What issue will hurt G. Bush the most?

[Brambila]

Job loss? What? We have the lowest unemployment rate since Reagan!

I think Diplomacy will hurt him a bit. Even though it shouldn't matter.

[Brambila]

Job loss? What? We have the lowest unemployment rate since Reagan!

Not sure where you get your #'s but here's a government resource ....

http://data.bls.gov/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=latest_numbers&series_id=LNS14000000

If you go in there and extend the query back to 1980 you will find that the lowest unemployment rate since Reagan came at the end of the Clinton administration when it was 3.9%.  Since then it has been on a steady increase.

That's odd... I was almost positive it was...

Well at any rate, the unemployment rate is very low right now, and is one of the lowest since Reagan. What's interesting is that in 2000 when the unemployment rate was low, the stock market went way down. I suppose my point should have been that we've had the strongest economy since Reagan, including unemployment. I mean, Clinton's highest point was at the end of 1999, and then it crumbled in 2000, especially in the internet industry.

[Brambila]

Job loss? What? We have the lowest unemployment rate since Reagan!

Not sure where you get your #'s but here's a government resource ....

http://data.bls.gov/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=latest_numbers&series_id=LNS14000000

If you go in there and extend the query back to 1980 you will find that the lowest unemployment rate since Reagan came at the end of the Clinton administration when it was 3.9%.  Since then it has been on a steady increase.

That's odd... I was almost positive it was...

Well at any rate, the unemployment rate is very low right now, and is one of the lowest since Reagan. What's interesting is that in 2000 when the unemployment rate was low, the stock market went way down. I suppose my point should have been that we've had the strongest economy since Reagan, including unemployment. I mean, Clinton's highest point was at the end of 1999, and then it crumbled in 2000, especially in the internet industry.

I disagree with your statement that "unemployment is very low right now".  That is not true.  The Feb unemployment # was 5.6%.  Since 1948 the avg unemployment in America is 5.6%.  However, unemployment has been on the rise since the end of 2000.  If the unemployment rate continues to rise through this Summer then Bush will lose this election.  If it falls he will be reelected.

The economy is going to be the biggest factor in this election.

It's been rising since the end of 2000 (Clinton was still in office...), true, but that is largely due to the internet crash (which happened around April of 2000). Also, since the end of 2003 the unemployment rate has been falling.

[Brambila]

Well, technically the unemployment rate started climbing in Jan of 2001.  We can spend all day arguing the who's, how's, and why's of it.  The reality is that unless declines throughout 2004, Bush will lose the election.

Right now we hear about an economic recovery.  And I sincerely hope that  there is one.  But 2 months really isn't an economic recovery.  This administration has talked a lot about other things (health care, education, and WMD's).  I've learned to wait until I see results to believe them.

Even if it did begin climbing in January of 2001, it couldn't have possibly been Bush's fault. But you're correct- this is in itself a completely different debate with not revelence to the issue. The point is Bush has promised a recovery, and for once the economy is recovering. It will, according to economists, grow steadily.

[Brambila]

It took Clinton 6 years to recover the economy, and he had lower approval ratings than Bush (42% was his lowest, it was in 1993 or 4. Bush's lowest was a 46 or 47). Don't expect the economy growth to be so sudden.

[Brambila]

He has a similar strategy to Reagan's and Bush's after Carter was in office- with inflation rate at 18%, if you can remember that. Reagan's obviously worked, and Bush Sr. continued it onto Clinton's administration.