2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is sickening.

You do know it's not Eday yet they're just polla not votes castes

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, I don't believe it, and it's still nine MNTHS till the Election, Morning Consult has Biden at 47 I seriously doubt Ukraine bombings is gonna go on forever, Rs are getting a temporary bump but an overwhelming bump and we don't have any WI, PA state by state polls and Fetterman was narrowly leading OZ I don't believe

These polls aren't to believe because we still have nine mnths and Rs are winning the GCB by ,49)41 their best night was 2014 and we lost IL R plus
Is it October no it's not, when has the Rs ever won the GCB by double digits never

You will be crying in your basement come November when Democrats will have big losses as will other Democrats. And your hyperbolic Predictions will be "Rebuked".

He’s OC so chill.

Lol when has the Rs ever won the GCB by 13 pts and we were the ones that won 80M votes in a VBM election not same day vote unlike Rs, it's only March, 22 not Nov 22, if the Rs win the GCB by 13 I would be shocked ..it's not over when you he polls say so it's over when we count votes we thought Trump won and he lost, Lol

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Monmouth National Poll has Biden at 39/55 JA, the Right Track/Wrong Track Number at 20/72

BUT the GCB at 46/46

Give me a break! What is Monmouth and their Pollster Patrick Murray fabricating here? Unbelievable!

Democrats are not going to overperform Bidens Number by 7 Points Nationally.

There's a very clear pattern here with the liberal media and university polls (Quinnipiac, Monmouth, Ipsos, YouGov, etc.). They overwhelmingly overestimated Biden's margins in the 2020 elections. They had overwhelming numbers of approval in his early presidency (55-62%), but now they have very low numbers of approval for Biden (like the accurate pollsters) but either statistically tied or Democrats leading in the generic ballot. Their independents are clearly too metropolitan and liberal (and they underrepresent Republicans in many cases). You still see some polls (like Marist with their "Biden bump") showing a D+6 electorate. The 2020 election was a D+1 electorate. The days of D+4 or more are over, but especially for this midterm.

Let's just say that I'm looking at a pollster I trust right now and they have a very similar Biden approval but their generic ballot is dramatically more Republican. Again, common sense, does it make sense that a president in the low 40's in approval would tie or win the generic ballot vote in a midterm? Has that ever happened in the modern era?

I trust Trafalgar Poll a lot. They nailed VA & NJ Governor Races! They had WI, MI, PA way tighter than other Polls in the 2020 Race.

NBC Exit Poll 2014 had Obama at 44 % JA Nationally / House Vote was 45,5 % Nationally that year for the Democrats.

NBC Exit Poll 2018 had Trump at 45 % JA Nationally / House Vote was 44,8 % Nationally that year for Republicans.

So YES, usually the President JA and the National House Vote tracking very close together.

Also, the new WSJ Poll seems ok too.

Lol, Trump held onto the Senate at 40/57 Approvals it's still a 303/ 235 map Rs don't want to admit that but Biden is at 47 percent  47/39 v Trump not ,39 percent like QU want them to be

Do you know how bad unemployment was in 2010 it was 11 percent

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Even if Biden winds up with the same Approvals as Obama it's not 11 percent unemployment that's why you have Crist leading and Dejear only 8 pts down, Trump won with 40/57 Approvals due to fact it was Full Employment, Rs never talk about Trump atrouseous approvals in 2018 and he still kept the S and they talk about OBAMA with 11 percent unemployment


I am changing my prediction back to a D Nut map if Trump can keep the S with 40/57 Approvals Biden can win the Trifecta at 47 percent Approvals now and it's nine mnths til EDay

Plse stop Preempt the vote let the votes count

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx


Since 2016 want to keep fishing out Obama Approvals in 11% unemployment and lost Congress here are the Trump atrocious approvals on Nov 4th in  Full employment in 2018 40/54 and he kept OH, IA FL and TX Gov and Senate, but since he was at 40/57 not 47/39 Trump lost the H, we will keep the Trifecta  Biden is already leading Trump 47/39 not the 39% Approvaks that Civiq or QU or Rassy points out

The Rs may have to win the Popular vote they haven't done since 2014 I'm order to beat Crist, Ryan Beasley there are still no polls in WI, PA, NC and OH

We already went thru this with Vaccinated Bear he never compared Trump but always compared Biden to Obama and Biden Approvals still aren't done it's March not October

