Benenson Research Group (D)- Ford expands lead to six points.

[poughies]

http://haroldfordjr2006.blogspot.com/

http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7079/1320/1600/poll1.1.jpg

http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7079/1320/1600/poll2.jpg

[DownWithTheLeft]

While I am pulling for Harold Ford Jr., this is an internal poll

[poughies]

an internal poll that matches with other polling.... and internal polling that shows Ford gaining momentum (though can u gain it if u continue to have it?).... as it was 2 points last month. I would expect other polling to come out and show Ford with a 3-6 point lead.... just my belief.

[Sam Spade]

an internal poll that matches with other polling.... and internal polling that shows Ford gaining momentum (though can u gain it if u continue to have it?).... as it was 2 points last month. I would expect other polling to come out and show Ford with a 3-6 point lead.... just my belief.

Uh, how does it match with other polling?  You do understand how polling works, don't you?

[ATFFL]

Their undecideds are high compared to other polling of the race. 

If the public internal says he is up 6, the private one probably says he is up 1.

[poughies]

Other polling showing Ford has got the momentum-

Last mouth- this same polling outfit had Ford up 2
Rasmussen had the race close from 13 to 6 to 1.
Survey usa had Ford for up 3.

As I said matching other polling that shows Ford has complete momentum.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Why do Dems get so excited over this, but try to ignore that Kean has lead the last SIX polls!  Certainly Kean is in better shape as no polling agencies have him down, but it seems like a lot of Dems feel he's destin to go down.

[Sam Spade]

Other polling showing Ford has got the momentum-

Last mouth- this same polling outfit had Ford up 2
Rasmussen had the race close from 13 to 6 to 1.
Survey usa had Ford for up 3.

As I said matching other polling that shows Ford has complete momentum.

So, in other words, by November 7, Ford will be up by 20, right?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I doubt Ford is up by 6 but I think he is up but still you must consider the conservative tilt of the state. I still think that Corker probably will win.

[Nym90]

6? Wow. Obviously this isn't an accurate poll, but it's still a good sign for the Democrats no matter how much you spin it.

[poughies]

Oh for god shakes.... Clearly not. Rather I'm saying that this pollling is in line with other polling that says Ford has momentum. And I am not one who says that Kean isn't in the lead or at least tied. Ford is tied or ahead... and anyone who has this race lean republican isn't paying attention. Corker may win (I don't believe he will), but he isn't winning right now.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Oh for god shakes.... Clearly not. Rather I'm saying that this pollling is in line with other polling that says Ford has momentum. And I am not one who says that Kean isn't in the lead or at least tied. Ford is tied or ahead... and anyone who has this race lean republican isn't paying attention. Corker may win (I don't believe he will), but he isn't winning right now.

I disagree:

Kean is tied or ahead, Ford is right about tied

NJ leans GOP, this is a tossup, you have it right there

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Like you said Ford is tied or statistically tied, I think that internals inflate the lead. I think Ford is within the margin of error. Ford may very well win but due to the conserv tilt of the state Corker is still favored. But this is a tossup, it can go either way.

[poughies]

Sorry bad grammar. I think Kean is tied or in the lead.

[Sam Spade]

Oh for god shakes.... Clearly not. Rather I'm saying that this pollling is in line with other polling that says Ford has momentum. And I am not one who says that Kean isn't in the lead or at least tied. Ford is tied or ahead... and anyone who has this race lean republican isn't paying attention. Corker may win (I don't believe he will), but he isn't winning right now.

I didn't know God shook.

My point is simply to take your logic (of momentum leading to potential result) and apply it to its natural conclusion.  If you don't like the conclusion, perhaps you should amend your logic.

I have not made any statements about where I think the race lies from reading this publicly released internal poll.  Others can make that comment.  Nor have I compared anything to New Jersey, because last time I checked New Jersey was a different state than Tennessee.

[poughies]

ahahahahhahahaha god sake..... No, but if the glove fits, then he is guilty. Ford has momentum. This same group of polling suggested Ford with a Ford lead late last month. Within two weeks, two polls came out that had Ford up 3 and down 1. This new poll comes out with ford up 6. I'm merely saying that it would make mighty sense if some other polls come out with Ford in the lead..... I don't think he is up six. I think its closer to three. That's just me....

[Sam Spade]

ahahahahhahahaha god sake..... No, but if the glove fits, then he is guilty. Ford has momentum. This same group of polling suggested Ford with a Ford lead late last month. Within two weeks, two polls came out that had Ford up 3 and down 1. This new poll comes out with ford up 6. I'm merely saying that it would make mighty sense if some other polls come out with Ford in the lead..... I don't think he is up six. I think its closer to three. That's just me....

You do realize this is an internal poll, with the caveats that an internal poll has.  Am I going to have to flag Vorlon in on this one?

[Adlai Stevenson]

As it is an internal poll surely they would have made more of an effort to put Ford over the 50% line?  According to Benenson Research Group he leads 45%-39%; we know internal polling needs to be taken with scruples but surely a Ford 50%-44% lead or something along those lines would make him look better?  The fact the company claims 16% of Tennesseeans are undecided seems unlikely.

[poughies]

Well I clearly do as i put (D) in the title. But just because it is an interal, it doesn't mean that we throw out. If we see that other polls have showed Ford with the momentum including a survey usa that had him up 3 two weeks ago, then how is a 6 point lead such a jump (especially with his church and illegal immigrant ads). Sure, I would prefer to see a non-partisan poll that shows Ford up by 6, but Mason-Dixon hasn't taken a poll here.

My real question is, why hasn't Corker released an internal poll?

And as for undecideds, most telephone polls usually have a higher number... Maybe they didn't include leaners? I don't know....

[Democratic Hawk]

Ford ahead by 6, (D) pollsters. Possibly 1 or 2, maybe 3. See if this is confirmed by non-partisan pollsters

Dave

[poughies]

I expect (and could be wrong) to see other polls come out showing Ford with a slight lead.... it fits the pattern. Watch me be wrong.

[Eraserhead]

This one could go down to the wire. I doubt Ford is up six but he is most likely a couple points ahead. I can see it now...Dems win PA, MT, OH, RI,MO and even TN and then lose NJ of all places! Christ. When does the next VA poll come out?

[Eraserhead]

I expect (and could be wrong) to see other polls come out showing Ford with a slight lead.... it fits the pattern. Watch me be wrong.

SUSA already had their last TN poll with him in the lead (+3) and Rasmussen's last poll had him only a point behind so its certainly a reasonable prediction. I doubt he will be up 6 in them though.

[RJ]

Why do Dems get so excited over this, but try to ignore that Kean has lead the last SIX polls! 

Even I can answer that one. No one cares if Menendez loses while everyone under the sun thinks the world of Ford. Besides, do you really trust NJ to elect a Republican anything???

There are 2 things everyone is overlooking: 1) Bredesen will win his reelection easily and 2) TN isn't as conservative leaning as you might think. The state house there is Democratic(or split 50-50).

[poughies]

I expect (and could be wrong) to see other polls come out showing Ford with a slight lead.... it fits the pattern. Watch me be wrong.

SUSA already had their last TN poll with him in the lead (+3) and Rasmussen's last poll had him only a point behind so its certainly a reasonable prediction. I doubt he will be up 6 in them though.

What i have been trying to say. Its a "logical" poll..... I believe he is more up in the area of 3 myself, but this poll isn't crazy. Plus expect some help from the governor..... and the state while conservative, is really more a conservative dem state.... kinda like New Hampshire is more a more liberal republican state than it is a democratic state....