Manitoba Election 2019/20

[DistingFlyer]

Looks now like a Tory lead of 17-18%, with only three constituencies left to declare a winner.

Usually the ridings that switch are a bit less predictable than this: there's usually a marginal or two that escapes, while one or two with bigger majorities go down. Not so much this time, though; the Tory seats with notional majorities of <10% were as follows:

Elmwood (0.0%) - NDP gain
Thompson (0.8%) - NDP gain
St. James (2.9%) - NDP gain
Fort Garry (3.6%) - NDP gain
St. Vital (7.4%) - NDP gain

Applying a uniform swing of 5%, all the ridings that you'd expect to fall have done so. There's only one outside this range that has gone: Transcona, with a notional Tory lead of 22%. That looks like being the result of NDP voters who went Liberal last time coming home again, as the Tory vote there is only down 5% (the provincial average), but the Liberal vote dropped more than 10%, allowing the NDP candidate to squeak in.

(McPhillips hasn't declared yet, and is still tight, though the Tories are leading at the moment, defending a notional majority of 14%.)

[trebor204]

All riding have been declared.

PC 36
NDP 18
LIB 3

[136or142]

Ridings I predicted incorrectly:

P.C wins I predicted to the NDP
1.Assiniboia
2.Brandon East
3.Fort Richmond
4.McPhillips

NDP wins I predicted to the P.C
1.Transcona

NDP wins I predicted to the Greens
1.Wolseley


The NDP did reasonably well in the rural based ridings of Dauphin and Selkirk where they've done well previously, suggesting that the NDP does still have some rural support.  However, the other small town/rural ridings where the NDP have previously done well: Swan River and Interlake-Gimli, the NDP did poorly in.

[lilTommy]

I expect McPhillips to go into a recount, with about 100 votes separating the PC and NDP... at least I'd ask for one if I were the NDP.

I think Transcona was a bit of a surprise win for the NDP, I thought McPhillips or Riel before Transcona. NDP regains "control" of the North. Some surprisingly strong NDP results in Daupihn (42%), Selkirk (35%) and Interlake-Gimli (32%)

Low end of what the NDP would consider a successful election.

Pretty decent night for the Liberals, holding, comfortably so, Tyndall Park and St. Boniface can be seen as a success and some strong results in Southern Winnipeg along with a couple of second place finishes.   

[DL]

The Greens ended being quite a wet firecracker. In they end they got just 6% of the vote and lost Wolseley by a wide margin. From the NDP POV this is a big deal since the moment you give the Greens any oxygen with a seat - they end up being perennial spoilers. Instead the Manitoba Greens are 'strangled at birth"

I don't think anyone in the NDP saw this election as winnable and it was more of a "recovery election" from 2016. If they had done a bit better maybe they could have landed 20 seats instead of 18, but after that there isn't much "low hanging fruit" unless they were to get the margin to mid single digits province wide. One thing that people may overlook is that things will likely get a lot better for Wab Kinew now. In the previous legislature he took over a bitter, demoralized and divided caucus full of old retreads from the Doer/Selinger years and by all accounts the experience in opposition was not a happy one. Now, not only has the NDP gained a net 5 seats compared to 2016, but 11 out of their 18 MLAs are new and these new MLAs are young, ethnically diverse and got there under Kinew and are not holdovers from the olden days. I think the NDP opposition will be much more united and effective now and Kinew will be much more able to put his stamp on things and exert much more control over the party. 

[lilTommy]

The Greens ended being quite a wet firecracker. In they end they got just 6% of the vote and lost Wolseley by a wide margin. From the NDP POV this is a big deal since the moment you give the Greens any oxygen with a seat - they end up being perennial spoilers. Instead the Manitoba Greens are 'strangled at birth"

I don't think anyone in the NDP saw this election as winnable and it was more of a "recovery election" from 2016. If they had done a bit better maybe they could have landed 20 seats instead of 18, but after that there isn't much "low hanging fruit" unless they were to get the margin to mid single digits province wide. One thing that people may overlook is that things will likely get a lot better for Wab Kinew now. In the previous legislature he took over a bitter, demoralized and divided caucus full of old retreads from the Doer/Selinger years and by all accounts the experience in opposition was not a happy one. Now, not only has the NDP gained a net 5 seats compared to 2016, but 11 out of their 18 MLAs are new and these new MLAs are young, ethnically diverse and got there under Kinew and are not holdovers from the olden days. I think the NDP opposition will be much more united and effective now and Kinew will be much more able to put his stamp on things and exert much more control over the party. 