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There's a very clear pattern here with the liberal media and university polls (Quinnipiac, Monmouth, Ipsos, YouGov, etc.). They overwhelmingly overestimated Biden's margins in the 2020 elections. They had overwhelming numbers of approval in his early presidency (55-62%), but now they have very low numbers of approval for Biden (like the accurate pollsters) but either statistically tied or Democrats leading in the generic ballot. Their independents are clearly too metropolitan and liberal (and they underrepresent Republicans in many cases). You still see some polls (like Marist with their "Biden bump") showing a D+6 electorate. The 2020 election was a D+1 electorate. The days of D+4 or more are over, but especially for this midterm.

Let's just say that I'm looking at a pollster I trust right now and they have a very similar Biden approval but their generic ballot is dramatically more Republican. Again, common sense, does it make sense that a president in the low 40's in approval would tie or win the generic ballot vote in a midterm? Has that ever happened in the modern era?

Ah, the old I don't like the results so they must be wrong arguement.

Ok, well have fun believing the generic ballot is a toss-up. I'll be laughing all the way until November.

A polling error similar to 2020 means right now is a political environment of around R+7, about where I would expect.

Tie generic ballot = R lead

Bystander doesn't realize that Trump kept the Senate with 40/57 Approvals and Biden is leading Trump in a Prez Election 47/39

It's not over until the votes are casted not based on Approvals it's a 303/235 map Whitmer, SISOLAK, Evers and Shapiro have 50 PERCENT approvals, it's not Biden Approvals it's The D Approvals

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why  bother with these Approvals Biden was leading Trump 48/45 in Rassy in 20 daily tracking polls and right now Biden leads Trump 47/39 it's the same darn  map, but instead of D's blaming COVID on Trump RS are blaming COVID on Biden and Trp didn't wear a darn mask

You can put up 2010 47)47 Approvals to justify an R wave but Biden is Even in the polls if he is at 47/47 going in 2022 we are gonna win the blue wall not red wall states

Yes, the RS think they're advantage because of the Ukraine war but they're not it's just reaffirms the oil states v green energy states TX,  is am oil state, WI, CA are Green state

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nate Silver said the Rs aren't dominating I'm the state by state polls compared to Biden Approvals on You tube and something is up with FL why is Crist doing EXCEEDINGLY WELL ABD GAETZ IS LOSING, SOMETHING IS UP AND BIDEN IS AT 40 PERCEBT IN QU polls but ahead of Trump 47/39

This is the samething happened to Biden when he ran as Veeo to Obama, ran in Primary and won 2020 Maricopa county Rs underestimating  Biden and Biden helped Obama win NC and IN in 2008

This is not your average 2010/2014 cycle and Crist is doing EXCEEDINGLY well with 11 percent unemployment and unpopular Obamacare that swept Rs to victory in 2010/14


D's have 15 Latino/15 Blk/20 percent non Evangelical females and young white men that gives D's 50 and 5 percent undecidef and 40 percent Evangelical particularly older white men that's a 303 map without the polls right there and it's gonna be a 135 M turnout not 110 M that's high turnout

The lion share of the vote lies with Blks and minorities and females

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The issue that is dogging Biden even though these are April not Nov numbers is that there is still COVID he was supposed to end COVID and didn't


Biden found out it wasn't a US problem it's a Worldwide problem you have to end it with everyone not just in the US, abd he still let's illegals in thru the Border

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The actual issue is that the economy/inflation and foreign policy are becoming bigger issues while coronavirus is becoming a smaller issue. Biden's approval on both foreign policy and economy/inflation are significantly lower than COVID(-20.1 and -17 compared to +1). Due to this, if foreign policy and economy are talked about more, Biden's and the Democrat's numbers goes down.

This is why I am very pessimistic about 2022. The GDP forecasts just keeps getting downgraded and the inflation forecast just keeps on extending.(like, it went from ending in 2020 to not even ending by the end of 2023) The Fed is projecting 4.3% inflation for 2022 throughout 2022. That is a recipe for a Republican landslide.

Additionally, inflation/economy and foreign policy/national defense is a historically Republican favored issue which are R+8 and R+29 issues in a neutral environment. The Democrats talking more about those issues causes their numbers to go down on average just because people trust Republicans more than Democrats on those issues.

