The CSU gain from non-voters is a shock.  I was certain they will all go AdD or Greens.

[jaichind]

It seems the SPD+Green+Linke vote share if anything fell from 2013. 

[jaichind]

Intermediate results after 34 out of 91 constituencies being counted (most of them in the eastern half of Bavaria, none in the three big cities as of yet):


All direct seats have gone to the CSU as of yet.

Nothing from München yet so the Green vote share should jump once results from there comes in.

[jaichind]

Still nothing from München

[jaichind]

What's the holdup with München and Nürnberg ?

[jaichind]

Why are FW so strong in Bavaria?  Is it related to Bavarian regionalism ?

[jaichind]

Bavaria’s Christian Social Union party’s campaign strategy flopped. Here’s what this means for Germany — and Europe.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/10/15/bavarias-christian-social-union-partys-campaign-strategy-flopped-heres-what-this-means-for-germany-and-europe/?utm_term=.2603635a5576

Has this guy looked at the 2017 Federal election results for Bavaria and compared them to last night

            2017        2018
CSU      38.8          37.2      -1.6
SPD      15.3           9,7       -5.6
Green     9.8         17.5      +7.7
FDP      10.2           5.1       -5.1
AfD       12.4         10.2      -2.2
FW         2.7         11.6      +8.9
Linke      6.1          3.2        -2.9
BP          0.8          2.1      +1.3
ÖDP       0.9           2.0      +1.1

CSU did reasonably well especially when FW was expected to do a lot better to grab Center-Right voters since in 2017 the 5% threshold meant the FW voter will vote tactically.  By the same logic Linke lost ground because the reverse logic relative to 2017 with respect to the 5% threshold.  SPD is the real loser here and you can argue FDP as well.  CSU strategy did not flop at all and in fact was an astounding success.

[jaichind]

Latest ZDP poll on Hesse (comparsion to 2013 results)

CDU    26
Green  22
SPD    20
AfD     12
FDP      8
Linke    8

Note sure CDU-Green will make it past majority.  Of course if that is out then it will have to be Green-SPD-Linke.