To expand on that, of that 7; the Point Douglas MLA was elected 2017 by-election, Flin Flon and St. John's MLAs are 2016 crew, The Pas-Kameesak MLA was elected in 2015. Only 2 MLAs (Malloway and Wiebe) were part of the Sellinger gov't.

[DL]

and i think Wiebe was first elected in 2011 so the only true "retread" is Jim Maloway - who by all accounts is totally useless and just calling it in...but for a caucus of 18 to only have one MLA like that is not bad.

[lilTommy]

and i think Wiebe was first elected in 2011 so the only true "retread" is Jim Maloway - who by all accounts is totally useless and just calling it in...but for a caucus of 18 to only have one MLA like that is not bad.

Actually he is a 2016 crew as well, before that Jennifer Howard who was the Finance minister under Sellinger for a time (currently on the federal NDP campaign team) was the MLA.

As a New Democrat, I'd be happy if Maloway left... might be time to resign> he's been an MLA since 86' took a 3 year break to be an MP in 2008, then back to the leg in 2011. 

[DL]

Nope, Jennifer Howard was previously MLA for Fort Rouge where Wab Kinew is now MLA. Wiebe is MLA for Concordia which is Gary Doer's old seat

[MaxQue]

Best and worst seat by party:
PC best: Steinbach (81.7%)
PC worst: Wolseley (8.9%)

NDP best: Keewatinook (66.1%) (a gain over Liberals)
NDP worst: Borderland (3.9%)

Lib best: Tyndall Park (54.3%) (a gain over NDP)
Lib worst: The Pas-Kameesak (3.3%)

Green best: Wolseley (35.8%)
Lib worst: Tyndall Park (1.9%)

NDP path to a majority:
McPhillips   1,2
Southdale   5,1
Assiniboia   6,6
Dauphin   8,1
Rossmere   8,2
Riel   9,2
Radisson   10,3
Brandon East   15,1
Selkirk   15,6
Kildonan-River East   17,1
Seine River   19,1

[lilTommy]

Nope, Jennifer Howard was previously MLA for Fort Rouge where Wab Kinew is now MLA. Wiebe is MLA for Concordia which is Gary Doer's old seat

I absolutely just mixed up Wiebe and Kinew

PCs also have two new MLAs in Borderlands and Southdale.

- Greens came second in: 3 seats, Morden-Winkler, Turtle Mountain, Wolseley
- Liberals came in second in: 7 seats, Borderland, Dawson Trail, Fort Richmond, Keewatinook, The Maples, Tuxedo, Union Station

[DL]

NDP path to a majority:
McPhillips   1,2
Southdale   5,1
Assiniboia   6,6
Dauphin   8,1
Rossmere   8,2
Riel   9,2
Radisson   10,3
Brandon East   15,1
Selkirk   15,6
Kildonan-River East   17,1
Seine River   19,1

If the NDP was to aim for a majority in MB - its worth noting that 2 of the 3 Liberals seats - St. Boniface and Tyndall Park are normally NDP seats and would quickly go NDP if the Liberal incumbents didn't run again or in the context of a big NDP swing

[DistingFlyer]

Looking back to every election from 1958 to now, these are the safest for each major party:

PC
1958 - Joseph Jeannotte wins Rupertsland by 1831 (56.9%)
1959 - Joseph Jeannotte wins Rupertsland by 1681 (51.8%)
1962 - Joseph Jeannotte wins Rupertsland by 1814 (54.9%)
1966 - Sterling Lyon wins Fort Garry by 3696 (35.8%)
1969 - Sidney Spivak wins River Heights by 3050 (42.1%)
1973 - Earl McKellar wins Souris – Killarney by 3112 (43.7%)
1977 - Donald Orchard wins Pembina by 4073 (54.5%)
1981 - Donald Orchard wins Pembina by 5499 (67.1%)
1986 - Donald Orchard wins Pembina by 4326 (53.5%)
1988 - Jack Penner wins Rhineland by 4107 (62.5%)
1990 - Donald Orchard wins Pembina by 4664 (66.8%)
1995 - Albert Driedger wins Steinbach by 4769 (59.9%)
1999 - Jim Penner wins Steinbach by 4798 (65.7%)
2003 - Peter Dyck wins Pembina by 3817 (62.0%)
2007 - Kelvin Goertzen wins Steinbach by 5503 (74.3%)
2011 - Kelvin Goertzen wins Steinbach by 4981 (77.9%)
2016 - Kelvin Goertzen wins Steinbach by 6521 (83.3%)
2019 - Kelvin Goertzen wins Steinbach by 5623 (73.7%) (PROVISIONAL)