Did you know Trump netted seats twice in 2o18 40/54 in the S and netted H seats with 43/54 Approvals per Gallup because the vote total in 2020 was 75 M and it was only like 40 M votes D's had on 2010

So D's aren't gonna lose and we are gonna net Gov mansions in MA and MD that's not 43 Approvals

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The issue that is dogging Biden even though these are April not Nov numbers is that there is still COVID he was supposed to end COVID and didn't


Biden found out it wasn't a US problem it's a Worldwide problem you have to end it with everyone not just in the US, abd he still let's illegals in thru the Border

This isn’t really true, the poll has him above water on covid while getting hammered on everything else including economy, foreign policy, and border security. This actually dispels the fake idea that covid was the only thing keeping Dems from a 2002 style unity midterm. The only thing still hurting him regarding covid is the memory of the Omicron chaos leading to a general opinion of incompetence, but Dems are likely actually being helped in this poll by having given up on lockdown culture.

Something interesting is the American favorability towards confirming judges. The population seems to generally approve of confirmation regardless of who it is, and maybe wants to keep politics out of the process.

Are you a moderator or  YE or pbower2A whom are experts in the Election no you aren't you are a user like me, your opinions aren't factual Trump netted H seats in 2020 at 43/54 Approvaks and we won the Cali recall with Biden low Approvals

Users trying to be moderators or Experts on the Election just because they make R Nut maps and Trump netted H seats per Gallup at 43)54 Approvaks

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So you little Olowakandi,
NBC is now showing Republicans with their first GCB lead since 2014 (46-44) and Bidens JA down to 40 %.

RED WAVE Incoming!!!

Trump netted Seats at 43(54 Approvals, these were Gallup final Approval n 2020 who cares what they show you criticize Biden and Trump had the same APPROVALS IS IT NOVEMBER NO ITS APRIL I AM NOT WORRIED


As far as I am concerned it's a 303 Map anyways these are the same recycled 39% Approvals that we had during the Debt Ceiling fight


It's Garland fault if we lose he acts like if Biden loses it affects us no it doesn't Trump is ginning for Decertified of Biden in WI, PA and WI but that's all we need to win anyways

Garland refuses to Prosecute Trump can we lose yes, is it likely no because on Hillary lost the Blue wall on a split verdict with Gary Johnson, 50K votes in WI, MI and PA first time since 1988

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's probably a Divided House no matter whom is in control and a  D Senate nothing in these ApprovaLs changes the fact that's it's a 303/235 map it can be as high as 335 FL, NC or as low as 270 but it means 270 WI, PA and MI , with turnout of 65/60 M or higher we can overcome these low Approvals

It's gonna be the same in 24 anyways it's just a matter if we can create enough wave insurance to keep the Senate D so the Rs can't decertify Biden in 24 , thru 26, including Collins defeat the Rs are the Dogs in the Senate 22/24)26 S not H maps follow the Blue wall

There is no way Trump is gonna gain back WI, PA and MI as a reelected Insurrectionists

Not ending the Pandemic was always gonna drag down Biden Approvals, but the vaccine didn't end the virus it contained or managed it like all vaccines do we need an HIV vaccine or Herpes one ASAPt

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The future looks very grim indeed.

Lol Election Guy doesnt quote Trump net gained seats in 2018/20 when Trump was at 44% we are very far from 2014 where Election turnout was 82M it's 125M big difference I keep telling you this over and Over and Snowlabrador Dooming is already getting rid

Every election isn't the same or we Ds would have gotten 413 maps in 2018/20 when Trump has the exact same Approvals instead we got 303Maos


Lol 2010/2014 aren't the same as 18)20/22 we only had same day vote 82M v 125 M that's why Trump overperformed 44 Approvals in 20 Rs got 75 M votes we still got above that 80 M Election Guy isn't an analyst on NBC news he would be there not making R nut post on Atlas , a free non for profit website

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What happened to that R Generic ballot lead R plus 3 well Kelly is ahead Rs surely want him to lose, but to who Masters and Brnovich aren't that well known like Kelly, Sinema and Gallego and McCain and Ducey that's why Katie Hobbs has a chance whom is Lake she isn't Ducey

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ducey was already losing to Kelly Kelly was ahead 50/47 against both of them Brnovich and Ducey, Rs did no favors by censuring Ducey

