TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox) (user search)
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  TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox) (search mode)
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Author Topic: TN- Blackburn +5 (Fox)  (Read 9668 times)
lfromnj
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« on: January 13, 2019, 07:33:17 PM »

Stick a fork in Bredesen, and get ready for Majority Leader Turtle for another 2 years at least.
Wasn't this his prediction like every month since Bredesen entered?

Whoops.

TBF you probably shouldn't have called majority leader turtle because Texas was still an option for the Dems to win at that point.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1 on: January 14, 2019, 10:00:57 AM »

Stick a fork in Bredesen, and get ready for Majority Leader Turtle for another 2 years at least.
Wasn't this his prediction like every month since Bredesen entered?

Whoops.

TBF you probably shouldn't have called majority leader turtle because Texas was still an option for the Dems to win at that point.

If Republicans lost Texas and Florida, they would have still gotten 51 seats, and 2 more Democratic wins would have been needed in Indiana and Missouri, races they lost by nearly 6%(keeping in mind 2018 was already a pretty strongly Democratic year nationally), and by October the fundamentals were set that McCaskill or Donnelly weren't going to massively outrun the national environment and there wouldn't be a Democratic megatsunami. This is all with the benefit of hindsight ofc and the polls showed much closer races in those states which would make a 53-47 prediction seem too optimistic for the GOP, but it wasn't unreasonable to predict a GOP Senate or a Bredesen defeat given even then the odds looked dire for the Democrats.

yeah but Icespear never called MO and IN safe R. Infact it was assumed at that time IN and MO were tossups while ND TX and TN were the lean Rs although in reality only TX was Lean R.
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