CCF/NDP
1958 - Arthur Wright wins Seven Oaks by 2100 (31.7%)
1959 - Arthur Wright wins Seven Oaks by 1916 (26.8%)
1962 - Ed Schreyer wins Brokenhead by 596 (14.2%)
1966 - Saul Miller wins Seven Oaks by 2699 (27.3%)
1969 - Sidney Green wins Inkster by 3012 (53.3%)
1973 - Ben Hanuschak wins Burrows by 4233 (58.8%)
1977 - Donald Malinowski wins Point Douglas by 2201 (44.7%)
1981 - Maureen Hemphill wins Logan by 3059 (58.6%)
1986 - Maureen Hemphill wins Logan by 2974 (57.7%)
1988 - Jay Cowan wins Churchill by 1377 (33.3%)
1990 - Elijah Harper wins Rupertsland by 2994 (61.0%)
1995 - Doug Martindale wins Burrows by 3482 (49.5%)
1999 - Conrad Santos wins Wellington by 3167 (53.5%)
2003 - Eric Robinson wins Rupertsland by 2041 (81.1%)
2007 - Steve Ashton wins Thompson by 2380 (57.9%)
2011 - Kevin Chief wins Point Douglas by 2889 (55.6%)
2016 - Kevin Chief wins Point Douglas by 1883 (38.3%)
2019 - Malaya Marcelino wins Notre Dame by 2572 (49.7%) (PROVISIONAL)

Lib
1958 - Edmond Prefontaine wins Carillon by 1386 (33.9%)
1959 - Elman Guttormson wins St. George by 908 (23.3%)
1962 - Elman Guttormson wins St. George by 1241 (33.9%)
1966 - Albert Vielfaure wins La Verendrye by 947 (35.5%)
1969 - Leonard Barkman wins La Verendrye by 882 (23.8%)
1973 - Steve Patrick wins Assiniboia by 796 (6.4%)
1977 - Lloyd Axworthy wins Fort Rouge by 667 (6.4%)
1981 - (Fort Rouge lost by 1927 (19.8%))
1986 - Sharon Carstairs wins River Heights by 1485 (14.5%)
1988 - Neil Gaudry wins St. Boniface by 3682 (39.2%)
1990 - Neil Gaudry wins St. Boniface by 2882 (32.4%)
1995 - Kevin Lamoureux wins Inkster by 1745 (20.2%)
1999 - Jon Gerrard wins River Heights by 465 (4.0%)
2003 - Jon Gerrard wins River Heights by 1825 (19.8%)
2007 - Jon Gerrard wins River Heights by 2419 (25.9%)
2011 - Jon Gerrard wins River Heights by 1367 (13.2%)
2016 - Jon Gerrard wins River Heights by 1745 (17.3%)
2019 - Jon Gerrard wins River Heights by 2762 (29.6%) (PROVISIONAL)

Of the 2019 figures, the one that may change is the NDP, as Keewatinook hasn't completed counting yet & may ultimately yield a bigger margin. We shall see.

The safest seat has usually been on the government side, but wasn't in 1981, or in any of the four NDP victories from 1999 to 2011 with the exception of 2003. The huge Tory wins in places like Steinbach were symptomatic of the problem the PCs had in those elections: racking up big margins in places they already held, but failing to recapture (or in some cases, even hold) marginals in southern & western Winnipeg.

The biggest Tory win since 1958 was, rather appropriately, Kelvin Goertzen's huge 83% majority in Steinbach in 2016 - the biggest margin for any party during this time, being rolled up in the midst of by far the biggest provincial victory.

