PA-Morning Call/Muhlenberg College: Clinton +9

[ApatheticAustrian]

He doesn't need. Current states with the advantage plus either Wisconsin or Colorado wins it for him.

taking which numbers? 538/RCP-average? ^^

[ApatheticAustrian]

can't imagine that clinton would lose WI without proto-liberal feingold losing too and that seems like a no-go anyway.

feingold is going to energize the fringle-liberal part of the elecotorate for sure and WI republicans seemed to hate trump for a long time...looks like the swallowed him more or less but i am not so sure about their motivation level.

[ApatheticAustrian]

538.

their recent map doesn't really look like your scenario.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

[ApatheticAustrian]

in fact, a tied poll wouldn't surprise me at all....especially since this poll here is the other kind of "outlier" and marist seems to see half the country tied.

[ApatheticAustrian]

in fact the polls alone can't be the reason why all eyes are on PA since the polls look closer in MI and WI since quite some time but no republican seems to really but it.


after the trump-leaning vermont and good old republican utah i am pretty sure we are going to see a poll this cycle which brings about any state into anyone's reach.

[ApatheticAustrian]

it's like illinois on a smaller scale...there are theoretically enough votes to kill phillie and some areas of the country are going red and becoming redder but it's a lot harder than in ohio and republicans didn't really shine regarding GOTV in comparison.

[ApatheticAustrian]

this election is my personal sequel to the endless drama of my own austrian presidential election last spring, which was the most intense nail-biter which my country (and i myself) has ever endured (and is getting repeated next december cause of the great public demand)......

i have tried for years to understand the US of A and its political system and now have realized, all those pretty rules are meant to be broken and all polling logic must be forgotten for this hellish rollercoaster.....

as a political geek i can't decide if this is heaven, hell or both....but i am pretty sure, ohio and PA won't be won by the same candidate this time.

[ApatheticAustrian]

SKIP
LOL, "great public demand" ?
More because "the FPÖ challenged the original result and the High Court ruled in favour" ...
SKIP

pardon, i think i need a kind of sarcasm tag. in fact, i am pretty sure the demand for a december election is so low that the turnout will invent new bottoms to drop at.