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Ds aren't a Mess Biden won 50/45 not 60/40 and he is 46/49 APPROVALS, not trash tier QU it's a 303/235 map and under a 303 Map we lost seats last time in the H, Cook has the H going R due to TX plus 5 net R seats and Cook has S as a Tossup, Johnson is not safe due to fact he won only by 200K votes like all the 306 seats were within 200K votes

I keep telling users that Biden Approvals are on par with his narrow winning 2020 46/49 in You Gov today and he won narrowly 50/45 and it's on April not Nov


If Rs were doing so well they would be leading in OR and Betsy Johnson is mounting a third party campaign Betsy Johnson is winning not Rs, she will win a VBM campaign of about 500 votes over Tina Kotek she won't win by a landslide like CANTWELL win a VBM campaign by 500 votes

If the Election were held today it would be a 51/47 Senate and GA will go to a Runoff and LA could  and probably lose 8 seats in H Pappas and Golden will both win, Golden overperformed Mills, 🛑 thinking Biden won 60/40 he won 50/45 like his 46/49 users overthink his Approvaks because last yr Biden was at 57 due to 2K checks well thanks to Ukraine stimulus money is going there instead of here

Trump can't win again I'd he doesn't have RGovs in WI, MI PA that's all Biden needs to get reelected and there are no polls in them

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden was nearing 50 percent Approvaks during the SOTU and Putin launched an undeclared war on Ukraine and the gas prices went up, Putin didn't launch the war be ause of Election Yr but it sure helps the Rs with Gas prices going to 8.00;@ gallon


As far as everything bad happening to Ds, we don't have the results yet can Rs hold their horses before they down the D's before the results are in, we Ds downed Trump because even after the shellacking in 2018 he still was under 50 even at Full Employment

But, Hollywood fails to realize Biden has the same exact Approvals as Trump, and Rs keep complaining, it takes one to know one because Trump never got above 50 percent even during his Honeymoon, Biden was at least 55 percent as soon as Trump got into office he was at 43 oercent

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FWIW Cook has moved 8 races rightward to either lean D or tossup, and Amy Walters said R’s have very little chance of not taking the house

Congratulations 47th President Trump in that case. I used to want to move to Canada, but the UK or Australia may be a better option, to be further from the US.

I'm pretty bullish on Trump's 2024 chances, but a bad midterm for an incumbent doesn't necessarily mean losing re-election. What it does mean is that Biden will have to completely change his approach to everything in his last two years and somehow turn the political environment around.

Except that Republicans taking the House and swing state Governorships means they can overturn the election if a Democrat wins.

Lol you are a DOOMER, DID YOU SEE THE SISOLAK NV POLL SHOWING SISOLAK UP BY 46/33 NO BUT YOU POSTED CCM DOWN BY 7 TO LAXALT, AND YOU IGNORED THE OTHER POLL SHOWING CCM UP 42/34 ON LAXALT

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NV poll clearly shows that D's can still win the Midterms SISOLAK is up 46)33 just like CCM is ahead of Laxalt NC IA a wave insurance seat but Beasley was down 7 50)43 not 20

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 303/238 map anyways the MI, WI and Pa there hasn't been any polling for went down to the wire last time and we won them all by 50K votes by Provisional ballots Anyways Rs THINKING ITS GONNA BE A Total WIPEOUT ITS NOT HAPPENING .. DeSantis may cost Rs the H he underpolled a Socialist Andrew Gillum, he isn't winning by 12

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obviously, it's an R wave right now

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Even if D's lose we have a Quick turnaround in 2024 anyways where the Prez Candidate has a stronger chance of carrying D's in Congress than in a Midterm Election anyways but we know Cali, IL, NY are gonna be safe D ALWAYS

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Don't believe these polls, which I don't we have to wait till we vote where are the state by state poll they're not giving it to us

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't think anyone's posted these national polls:

Emerson (4/25-26)
R 47
D 41

Susquehanna (4/19-27)
R 49
D 39

With the inclusion of these and the new Marist poll, the 538 average is up to R+ 2.7 and RCP is R +4.7. Both are the new high marks for the cycle I believe

You believe that too and we haven't voted yet WHERE ARE THE PA, WI MI, MN, NM, KS and ME POLLS

WARNOCK is up 5

I AM NOT SAYING D'S ARENT IN TROUBLE WE GOTTA VOTE NOT POLLS TELLING US HOW TO VOTE  Without state by state polls you can believe anything