The biggest NDP win was Eric Robinson's 81% margin in Rupertsland in 2003; also appropriate, since it was won in the election that saw the NDP's largest-ever share of the provincial vote (49.5%) and their biggest vote margin (13.3%), though not their biggest legislative majority.

The biggest Liberal victory was Neil Gaudry's 40% lead in St. Boniface in 1988, which took place amid the Liberals' best showing since 1958.

[136or142]

I expect McPhillips to go into a recount, with about 100 votes separating the PC and NDP... at least I'd ask for one if I were the NDP.

I think Transcona was a bit of a surprise win for the NDP, I thought McPhillips or Riel before Transcona. NDP regains "control" of the North. Some surprisingly strong NDP results in Daupihn (42%), Selkirk (35%) and Interlake-Gimli (32%)

Low end of what the NDP would consider a successful election.

Pretty decent night for the Liberals, holding, comfortably so, Tyndall Park and St. Boniface can be seen as a success and some strong results in Southern Winnipeg along with a couple of second place finishes.  

32% for the NDP in Interlake-Gimli would be decent for them if the P.Cs hadn't received 59% of the vote.  Can a near 2-1 defeat be considered 'surprisingly strong'?

These are my calculations of the vote in the city of Winnipeg.  Not only are the numbers unofficial, but I added up the numbers without a calculator, so they're doubly unofficial.

In the city of Winnipeg, the P.Cs won 15 seats, the NDP 14 and the Liberals 3.  In the 2016 election, the PCs won 17, the NDP 12, and the Liberals 2.  (There is one more Winnipeg riding after redistribution.)

City of Winnipeg totals
Total votes 272,408
P.C 101,700, 37.3%
NDP 100,193, 36.8%
Liberal 51,276, 18.8%
Green 17,071, 6.3%
Other 2,168

In 2016, It was something like the P.Cs had 43% of the vote in Winnipeg and the NDP 32%.

In Winnipeg, the P.Cs came 3rd in 4 ridings (St Douglas, Tyndall Park, Union Station and Wolseley.) and the NDP in 3 (Tuxedo, River Heights and Fort Richmond.)  The Liberals received over 15% of the vote in 16 of the 32 Winnipeg ridings.  Excluding the 3 Winnipeg ridings that the Liberals won, they received about 15% of the vote in the rest of Winnipeg.

Of the 32 Winnipeg ridings, 13 were won with over 50% of the vote.  In the rest of the province, all 25 ridings were won with over 50% of the vote.

The only ridings won with less than 40% of the vote were McPhillips and Burrows.  In Burrows, the candidate for the Manitoba Forward Party received 15.9% of the vote.

[136or142]

From Elections Manitoba, these are the results.  There are apparently still 10 polls outstanding in the riding of Flin Flon (out of 58.)

Total votes: 469,317
P.C: 220,961, 47.1%
NDP: 147,172, 31.4
Liberal: 67,936, 14.5%
Green: 30,168, 6.4%
Other: 3,080

There is a difference with the CBC reported results based on slightly different results reported in the riding of Turtle Mountain.

The Liberals and the Greens under-performed slightly in comparison to the polling with all of the difference going to the P.Cs.  However, most of the polls were within the margin of error.

Given the total results I calculated in Winnipeg

Total votes 272,408
P.C 101,700, 37.3%
NDP 100,193, 36.8%
Liberal 51,276, 18.8%
Green 17,071, 6.3%
Other 2,168

that leaves the rest of the province as
Total votes 196,909
P.C: 119,261, 60.6%
NDP: 46,979, 23.9%
Liberal: 16,660, 8.5%
Green: 13,097, 6.7%
Other: 912

In nearly all the non Winnipeg ridings where the Green ran a candidate, the finished ahead of the Liberals.

[DistingFlyer]

From Elections Manitoba, these are the results.  There are apparently still 10 polls outstanding in the riding of Flin Flon (out of 58.)

Total votes: 469,317
P.C: 220,961, 47.1%
NDP: 147,172, 31.4
Liberal: 67,936, 14.5%
Green: 30,168, 6.4%
Other: 3,080

There is a difference with the CBC reported results based on slightly different results reported in the riding of Turtle Mountain.

The Liberals and the Greens under-performed slightly in comparison to the polling with all of the difference going to the P.Cs.  However, most of the polls were within the margin of error.

