NYT/Siena: Perdue +3, Loeffler +4 in GA, Greenfield +2 in IA, Cornyn +6 in TX

[VAR]

GA-R
Perdue 41%
Ossoff 38%
Hazel 5%

GA-S
Loeffler 23%
Collins 19%
Warnock 19%
Lieberman 7%
Tarver 4%

IA
Greenfield 42%
Ernst 40%
Stewart 2%
Herzog 2%

TX
Cornyn 43%
Hegar 37%
McKennon 4%

Favorabilities:
Perdue 47/34 (+13)
Ossoff 39/34 (+5)
Ernst 45/45 (=)
Greenfield 45/38 (+7)
Cornyn 45/28 (+17)
Hegar 33/15 (+18)

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/ga-ia-tx-crosstabs/ca61e64eaef883ac/full.pdf

[MillennialModerate]

As I said a long time ago. Georgia is not going blue in any statewide race period.

It’s a 52/48 state but it holds hard and fast to that. It’s not going blue. Period.

[Stuart98]

As I said a long time ago. Georgia is not going blue in any statewide race period.

It’s a 52/48 state but it holds hard and fast to that. It’s not going blue. Period.

It's a bit hasty to say that when 16% are undecided and Perdue's only up 3.

[WD]

As I said a long time ago. Georgia is not going blue in any statewide race period.

It’s a 52/48 state but it holds hard and fast to that. It’s not going blue. Period.

Imagine unironically believing this.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Too many undecided.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

September 16-21

GA
523 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

Regular
Not voting for Senate 0%
Someone else 0%
Don't know/refused 16%

Special
Not voting for Senate 1%
Don't know/refused 27%

IA
501 likely voters
MoE: 4.99%

Not voting for Senate 1%
Someone else 0%
Don't know/refused 14%

TX
653 likely voters
MoE: 4.3%

Not voting for Senate 2%
Someone else 0%
Don't know/refused 14%

[Pericles]

Cornyn is only outrunning* Trump by 2 points in this poll-MJ Hegar can win.

*More like there's more undecideds, his actual vote share is 3 points lower than Trump's

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said a long time ago. Georgia is not going blue in any statewide race period.

It’s a 52/48 state but it holds hard and fast to that. It’s not going blue. Period.

What? Its going to a runoff, scenario, anything can happen in a runoff, should Trump lose

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Too many undecided.

Won't stop a certain Millennial from screaming "GA is fools gold" ad naseum

[Stuart98]

Too many undecided.

Won't stop a certain Millennial from screaming "GA is fools gold" ad naseum

Something something it just isn't there yet

[wbrocks67]

Way too many undecideds, but judging from the crosstobs, Ossoff can win in GA. Not sure if he can take 50%, but he could definitely win with the right turnout. Surprised at Perdue's high fav, since he seems rather unknown.

IA... Ernst is in trouble. That race has a ridiculous # of undecideds but with Biden winning the prez race too right now, and Ernst's fav being the same as in the DMR poll (net +0) versus Greenfield's positive fav, along with her being at 40% as an incumbent... very bad news for her.

[SnowLabrador]

I think the GOP wins all four races. Polling in IA underestimates Republicans, that's a known thing.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think the GOP wins all four races. Polling in IA underestimates Republicans, that's a known thing.

Anything can happen if Trump loses and GA goes to a runoff

[We Live in Black and White]

As I said a long time ago. Georgia is not going blue in any statewide race period.

It’s a 52/48 state but it holds hard and fast to that. It’s not going blue. Period.

How's Senator Joe Kennedy doing, buddy?

[redjohn]

Pouring a lot of resources into IA is important. It'll be seat #51 for Democrats in the Senate if they can pick it up, and it'll relieve a lot of headaches (dealing with Manchin and other conservative Democrats on votes). GA-Sen is probably not happening this time, but I don't think we can write it off. GA was a tight race in 2018 and it'll be even tighter this time; under the right conditions, Ossoff can win.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Cornyn is only outrunning* Trump by 2 points in this poll-MJ Hegar can win.

*More like there's more undecideds, his actual vote share is 3 points lower than Trump's

If Cornyn outruns Trump by 2 points in Texas , Cornyn is basically guaranteed re-election.

[KaiserDave]

Tarver and Lieberman need to go away

[WD]

This is not a good poll for the GOP. Cornyn isn’t actually outperforming Trump, he’s getting 43% of the vote vs Trump’s 46%. Not to mention the undecideds seem to Lean D as is with most TX polls this cycle. In GA, being at 41% as an incumbent is a bad position and given that the undecided seem to be split, it’ll be close to the end.