Given the total results I calculated in Winnipeg

Total votes 272,408
P.C 101,700, 37.3%
NDP 100,193, 36.8%
Liberal 51,276, 18.8%
Green 17,071, 6.3%
Other 2,168

that leaves the rest of the province as
Total votes 196,909
P.C: 119,261, 60.6%
NDP: 46,979, 23.9%
Liberal: 16,660, 8.5%
Green: 13,097, 6.7%
Other: 912

In nearly all the non Winnipeg ridings where the Green ran a candidate, the finished ahead of the Liberals.

The Winnipeg results last time were PCs 43.3%, NDP 31.5%, Lib 17.1% & GP 6.7%; outside of Winnipeg, they were PCs 66.3%, NDP 18.1%, Lib 10.7% & GP 2.9%.

Given the redistribution, the figures won't exactly correspond with yesterday's boundaries but they should be close enough; therefore, the rise/fall in support for each party in each region was as follows:

Winnipeg
PC 37.3% (-6%)
NDP 36.8% (+5%)
Lib 18.8% (+2%)
GP 6.3% (-0%)

Rest of Province
PC 60.6% (-6%)
NDP 23.9% (+6%)
Lib 8.5% (-2%)
GP 6.7% (+4%)

The big rise in the rural Green vote is due more, I think, to an increase in candidates than anything else. That their vote should actually go down in Winnipeg is a big surprise, though. The Liberals obviously concentrated their efforts on Winnipeg (their best area for the last 30-40 years), and so were rewarded with a rise in support there while it fell by the same amount in the rural areas. The Tories changed almost identical amounts both inside & outside Winnipeg, as did the NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm willing to bet the NDP actually won more votes in Winnipeg. McPhillips contains West St. Paul RM, which usually goes PC.

Back to Malloway: I saw some pictures on social media of his campaign signs with the party's logo covered up. Hmmm.... it's going to be fun for him being the only White guy in caucus

[DC Al Fine]

I'm willing to bet the NDP actually won more votes in Winnipeg. McPhillips contains West St. Paul RM, which usually goes PC.

Back to Malloway: I saw some pictures on social media of his campaign signs with the party's logo covered up. Hmmm.... it's going to be fun for him being the only White guy in caucus

Is he seriously the only white male in caucus?

[lilTommy]

I'm willing to bet the NDP actually won more votes in Winnipeg. McPhillips contains West St. Paul RM, which usually goes PC.

Back to Malloway: I saw some pictures on social media of his campaign signs with the party's logo covered up. Hmmm.... it's going to be fun for him being the only White guy in caucus

No, but close. Wiebe, Lindsey, Wasyliw and Altomare. So 5, of 18.

Is he seriously the only white male in caucus?

[DistingFlyer]

The official counts are now completed, so some revisions to earlier figures/estimates can be made.

The safest constituencies for each party are now as follows:

PC - Kelvin Goertzen wins Steinbach by 5625 (73.6%)
NDP - Malaya Marcelino wins Notre Dame by 2626 (49.9%)
Lib - Jon Gerrard wins River Heights by 3182 (29.1%)

The average PC margin of victory was 2792, or 32.4%; for the NDP it was 1500, or 24.5%; and for the Liberals it was 2086, or 21.7%.


The Winnipeg/everywhere-else breakdown now looks like this:

Winnipeg
PC - 15 MLAs (36.7%) (-7%)
NDP - 14 MLAs (36.4%) (+5%)
Lib - 3 MLAs (18.8%) (+2%)
GP - no MLAs (7.3%) (+1%)

Rest of Manitoba
PC - 21 MLAs (61.1%) (-5%)
NDP - 4 MLAs (24.8%) (+7%)
Lib - no MLAs (8.6%) (-2%)
GP - no MLAs (5.0%) (+2%)


As for turnout, it remained at the low level at which it seems to have been stuck since 2003: 54.8%. The riding with the highest turnout was Interlake - Gimli at 65.6% (usually it's River Heights, but that came a close second this time with 65.5%); lowest was, as usual, Keewatinook, on 21.8% (even lower than the 24.3% in 2016, and the lowest of any constituency in decades).

Turnout in Tory constituencies was a little above average at 57.6%, while the three Liberal ridings averaged 60.8% (all had above-average turnouts). The NDP, as usual, had the lowest turnout in their ridings with 47.7%.