 In IA, Greenfield is doing pretty good, winning 11% of Republicans, which explains why she’s outrunning Biden by a substance amount and that this isn’t a case like NC-Sen, where most of the undecideds are Rs who haven’t come home yet, you have genuine crossover votes in this race. Whether that holds up, remains to be seen. As for the runoff, Warnock seems to be making up ground and I think it’s unlikely that it will be R vs R in January. Overall, these are all Tossup/Tilt R races and I expect Democrats to pull off a win in atleast one of them (maybe more if they’re having a really good night)

[Skill and Chance]

GA suddenly looking up for Dems.  Repeatedly tied at the top of the ticket and Warnock is likely to make it through after all.  Ossoff could plausibly win on election night if Dems fare well, and a double runoff would create an opportunity to flip the senate after the fact in the event of a surprise Trump win. 

[tagimaucia]

I'm still a bit nervous about the GA special, but honestly, Warnock has seemingly enough momentum and room to grow at this point that I'd probably rather be him than either of the Republican candidates right now? (In terms of making the top two that is, I have no clue what would actually happen in a runoff).

[Skill and Chance]

I'm still a bit nervous about the GA special, but honestly, Warnock has seemingly enough momentum and room to grow at this point that I'd probably rather be him than either of the Republican candidates right now? (In terms of making the top two that is, I have no clue what would actually happen in a runoff).

Loeffler leaned so far into lowbrow populism that it scrambled the race, but Collins losing ground is good for the Dems most likely, because 1. he is easier to overtake than the high name rec incumbent for the 2nd runoff spot and 2. Loeffler has compromised her standing with swing voters in an R vs. D runoff

[wbrocks67]

I'm still a bit nervous about the GA special, but honestly, Warnock has seemingly enough momentum and room to grow at this point that I'd probably rather be him than either of the Republican candidates right now? (In terms of making the top two that is, I have no clue what would actually happen in a runoff).

Loeffler leaned so far into lowbrow populism that it scrambled the race, but Collins losing ground is good for the Dems most likely, because 1. he is easier to overtake than the high name rec incumbent for the 2nd runoff spot and 2. Loeffler has compromised her standing with swing voters in an R vs. D runoff

This. If the runoff becomes Warnock/Loeffler, then it's a true tossup. Loeffler has not done herself any favors with this primary right now.

[tagimaucia]

I'm still a bit nervous about the GA special, but honestly, Warnock has seemingly enough momentum and room to grow at this point that I'd probably rather be him than either of the Republican candidates right now? (In terms of making the top two that is, I have no clue what would actually happen in a runoff).

Also don't know if its an isolated thing, but a *ton* of Warnock signs just suddenly sprouted up (almost all of them in just the last week) in my parents' mostly white Romney +11/Hillary +19 suburban DeKalb county neighborhood.  I could see a pretty big cumulative bandwagon effect happening from here on among GA Dems.

[Skill and Chance]

I'm still a bit nervous about the GA special, but honestly, Warnock has seemingly enough momentum and room to grow at this point that I'd probably rather be him than either of the Republican candidates right now? (In terms of making the top two that is, I have no clue what would actually happen in a runoff).

Loeffler leaned so far into lowbrow populism that it scrambled the race, but Collins losing ground is good for the Dems most likely, because 1. he is easier to overtake than the high name rec incumbent for the 2nd runoff spot and 2. Loeffler has compromised her standing with swing voters in an R vs. D runoff

This. If the runoff becomes Warnock/Loeffler, then it's a true tossup. Loeffler has not done herself any favors with this primary right now.

Hard not to see the runoff going against the winning side in the presidential race if the fundamentals are close.

[wbrocks67]

I'm still a bit nervous about the GA special, but honestly, Warnock has seemingly enough momentum and room to grow at this point that I'd probably rather be him than either of the Republican candidates right now? (In terms of making the top two that is, I have no clue what would actually happen in a runoff).

Loeffler leaned so far into lowbrow populism that it scrambled the race, but Collins losing ground is good for the Dems most likely, because 1. he is easier to overtake than the high name rec incumbent for the 2nd runoff spot and 2. Loeffler has compromised her standing with swing voters in an R vs. D runoff

This. If the runoff becomes Warnock/Loeffler, then it's a true tossup. Loeffler has not done herself any favors with this primary right now.

Hard not to see the runoff going against the winning side in the presidential race if the fundamentals are close.

Yeah, will really depend. Especially with the SC and how that plays out, who wins the election presidentially, and if the Ossoff/Perdue race goes to a runoff, which I feel like it will.